The Texans are great early. Even losing 2 straight to the Jets and Lions they DOMINATED the first half. This is 4.5 everywhere else so I’ll jump the 3.5 at tolerable odds

Nico Collins is back on the field for the first time since Week 5, and I love the value on his anytime TD prop. He's scored 10 TDs in 19 games with C.J. Stroud, including scoring in three of five games this year, and should be considered a coin flip to score in an average matchup. The Cowboys are still dealing with key issues at cornerback but even in Week 2 they were giving up big play TDs to the Saints in the passing game. Houston has sorely missed Collins' downfield ability, and I don't expect him to be under any restrictions tonight.

This prop hit for us last week with flying colors, so let’s go right back to it. Rush is up against a Texans defense that has been stingy against the pass behind elite CB Derek Stingley. The Cowboys have failed to establish a run game all season long, and this Houston front gets consistent QB pressure. Rush will be forced into 3rd & long often, and he will struggle under duress. Cowboys star WR Ceedee Lamb was dealing with back spasms this week, and if Dallas goes down big early I’m not sure how hard Lamb will play. We could very well see Rush get benched for Trey Lance again this week. The Cowboy’s season is toast, why not get Lance some reps?

I don’t see the Cowboys contributing much offense to this game. Dallas will be up against a Texans defense that has ranked Top 5 in defensive DVOA all year long. Backup QB Cooper Rush does not have the same offense that he had during his brief run of success in 2022. Rush threw for a paltry 45 yards last week, and was benched for 3rd-string QB Trey Lance. On defense, Dallas now has LB Micah Parsons back. The Cowboys defense ranks 5th in pressure rate, and can give the Texans O-line problems. C.J Stroud is one of the league’s most sacked quarterbacks. The Texans will feed RB Joe Mixon, the clock will bleed, and this game will go Under.

Based on what we saw last week, it's hard for me to imagine Dallas having much offensive success on Monday night -- especially if CeeDee Lamb is unable to play. I like Houston to get on the board first and go into the second quarter with the lead.

The Texans have gone under this number in four straight games, but I still like them to cash this bet. Dallas is a mess offensively, and I could see the Texans scoring a defensive touchdown to help their cause on MNF. Offensively, this is the spot I expect Houston to break out of its slump with Nico Collins returning to action. I see the Texans finishing with 27+ points here.

Houston hasn't been particularly great against the spread this year, going 4-6 ATS thus far. That said, I love this spot for them. Nico Collins is back, and carries no injury designation, Joe Mixon is having the best year of his career, and he'll be facing a Cowboys defense that is the second-worst against the run in the NFL this season. There's also the obvious issues for the Cowboys -- Dak Prescott being out for the season, CeeDee Lamb banged up, etc. I expect a double-digit win for Houston here on MNF.

The Houston Texans are slowly showing themselves to be a team that starts fast. Even in recent losses to the Jets and Lions, Houston played a great first half. Let’s ride that trend here… I think the Cowboys are lower than 36% to be ahead at the end of the first quarter.

This is a homecoming for Schultz and I’m sure the Texans know it too. He normally would be a 2.75 catch guy on this board but I edge him over to 3.25 because he will want to show out v his Ex.

Rush has never been a high completion, percentage guy. Whether it be this year or other years when he has filled in for Dak, The only real constant in his varied level of success is he’s not often a 65% guy. If he throws it 35-40x I’ll lose but in anything close to traditional, I think he’s under

I realize this is a bit of a public play, but the volume that makes and has has been quite shocking. If Houston. Avoids a negative game script and if Mixon does not get dinged up, he should get more than 20 carries in this game.

Cooper Rush threw for 45 yards on 23 attempts last week, and now he faces another elite pass defense. Houston can get pressure with its front four, leaving seven back in coverage. Cowboys receivers will struggle to create separation. Even though this number has fallen, I bet Rush to go Under his passing yards in another brutal matchup. Don't forget that Rush also threw for just 115 yards on 25 attempts at Atlanta in Week 10.

The Cowboys struggled offensively even with a healthy Dak Prescott. CeeDee Lamb was largely benefitting from elite volume and target share. Now, with Cooper Rush, Dallas is going to struggle to sustain drives even more, reducing Lamb's opportunities. Couple that with a stingy Texans' defense that ranks 8th in EPA allowed per dropback and 4th in success rate, and this is a good spot to fade Lamb.

The Texans have only gone over twice and 10 games this season and have stayed under in their last four games. Nico Collins is expected to be back at wide receiver which should help their offense but the Cowboys are in the mess with Cooper Rush. They were having trouble scoring with Dak Prescott at QB and Rush won't help the matter. The Texans No. 3 defense will help keep this game low scoring. Under is the play.

The Cowboys haven't won a game at home this season and they've lost four in a row and they've lost quarterback Dak Prescott for the season. Cooper Rush is now the quarterback but even with Prescott they only covered two games this season. The Texas haven’t been much better lately losing three of their last four with their only win against the Colts. They lost to the Lions after Jared Goff threw five interceptions. Their saving grace for the season has been the No. 3 defense in the NFL allowing 288 yards per game. The Texans have only won one game by more than seven but I think this is another. Texans cover.

