This one is simple: Drake Maye is talented, but raw, and I think the Houston Texans' defense will give him a harsh 'Welcome to the NFL' moment on Sunday. Texans win by 10.

Outside of losing Nico Collins, the Texans will have the rest of their offensive playmakers back with Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce both suiting up behind C.J. Stroud. Houston found itself last week against a much better Buffalo team, while New England is turning the page to rookie Drake Maye behind a lacking offensive line with a dearth of playmakers to help him. Not sure I want a new QB making his first start against a DeMeco Ryans defense that already has plenty of experience with mobile signal callers this season. The Patriots are a straight up bad team that has been beaten handily by worse offenses. This is a significant spread, and rookie QBs have surprised this season, but others have better surrounding casts.

When Forrest Gump was in college, he was a runner. Same thing for Drake May. He will use his legs at least four times in this game. Love this play.

Drake Maye gets his first start on Sunday. An underrated part of Maye's game is his ability to run the football. Last season at North Carolina, Maye averaged 9.5 rushing attempts per game. The Patriots have the worst offensive line in the NFL, so I expect Maye to use his legs out of necessity. Houston has faced three mobile quarterbacks and allowed over 40 rushing yards each time - Josh Allen (54), Caleb Williams (44) and Anthony Richardson (56). Maye's rushing total feels a little low here.

Schultz was over this total last week for the first time -- and it's not coincidental that it happened in the same game where Nico Collins got hurt. Case in point: Schultz had a 19% target share last week. Schultz also has a career catch rate of 69%, so if Stroud throws 30 times, Schultz should see six targets, and based on his career numbers then four grabs are in play. For what it's worth, the Patriots have allowed at least four catches to a tight end in three straight games. It's worth a sprinkle, especially at plus-money.

With Rhamondre Stevenson out, the Patriots should be compelled into throwing more. And what better time for that than in their prized rookie's very first start? This is a team that threw the ball 30-plus times in each of its past two games anyway, so dialing up throws isn't rare for them. And game script should also favor Maye throwing a bunch because the Texans, even without Nico Collins, figure to put points up and force the Patriots to chase. In fact, Houston has seen 30-plus pass attempts in 3 of its past 4 games, and 28 pass attempts in each of those four. The Patriots should *want* to see what Maye can do, so let's capitalize on that.

The 29% target share that Nico Collins was receiving has to go somewhere and with top cornerback Christian Gonzalez likely on Stefon Diggs, Dell should see plenty of targets coming his way. Over the last two weeks, he's caught nine passes for 100 yards combined and is showing signs of breaking out of his slump to begin 2024. I feel strongly about him topping 60 yards this week and potentially laddering this up to 80.

This is a bad week for a rookie QB to get his first start, but so is life in the NFL. I would expect the Patriots defense to play their best game and keep this one closer for a few quarters, but their offense going up against a Texans pass rush doesn't bode well for them to keep it close in the 2nd half.

Rookie Drake Maye probably can't be worse than Jacoby Brissett, as the Pats' passing game ranks dead last in most categories. At least he can escape pressure and he is willing to throw the ball downfield. True, this is a brutal matchup, facing Danielle Hunter (29 pressures) and Will Anderson (23 pressures) behind a porous offensive line. But this bet is also against a Houston offense missing difference-maker Nico Collins and, perhaps, Joe Mixon. When Collins left last week vs. Buffalo, Houston could not score another touchdown for the final three quarters. Christian Gonzalez can severely limit Stefon Diggs. Houston's four wins have come by a total of 15 points.

Drake Maye will make his debut in a tough matchup against a Texans defense that's fourth in net yards per pass attempt and allowing 4.8 yards per play while behind an undermanned O-line that looked awful last week. Maybe his talent is enough to carry the offense to a good game anyway, but the cards are stacked against him. As they are for the Texans on the road against a quality Patriots defense with Nico Collins out and Joe Mixon still working his way back. This feels like a game with limited first-half scoring that finds a way to stay under.

The rule of thumb here is to almost always play against a rookie QB in his debut start. With the Patriots leaning toward Drake Maye, the TD spot seems low against the fourth-ranked defense. Maye will have little help on offense, as ousted starter Jacoby Brissett can attest. The Pats average a rock-bottom 12.4 ppg. Brissett has only thrown one pick, so expect Maye to at least tie him here. The Texans should be ultra-confident coming off a compelling win over Buffalo.

I want to take the Texans here, with NE 1-11-2 ATS at home in last 14, but waiting to see if this goes to 6.5. Pats are 11-5 to the under at home last 16, they have scored just 73 points during their 7-game home losing streak and Texans are 4-1 to the under this season and aren't nearly as efficient on offense on the road and outdoors. Pats have dissent in the locker room and a QB controversy brewing. Averaging just 12 PPG this season. Pats have played 3 games under 27 points already this season. Games set this low tend to go under more than 70% of the time.