With Nico Collins and Will Anderson ruled out, I'm going to go ahead and take the Lions on the road. I think this Texans team was overrated coming into the season and without some of their starters, it's a tough matchup against a great Lions team on both sides of the ball. I don't think we're going to see many flat spots from the Lions this season and I'm happy to jump on this number as I think they win by 4 or more.

There are many situations in which the Texans would be the play in this spot. The way Sunday’s game sets up is not one of them. Houston will have Tank Dell, but he’s dealing with a back injury that could flare up. Nico Collins was taken off the IR but will not play after barely participating in Friday’s practice. Will Anderson is also out, which should take pressure off Jared Goff allowing him to stand upright. The Lions are mostly full strength (save for the OT that would’ve blocked Anderson), and they get Jameson Williams back to help further stretch the field. Detroit has a clear advantage in the run game and should therefore be able to control the clock.

It's very likely we see the Texans move the ball down the field via the pass as the Detroit run defense is quite good. With that in mind, I expect Stroud to take plenty of deep shots, much like he has over the past couple of games (he hit this prop in each of those games). The Lions play a lot of man defense and I think we'll see a few deep shots to guys like Tank Dell (and hopefully Nico Collins if healthy). I've also noticed Stroud using his feet lately to buy some extra time and escape the pocket, which may be all he needs to find his target down the field.

Explosive WR Jameson Williams returns from his 2-game suspension, despite getting into more extracurricular mishaps during his time away. Although Williams has had issues, Lions head coach Dan Campbell continues to back him and his character. Williams has spoken about his eagerness to prove himself as a good player, and a good person. Lions OC Ben Johnson has a dynamic Swiss army knife in Williams, who has the potential to clear this total in one creative play. I’ll make a .5unit wager on Williams to make a splash in his return back to action.

Alex Anzalone wears the dot for the Lions, but Jack Campbell played all but five snaps alongside him in Week 9. Campbell has made 24 combined tackles the past two weeks. In a matchup against the run-heavy Texans, who love to utilize Joe Mixon, I bet Campbell to record at least eight combined stops.

Texans RB Joe Mixon has been an extremely productive workhorse. Mixon has rushed for 100+ yards in four straight weeks, and has gotten 20+ carries in three consecutive weeks. Houston comes into this Sunday night matchup on extended rest, so I expect Mixon to get another heavy workload. All the talk regarding rushing props in this game will likely be about the vaunted RB duo on the Lions, but I’ll back the consistency of Joe Mixon.

The Texans are 7-2 to the Under this season, and 4-0 to the Under when playing at home. Star WR Nico Collins is a ‘game time decision’, and even if he does play I expect it will be in a limited capacity. CJ Stroud continues to struggle in his sophomore campaign with an injured supporting cast. Houston’s defense has been stout all year, and remain a Top 5 unit in defensive DVOA. Their D-line should give the Lions a good battle at the line of scrimmage, when forced to stop Detroit’s two-headed monster RB attack of David Montgomery & Jamhyr Gibbs. Although the Lions have a high-octane offense, they are just 4-4 to the Over this year. I like the Under 50.

I hit this Gibbs' longest rush prop on SportsLine last week and I'm going back to the well. Gibbs has been incredibly consistent this season with explosive runs and hitting his longest rush prop. He has hit over this number for of longest rush in six of eight games this season. Gibbs also has a great matchup against the Texans' run defense. The Texans defense has given up the 3rd highest rate of explosive runs. If it's not broken, don't fix it! This will be a fun Sunday Night Football sweat that hopefully we can hit early!

Houston could get a significant boost if Nico Collins is cleared to play before the game (Tank Dell is expected to play). Still I like the Lions in this spot. Detroit is an absolute unit right now, and they look like the best team in the NFC. I really like getting this first half number under 3. Look for the Lions to get off to a hot start again on Sunday night.

The Texans have given up 24 catches to tight ends all season. Sam LaPorta has seen his role diminish, as he's gone Under this prop total in five of the past seven games. Jameson Williams returns for the Lions, giving Jared Goff another explosive target, and his presence could mean one or two fewer targets for LaPorta.

The Detroit Lions are 7-1 and 7-1 against the spread, more importantly they've covered their last six games. I almost think that coach Dan Campbell knows the spread and wants to cover because he always does. He goes for it in odd situations on 4th Down and their 32 points scored per game is No. 1 in the NFL. Jared Goff has thrown for more than 80% in his last three games and the Lions are No. 1 completing 74% of their passes. This looks like a machine destined for the Super Bowl. They're just as good as good in the dome as they are in cold weather. The Texans have the No. 2 defense allowing 287 yards per game. Lions to cover.

The Texans' receiving corps for this game is in flux with Nico Collins and Tank Dell both questionable, and the possibility of Robert Woods as WR1 has me rolling with the Lions in this spot. They have their own key injury with Taylor Decker ruled out, but that's mitigated by the Texans also not having Will Anderson. The Texans' receiver situation could make it impossible to backdoor a cover if they fall behind against the Lions like so many teams have this season. If the Texans have Collins and Dell available, I still don't expect this to get below 3, while both getting ruled out Sunday should shoot this line past 4.

C.J. Stroud has simply not been the same QB after Nico Collins was placed on IR 4 weeks ago. It looks unlikely Collins will be returning to the lineup this week against the Lions, however I do think this is a spot we're going to see the Texans be aggressive through the air. For starters, Stroud and Co. are playing a Lions defense that is a pass funnel, opposing teams are shifting to the pass at 3% PROE. That is two fold as Detroit is an explosive and high scoring offense which invites QBs to have to air it out, in addition to Detroit having a strong run defense. Opposing QBs are averaging 38.25 passing attempts per game against the Lions.

The Lions have no problem scoring TDs on the ground or through the air, but the RZ has been great for Jared Goff throughout his time in Detroit. He has 13 passing TDs int he last 6 games and the Texans have allowed an NFL-high 19 TD passes and St. Brown has scored a TD in 6 straight games and is getting open with ease. Will be a perfect climate to chuck the ball around. Oh, and he's caught his last 30 targets from Goff. For this kind of value, I can't resist.

Let's start with the fact the Texans have allowed 19 passing TDs already, most in the NFL. And Goff has done this in 5 of the last 6 games despite barely throwing the ball in some of those games because they were already blowing out an opponent or playing in a crazy wind. He has 13 TD passes in his last 6 games and this is back in a dome environment where he is at his best. Texans are 30th in RZ D because they can't defend the pass in tight spaces and the Lions have more than enough weapons as pass catchers. Dude (almost) literally isn't throwing any incomplete passes the last 6 weeks.