The 49ers rank 26th against slot receivers, where Jayden Reed lines up often. Reed is coming off a quiet game (two catches, 23 yards, TD), but he's liable to explode in any matchup. Reed has three 100-yard games and has cleared this prop total in six of 10 games.

Jordan Love had one bad throw last week in what was still a win against a tough Bears defense. The Packers have, frustratingly, been up and down all season. They get a gift here with a home game in Lambeau Field against a 49ers team without Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa and Trent Williams. San Francisco still has plenty of offensive talent, but it will be relying on Brandon Allen to deliver. His last start came in 2021, a game in which he compiled 136 yards on 29 pass attempts, and he’s 2-7 in that role for his career. This is also a revenge spot for Green Bay after losing to San Francisco in the 2023 playoffs. I would take the Packers at -6 (not higher).

Amid the injury absence of QB Brock Purdy, it's short-sighted to just assume the Packers will roll. They have covered just once in their past four wins and struggle to create separation against lesser teams than the 49ers. San Francisco is well equipped to "hide" backup Brandon Allen with a heavy dose of CMC alongside Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. In a desperation spot for the fading 49ers, look for them to at least take this to the wire.

Without QB Brock Purdy and DE Nick Bosa, expect the 49ers offense to lack the significant punch on both sides of the ball. Plus, the Packers will try to right the wrongs from a year ago in the NFC Divisional Playoffs. This will get ugly quick for San Francisco.

The 5-5 49ers travel to 7-3 Green Bay for a matchup and they're going to do it without quarterback Brock Purdy and defensive end Nick Bosa. Surprisingly the spread has only moved 3.5. Christian McCaffrey is not expected to get a full work load if any. And why risk George Kittle either? The 49ers are seriously banged up and they've been looking for anything and I don't think Brandon Allen is it. The Packers have won five of their last six and need to make a statement with the wounded duck. Packers cover.

The 49ers will be underdogs for the first time in -- wait for it -- 37 games. Their status is deserving. They are 5-5 straight-up. They will hold out their two key players, injured QB Brock Purdy and DE Nick Bosa. The former will be replaced by Brandon Allen, who last started three years ago with another team. The latter's absence will spare QB Jordan Love, who fares poorly under pressure, of feeling the heat usually applied by Bosa and allow him more time in the pocket. The spread would be larger -- and it might grow -- because the betting public cannot fathom a playoffs without the Niners. Until (or unless) they get healthy, the prospects for a San Fran-less postseason are ripe.

The 49ers are beat up heading into this game, and it appears that Brock Purdy is in danger of not playing. The 49ers' backup QB is Brandon Allen, and even though Purdy hasn't been his usual efficient self of late, that would mark a severe downgrade for San Francisco. I've still been aggressive with their rating and had them a half-point better than the Packers when healthy, making a fair spread Packers -2, but Allen starting would move that to at least Packers -7. For that reason, I'm jumping on a -3 now and will live with it if Purdy plays.

Until Green Bay's Jordan Love stops with the occasional wild overthrow and resulting INT, which should have cost the Packers the game against the Bears in Week 11, we have to keep playing this. Love looks to avoid becoming the first quarterback with a pick in his first nine games of a season since Peyton Manning with Denver in 2015. The Niners are among the league leaders with 11 INTs.

This line seems low to me, considering the fact that McCaffrey has received 42 combined touches in his first two games back from injury this season. Last year against the Packers in the Divisional Playoffs, he posted 128 yards on 24 touches. In 19 games played last season, CMC was over this line in 14 of them. I could see an 80 rushing / 50 receiving game on the low-side, so this one should fly over.

I don't honestly believe that Brock Purdy won't play Sunday and I don't think anyone else does, either, but hey on the off chance we'll go ahead and play this now even though this year I have preferred to sit and wait as long as possible on plays for the last updates. A few other key 49ers are in legitimate doubt led by left tackle Trent Williams. And I want to thank the hated Packers for last Sunday and officially ending the Matt Eberflus era (after the season). Expect a nice holiday platter ...

Is he really going to throw one for a 9th straight game? This has to end at some point, right? Maybe with fewer deep shots and a smarter game plan and attacking a defense that isn't that special with high-percentage passes? The 49ers have 11 INTs, so they aren't slouches when it comes to turning people over, but there is some regression come to them, too. Pass rush is spotty and no Nick Bosa would only help our cause. I suspect Green Bay tries to control the clock and run the ball a bunch. This kid is too smart and too talented to keep making the same mistakes over and over. For this return I'll ride it stops now in a playoff rematch.

The 49ers RZ offense is brutal, they are one of the worst 4th quarter teams in the NFL, and the injuries keep mounting. CMC is not a savior in this form and the Packers are highly motivated after giving away a playoff game at SF. Packers have plenty of flaws, too, but like the Chiefs they find ways to win games despite the QB's INT proclivity. They can pound the ball on the ground and now Nick Bosa is a health concern again too. Matt LaFleur is 24-5 SU at home vs teams outside the NFC North. SF on the road will be a problem here. Packers have better special teams and better defense and find ways to win games, unlike SF.