Why not have both! Bijan Robinson was embarrassingly used by last year’s coaching staff but has 111 and 122 in the first 2 weeks of this season and has over 110 in 3 of his last 4 games. He is also leading the team in receptions showing Kirk Cousins who is not moving great will dump it to him to avoid hits. The Sportsline model makes the number 122, including 35 receiving yards.

Mahomes median is above this number and he has yet to give us a kneel down. Given the fact that Pacheco is sidelined, I expect Mahomes to drop back 5 more times… The Atlanta Pass rush, can get there, allowing Mahomes to takeoff

I like under 23.5. It essentially becomes a bet on whether there will be 3 first half touchdowns. Given the fact that Kansas City is largely a defensive team, I will play the under

Atlanta's elite safety duo of Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates should limit the explosive plays this stout Falcons defense gives up all season long. Patrick Mahomes curiously has the 2nd lowest aDOT (average depth of target) out of all qualifying QBs. Although Andy Reid and the Chiefs seem to find success with whatever tools they have, I think Atlanta's secondary with the aforementioned safeties, and top-tier CB A.J Terell could make things difficult on Mahomes. Just because Isiah Pacheco is out, it does not mean that the Chiefs will abandon the run game. This number is too high.

While the Chiefs have put some points on the board, the offense has again failed to show those explosive qualities we expect. Kansas City should still put up enough points (even with Isiah Pacheco out), so this is more about the defense under Steve Spagnuolo, which should be blitzing the horizontally limited Kirk Cousins plenty this week after Vic Fangio, for whatever reason, chose not to last week. The Falcons impressed coming back to beat the Eagles, but that was more about Philadelphia’s coaching and horrendous defense. Atlanta is clearly improved, but this is a tough spot. It’s possible the hook gets added before kickoff, so don’t wait. For all of KC's cover issues, Patrick Mahomes is 24-8-1 ATS at this number or better.

Drake London has been working the short area through two weeks. I think that could change eventually, but the Falcons seem to trust other targets downfield such as Darnell Mooney. I think London is good for 5 receptions against the Chiefs, but I don't think his targets are too far downfield against a solid Chiefs pass defense.

This is getting nuts. At 2.5 I was intrigued but at 3.5? Sure I’ll pay the juice and play him under

Fantasy football managers everywhere jockeyed to add the undrafted RB to their rosters following the injury to starter Isiah Pacheco. However, it's hard to envision coach Andy Reid handing the RB1 role to the rookie, and I anticipate veteran dual-threat RB Samaje Perine taking enough of the snaps, aided by a pass-heavy game script, to prevent Steele from clipping this number.

Back to the well we go! Primetime Unders continue to trend up, and this matchup could create another low scoring affair. The Chiefs will now be without lead RB Isiah Pacheco for 6-8 weeks, which is a significant loss. Interestingly enough, Patrick Mahomes has the 2nd lowest aDOT in the league, throwing downfield at one of the lowest clips of any QB (only Commanders QB Jayden Daniels has a shorter aDOT). This Falcons secondary is legit, behind perhaps the best safety duo in the league of Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons offense couldn't get started for the first 40 minutes against Philadelphia, and continues to work out the kinks. Take the Under.

I bet on Kaden Elliss last week and while he came through against the Eagles with 11 combined tackles, it was Troy Anderson who jumped off the screen. The 2022 2nd-round pick was all over the field and finished with nine combined tackles while playing 94 percent of the snaps. He played just 44 percent of the snaps in Week 1, but Nate Landman's injury has made Andersen virtually a full-time player. This is a plus-matchup against a Chiefs' attack that maintains possession, runs the ball at an above-average rate and throws a ton of short passes. Look for Andersen to make at least eight combined stops.

This line has crept down with the Falcons pulling off the upset in Philly on Monday, but I don't know how impressive it was. If Saquon Barkley makes an easy catch, the Falcons don't cover and Kirk Cousins' numbers look pretty pedestrian. Adjusting Atlanta a full point off the lookahead seems aggressive for that result. Yes, the Chiefs lost a good player in Isiah Pacheco to injury, but Carson Steele should have success up the middle behind an elite interior OL, and if Patrick Mahomes has to throw more, isn't that a good thing? Love the value here now that it's down to the key number of 3.

The Chiefs could very well be 0-2. They’re down Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown, and Travis Kelce is finally showing his age. Atlanta discovered its identify in Philly on Monday night, relying on Bijan Robinson and a more spry Kirk Cousins. Wish I had jumped on this at 3.5 in a game that should come down to the wire, but I’ll still take a field goal with the rejuvenated Falcons.

I don't see Raheem Morris getting too cute here vs a great D and great D coordinator and with Kirk Cousins still nursing that Achilles and on a short week. Bijan nearly got this Week 1 vs a strong run D and Chiefs are struggling vs run (32nd in success rate). Lamar Jackson carved them on pistol runs.

Going right back to the proverbial well and fading McCloud, this time we're getting an even better number at 3.5 receptions. McCloud inexplicably leads all Falcons pass catchers in targets through two weeks which is not sustainable. Kirk Cousins has to do a better job of funneling targets to Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Bijan, and Darnell Mooney. McCloud hasn't been efficient, and is by far the likeliest candidate to see his 23% target share shrink.

Rashee Rice has looked excellent through the first two weeks of the season functioning as the Chiefs WR1 on his way to corralling 12/15 targets for 178 yards and 1 TD. Rice is going to shoulder even more of the offensive load now that Isaiah Pacheco has landed on IR, along with Hollywood Brown. Travis Kelce has been a complete non factor, despite elite route participation and it's fair to wonder if the soon to be 35 year old future HOFer is on his proverbial last legs. I also view this as a plus matchup against a Falcons defense that is 20th in EPA allowed per dropback through two weeks.

Strong trends to the under and this already dropped a point. KC continues to struggle in the RZ and the defense leads them. Chiefs D remains vulnerable to the run (dead last in success rate) and expect a conservative, keep-away approach from Raheem Morris. KC road games average 39 PPG in '23, 6th lowest. Falcons 6-3 to under at home since '23, averaging 42 points. Patrick Mahomes is 5-2 to the under in last 7 vs NFC; 2 games over 46 (one was 47). Falcons secondary looks legit. Kirk Cousins has faced Steve Spagnuolo 6 times; 4 of those games went under. Cousins AY/A in last 3: 7.6, 6.8, 6.4. Cousins/Mahomes played 20-27 game in 23. Cousins still not looking 100% from Achilles.