Drake Maye has energized New England with his willingness to run. This is a fairly good number that has risen throughout the week. Rams pressure, so I think he will take off and make plays in what should be a negative game script.

Such a tough spot for the Rams off a Monday night game, traveling across country and a 10 a.m. Pacific start. The Patriots have a very capable defense and that unit should only get better today with the returns of DT Christian Barmore and safety/captain Kyle Dugger. The Pats are also as healthy as they have been offensively in weeks and rookie QB Drake Maye has been pretty solid since taking over. I would have liked this a lot more had the Rams won and not lost at home on Monday, but I still like it.

While rookie QB Drake Maye may not have a plethora of weapons in New England, he's made up for it with his raw talent, athleticism, and willingness to throw downfield. Maye has cleared this passing prop in three of the four full games he's played this season. He'll likely have a negative game script to be throwing often, as the Patriots are 3.5-point underdogs to the Rams. And the Rams are a matchup we can target for quarterbacks, as they have given up an average of 241 passing yards per game. I'm backing Maye to exceed his passing prop Sunday at this very attainable line.

Drake Maye has shown a willingness to scramble and has ripped off runs of 18, 26 and 19 yards the past three games. Now he faces a Rams defense that leads the NFL in pressure rate. I'm expecting the Rams to be playing from ahead, and for Maye to do everything he can -- including taking off and running -- to bring the Pats back. This prop varies widely across the major books, so please shop around.

While the Patriots have gotten a shot in the arm with Drake Maye under center, they have largely taken advantage of limited offenses this season. The Rams are not one of those, and while they had offensive line issues last week against the underrated Dolphins, they’ve had another week for Sean McVay to adjust and better protect Matthew Stafford. Conversely, Los Angeles’ defensive front should dominate New England, which neither has the weapons nor offensive consistency of Miami. The Rams feel undervalued here with their full complement of playmakers in tow. They will be far more successful in the red zone than they were against the Dolphins, and I would bet McVay leans on some play action to get it done.

Two items that do not go together: the Patriots and a mid-level total. No New England game all season has drawn a number this high. Rookie QB Drake Maye is settling in, but he still lacks playmakers and a protective O-line. Similarly, the Rams' blocking for QB Matthew Stafford has been spotty, and the constant personnel shuffling on the line continues this week. L.A. has gone Under in four of its last five games, usually with totals just a few points higher than this one.

I like this spot for Demario Douglas against a Rams pass defense that is 22nd in EPA allowed per dropback, in addition to ranking 30th in PFF's coverage grade. Douglas is coming off a season low 62% route participation in Week 10 (if we throw out his London illness game), however this can largely be attributed to the Patriots using a lot of heavy personnel and 2 TEs as they played with a lead wire to wire. I expect Douglas to be on the field who closer to 80% in a game the Patriots are likely to be trailing against a Rams team that is a -4.5 favorite.

The Patriots are getting better every week, and Drake Maye looks like he could be the answer to New England's quarterback questions. That said, this is basically a must-win spot for the Rams, and it's hard for me to see them having back-to-back subpar offensive performances when they have their full arsenal of weapons available. New England will put up a good fight, but I like the Rams to head into halftime up by a field goal or more.

Kupp has played 12 road games in outdoor stadiums in his career with Matthew Stafford - he averages 8 receptions/game in those instances. He is over this total in 9 of those 12 games. He has been forced fed lately since coming back from injury and has 18 catches in the last two games. Rams badly need this game and he is the possession guy who makes it go, especially with the run game faltering. Pats D is pretty ordinary, and Rams have no shortage of options in pass game. Can't just squat on Kupp.

Los Angeles is off a poor loss to the Dolphins. New England’s defense is allowing 25.3 points per game at home and rank last in pass rate. The Rams defense ranks first in pressure rate, while New England’s offensive line has dealt with injuries all season and ranks 30th in pressure allowed. The Rams have lost 10 of their last 11 games on the road following a loss since Sean McVay took over, however, this seems like a good buy low spot.

The Rams’ offense embarrassed itself on Monday Night Football, failing to score a touchdown despite numerous red-zone trips. Look for a nice bounceback against the worst pass defense LA has played this season. The O-line definitely will look better in this matchup. Kudos to New England for taking advantage of a dead Bears’ team, but this spread should be more in line with what the Jets laid in Foxborough three weeks ago: a full touchdown. With all his weapons healthy, Matthew Stafford will rebound in a must-win spot.