This total seems awfully high with Tampa Bay injured WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin missing. Nearly half of Baker Mayfield's passes as a Bus have been addressed to the elite pair. His passer rating with them on the field is far better than without. He surely will make shorter throws -- and probably fewer overall than usual. If the Falcons land on their average of 23 ppg, the Bucs would have to exceed it for an Over to prevail. Doesn't seem likely.

White was already essentially a WR in disguise in the Tampa Bay backfield. Given the club's dire injury situation at WR, look for White to exceed a number he already has clipped three times this season.

The Bucs limped out of last week's 41-31 loss to the Ravens. WR Mike Evans re-injured his hamstring, and WR Chris Godwin is done for the season after dislocating his ankle. Bucs rookie RB Bucky Irving is also banged up, but is expected to play. As impressive as Baker Mayfield has been thus far, I'm not so sure he can beat a division rival on a short week after losing his WR1 & WR2, who are both studs. I'm not all that high on this Falcons team, but I do think they will simply have more firepower in this matchup. Atlanta QB Kirk Cousins is 40-26 ATS following a loss, and 3-0 SU against NFC South opponents this year.

Bucs tight end Cade Otton has topped this number in three of his past five and finished with 44 yards in another. His target share could skyrocket with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both out.

Drake London leads NFL receivers in red zone catches (10) and is 2nd among receivers in red zone targets (12). He has scored a touchdown in five of seven games played this season and we are getting London's Anytime Touchdown at plus money. This is a gift!

With the loss of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, TE Cade Otton will likely be a top target for QB Baker Mayfield. Last week after Evans left the game, Otton saw 10 targets. I like Otton to have a high target share and air yards share this week vs. the Falcons.

Robinson's gotten back on track against bad run defenses, gaining at least 95 rush yards in each of his past two games. The Bucs run defense isn't bad no matter how Derrick Henry made them look on Monday, but changes to their offense make me think this will be more of a grind-it-out type of game unlike what we saw a few weeks ago. I don't see the Bucs offense being the same without Evans and Godwin, and that means fewer points for them. It should also mean a slower-pace for the Falcons, giving more opportunities to Robinson, who's earned them over the past two weeks as he's thankfully out-touched Tyler Allgeier 30 to 13 in the first three quarters.

Bijan Robinson has turned his season around after a very slow start that saw him struggling toting the rock. While Bijan was struggling on the ground, he's been elite out of the backfield as a receiver and ranks 1st in ESPNs receiver rating metric, which is why I like this combo line as he's going to be heavily involved regardless of gamescript. Bijan's rushing efficiency has improved in recent weeks and I like this matchup for him against a Bucs defense that has the 9th worst EPA per rush.

Kirk Cousins trusts him a ton in the RZ, and he is also a threat from longer range. He ate up the Bucs a few weeks back, catching 12 of 13 targets for 154 yards and a TD. He has a TD in 5 of the last 6 games. Bucs secondary is looking shaky and they have to blitz to generate any pass rush - Cousins looks his way in a lot of those spots. London leads the NFL with 10 RZ catches, is 2nd with 12 RZ targets and is tied for 1st with 5 RZ receiving TDs. Falcons array of body types presents match-up problems in tight spaces.

I realize he just lost his two best WRs, but this system and scheme ain't bad and he can still produce in the RZ throwing to a multitude of backs and tight ends and other WRs will step up, too. This is how they score the ball, Baker threw for 3 against Atlanta just a few weeks ago, the Falcons have no pass rush and Mayfield has hit this in 4 straight games and 5 of 7. Falcons have already allowed 10 passing TDs, 26th in the NFL. Mike Evans had been limited with a serious hamstring issue already and was still very productive. Even when he throws picks he keeps slingign the ball in the RZ.

The Bucs are down their top two receivers, who might be the best WR duo in the league at this point. It's a massive downgrade for the offense, which is No. 1 in third-down percentage this season but will have to lean on Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard and Cade Otton in those situations moving forward. While the Bucs scored 30 in the first meeting between these teams, I expect some touchdowns to turn into FGs and some FGs to turn into punts even against a defense without a pass rush like Atlanta.

This game was heading to a total north of 50 before the Bucs lost WR Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. And they are special players. But neither defense is special, they just combined for 66 points 2 weeks ago, this series is 8-3 to the over (average score 53.5), with an average score of 51.8 in last 5 at TB. Bucs are 5-2 to over, averaging 55.85/G (2nd) and ATL is over in 3 of last 4. Both teams have played 4 straight games over this total. Baker Mayfield has thrown 2+ TD in 4 straight games, and Kirk Cousins just shredded a TB D that is 28th in Yds/play. Bucs have scored 30+ in 4 straight and can still move ball with RBs/TEs.

Atlanta struggled on offense in Week 7, and Tampa Bay lost Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to injury. But in my opinion, this point total is a bit of an overreaction. The Falcons are much better than what they showed on Sunday, and Baker Mayfield leads the NFL in touchdown passes (18). Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive scoring and I still expect plenty of offense in this Week 8 matchup. I see this game finishing with 50+ total points scored.