The contrarian angle gets a big test tonight in Arlington as there is little other to suggest making the Cowboys a recommendation. Playing at home at Jerry Jones AT&T Stadium certainly hasn't been a boost, losers of their last five and no covers their last six at home. No Dak Prescott, either, and HC Mike McCarty an apparent lame duck. So what is the rationale? Consider that the Texans, while in the AFC playoff mix, usually play 'em close, have lost three of four, and have only won once (at the Patriots) by more than seven points. They couldn't even beat the Jets a couple of weeks ago. It's also the nature of the NFL, and sometimes that's enough to take the leap. Play Cowboys

The Texans have lost 3 out of 4 and were clearly one of the more overrated teams coming into 2024, but this is the ultimate get right spot against a Cooper Rush led Cowboys team. It's tough to lay this many points on a road team that has not played well, but don't forget the Texans went up huge against the Lions last week before wilting in the second half. It'll be a priority for Houston to finish this game and I don't think we see any let down like we did last week. Nico Collins getting added to the mix pushes this one over the top.

Locked this in with the Texans late Sunday night assuming the hook would come for the Cowboys, and it has at this update. Nico Collins is a difference maker for CJ Stroud and this offense. While Houston collapsed in the second half against Detroit, that was a learning lesson for a young team, and it's not like Dallas has the same kind of firepower. I trust DeMeco Ryans to game plan around the Cowboys' limited offense, which has been held to single digits in two of its last four games. Having extensive film on Cooper Rush makes him less of a surprise than in the past, and Dallas doesn't have a running game strong enough to keep Houston honest.

Joe Mixon is expected to get about 20 carries -- he has at least 24 in four straight games -- and I bet that on one of them he'll rip off a run of 16-plus yards. The Lions' elite rush defense did not let Mixon get going last week, but this is a much softer matchup. Dallas ranks 24th in explosive rushes allowed. In the four games before facing Detroit, Mixon cleared this prop in every game, with rushes of 59, 32, 21 and 29 yards. It doesn't hurt that Nico Collins is back, as that should cause Dallas to play fewer stacked boxes.

Texans were very deliberate with Collins, and many believed he was ready for last week's game. That leads me to think he is way more than just a decoy for this game, and the Texans pass game is desperate for a deep threat who CJ Stroud trusts. Collins is over this in 7 of the 9 road games he has played with Stroud (including playoffs), and 6 straight games overall. They like to shock the opposing defense early in games on the road to try to play with a lead and I can't imagine he doesn't get ample chances here. Dallas corners love to gamble and they miss a lot, allowing easy chunk yards. Only 4 teams have allowed more 25+ yd completion than Cowboys.

Everybody runs wild on the Cowboys and few backs are getting more volume than Mixon. He's been frustrated at times on the sidelines even in games where he got 25 carries. The Texans run game is their main thing on offense and even getting healthier at WR, the downfield passing game is skittish and the OL has major tackle issues. They can't let Micah Parsons wreck this game and running a hefty back right at him til he wilts makes all the season in the world. Mixon has double-digit carries in 6 games this season and gone over 100 yards rushing in 5 of them. Dallas has no DTs who can space eat or run stuff.

The Texans ride him hard. Getting Nico Collins back may cut down on some of his carries but the dude has 24+ in 4 straight and 5 of the 7 he has played this season. They need this game, the Cowboys can get after the passer and the Texans OL sucks in pass pro but can get the run game going. The OC is scared of his own shadow and the QB is a shell of himself on the road. Cowboys are 29th in run D success rate and 31st in EPA. Mixon is a throwback bellcow in this offense and while they number is high, he has been getting to 25 whether ahead or behind.

The Texans offense stinks on the road, and Dallas's D is much more menacing with Micah Parsons back. Texans terrible OL will be a problem and lead to more uber-conservative playcalling. HOU scored more than 22 on road just once this season and avg 20.6/G on road since start of '23. CJ Stroud avg just 212 pass yds/G on road in career. DAL scored 20 or less in 4 of last 6 at home. Cooper Rush can't get it done and Texans play stout D. DAL games go over at home because opposing team scores a ton but I don't see that here. DAL averaging under 19/G during 6 game home losing streak.

The Cowboys give up 152.1 rushing yards per game, second-most in the NFL. At home they're giving up more than 38 points per game. The matchup sets up well for Joe Mixon and the Houston offense, which could regain top form thanks to Nico Collins' return. Cooper Rush amassed 45 passing yards on 23 attempts last week. Look for the Cowboys to fall to 0-5 at home with another double-digit loss.

The Dallas offense could do absolutely nothing against the Eagles last week, averaging 2.6 yards per play and getting 14 yards or less on 11 of their 13 drives. The Texans defense is first in yards allowed per drive and is fresh off intercepting Jared Goff five times. The Texans offense continues to struggle, with just 3.8 yards per play against the Lions, and even if Nico Collins is back, a Cowboys pass rush that now has Micah Parsons back could make it tough for C.J. Stroud to have much time to throw behind a struggling O-line. If Houston's offense shows up, we could still get a 31-10 cover, but this feels more like a relatively no-sweat Under.