Mike Evans will draw Marshon Lattimore and their battles have been legendary. Very quietly on the other side Chris Godwin has had monster games in this spot and should catch six passes in this game

It’s too attractive to take Olave to catch 5 at plus money. The new QB S Rattler has talked all week how they need to get Olave the ball. I’ll bank on it

This was a more attractive line before the quarterback decision was made with the Saints turning to Spencer Rattler, but he’s still a rookie fifth-round pick making his first start against a Buccaneers defense that proven capable of stepping up against limited competition. The rest advantage is stark with Tampa Bay on a long week and New Orleans on a short week starting a new QB. Baker Mayfield has been excellent on the road (9-2 ATS), and while the Bucs may be down Rachaad White, Bucky Irving has done well. Tampa Bay has been inconsistent defensively and didn’t come through against Atlanta, so there should be a motivational edge there as well.

Both of these teams are banged up, but the Saints are in a worse spot in my eyes. The New Orleans Offensive Line is beat up, and Spencer Rattler is a fifth-round rookie. The Bucs are a tough test for any QB, let alone a guy who was a third-stringer last week. I like the Bucs by a touchdown here.

Spencer Rattler holds the ball more than just about any quarterback on the planet. Todd Bowles will blitz him and he will throw one to the other shirts

The New Orlean Saints find themselves on a short week against a Buccaneers team coming off a Thursday game. On top of that, they are going to be starting a rookie fifth round quarterback in Spencer Rattler. Look for the Saints to rely on their defense and have enough in the arsenal to move the ball with Rattler. The defense sparked the Saints in an upset late in the season during the Buccaneers four game win streak. Grab the home underdog here in the Saints.

Defenses should lock horns here. Saints rookie QB Spencer Rattler will have to deal with a blitz-heavy attack all day from Bucs coach Todd Bowles. Expect New Orleans to lean on the run game as much as possible. I still believe this Bucs team is grossly overrated. Their talented receivers will be matched up against solid cover corners, CB Paulson Adebo and CB Marshon Lattimore. The Bucs will likely be without RB Rachaad White, and will lean on rookie RB Bucky Irving to establish their run game. Having their schedule impacted by the hurricane this week, I expect Tampa Bay to struggle out of the gate here. I have a hard time seeing these offenses light it up in a divisional clash. Grab Under 42.

That's right, I'm backing rookie QB Spencer Rattler making his first start for the Saints. Rattler has mobility upside that Derek Carr doesn't. With an injured offensive line, that may prove very useful for this offense. More than anything, I'm backing this Saints defense to keep the Bucs in check. They have quietly been Top 10 in defensive DVOA all season, and will return a key piece in veteran LB Willie Gay. This is a tough spot for Tampa Bay, who had their home stadium inundated with rain from the hurricane, and have been forced to practice elsewhere. Bucs RB Rachaad White's status is 'doubtful', and QB Baker Mayfield is 15-26-1 ATS when playing as the favorite. Who dat say dey gonna beat dem Saints!

Rachaad White is doubtful so Tampa Bay's Bucky Irving should set a career high in carries on Sunday barring injury. Who else is there to run the ball? Sean Tucker? Our model has Irving with 16.1 carries.

This is a lot of juice to lay but I'm extra confident considering McLaughlin is 10-for-10 on field goals this season and has multiple successful kicks in 4 of 5 games. Plus, New Orleans has given up four made field goals in each of 3 of their last 4 contests. I believe he'll get plenty of work in a game that Tampa Bay should win.

The Saints are crumbling and Mayfield has tossed two or more three times already this season. He threw 5 of them in two games against NO last year. He's thrown 11 of them already on the season. He's thrown 2 or more TDs in four of his last 5 homes games and 5 of the last 7. Saints top ranked RZ D gives me some pause, but Bucs can score on explosives from outside the zone, too. No shortage of weapons to stretch the defense.

Spencer Rattler sees his first NFL action against a defense led by Todd Bowles, who has had a lot of success against young QBs when his defense is healthy. On that front, Calijah Kancey practiced in full Wednesday and Antoine Winfield was limited, so the Bucs defense may be relatively whole for the first time all year. Bowles should have no issue finding an edge against a collapsing Saints O-line, and plenty of other key offensive players didn't practice Wednesday. My one concern is if the Bucs have difficulty focusing on this matchup with Hurricane Milton affecting their community this week, but as long as Bowles has them focused I can't see many points from New Orleans.

The customary pick with a rookie quarterback making his initial start is ATS on the opponent. However, the Bucs find themselves in an unusual predicament. Hurricane Milton drove them from their home, and they are spending the week in New Orleans, which poses a potential distraction. The more predictable facet is a low score by the Saints with Spencer Rattler at QB. He was not exactly an early draft pick, going in the fifth round. After a blazing start with 91 points rung up in its two opening games, New Orleans has regressed, tallying 49 in the past three -- all straight-up setbacks.

I don’t think Derek Carr is going to play and I’m gonna jump on this now

I’m not sure if Carr will play and if he does play if he’ll be 100%. Without him they will struggle and with him they are still not elite right now.