Did not initially plan to play this game, but with the spread falling under the key number, there is value on the Steelers. Defense travels, and even with Pittsburgh playing consecutive road games, Mike Tomlin has been tremendous against rookie quarterbacks. Bo Nix showed poise against Seattle last week but left a lot on the field. Don’t see him getting many more opportunities against the Steelers. Between Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren and Justin Fields, Pittsburgh will look to run and run and run while controlling the clock and limiting possessions.

Pittsburgh showed their defensive might in week one on the road against Atlanta. The offense did not have to show much, and now will have to go on the road for a second consecutive week. Denver’s rookie quarterback Bo Nix did not have a good first game, but stuck with it and got the Broncos into the end zone on their final drive. Take Denver at home to clean up the offense and battle defensively against the Steelers.

Nix rushed 5 times for 35 yards in Week 1. I expect him to take off even more Sunday vs. an aggressive Steelers defense. Think the market is still a little low on Nix's rushing totals early in the season.

Some historical trends should not be ignored, such as this one: Rookie QBs are 6-24 straight-up against Steelers teams coached by Mike Tomlin. Denver's Bo Nix received a rough welcome to the league last week. Half of his completions went for a maximum of four yards. Count on Pittsburgh pass-rusher T.J. Watt to spending all day in the backfield. Steelers QB Justin Fields was not much better, also throwing excessively short, but was acclimating to a new team. He stands to improve more than Nix in Week Two.

To nobody's surprise, the Steelers ran a lot last week. Najee Harris led the way with 20 carries in a convincing win between two low-scoring offenses. Wash, rinse and repeat for Week 2 -- the Broncos offense has major issues and the Steelers defense played marvelously in Week 1. I doubt the Broncos will have answers for the Steelers defense, making for a favorable game script for Harris to get at least 15 carries. And by the way, it's a good matchup for Harris since the Broncos ranked in the bottom-5 in explosive rushes allowed last week with 10.7%, and second-worst in missed tackles with eight. Let's thank Arthur Smith for his run-centric style and win with Harris.

This rookie QB is pretty overwhelmed and the hype about him got way out of hand this summer. Yeah, he is at home this time and not fighting the Seattle crowd, and Sean Payton won't want him throwing the ball a ton ... But Mike Tomlin wipes out kid QBS and the zone blitzes and coverage drops will be a problem. Nix will make questionable decisions with the football. We jumped it at -118 last week and figure the value won't be here for long moving forward.

In beating Atlanta, the Steelers were plus-3 in turnover margin. Their offense averaged a measly 4.1 yards per play. Now they have to play a second straight road game against a Denver team playing its home opener. Bo Nix showed promise at Seattle, especially as a runner, and I trust Sean Payton to help the rookie make adjustments entering this matchup. More designed runs will be called. In what surely will be a low-scoring grinder, I like getting a full field goal with the home team.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will be playing their second consecutive road game, which will be at high altitude. The Broncos lost their first two home games last season, so they will be focused on getting a win. It's worth noting that Mike Tomlin has been great as a road underdog but not so much as a road favorite. Justin Fields has one of the lowest winning percentages against the spread among NFL quarterbacks, with more than 20 starts. His overall ATS record is 13-18-1, which equates to a 40% cover rate. The Steelers have cluster injuries on their offensive line. I like the home dog!

Week 2 is typically Overreaction Week in the NFL, but this is the same number we saw on the lookahead. That's despite the Steelers upsetting the Falcons and the Broncos offense looking horrendous against the Seahawks. While to some that means hop on the Steelers ASAP, I see a market that has identified the Steelers offense as pretty terrible as well after managing just 4.1 yards per play and scoring no TDs in the win. The Broncos defense played better than anticipated in their game, and they can keep this to a low-scoring game. Being at home and catching the full field goal in that type of game screams value.

Bo Nix didn't play his best against a very aggressive Seahawks defense. Well, it doesn't get any easier for him this week against a Steelers defense that brings pressure nonstop throughout the game. Again, whether it's Justin Fields or Russell Wilson at QB, Pittsburgh will be able to manage the game enough to cover the spread.

The Steelers defense and run game can travel. Denver got worn out on the ground by Seattle and Steelers will do same thing here. Bo Nix ain't ready for this, and Steelers can cover running the ball 40 times like last week (no one has run the ball more since middle of last season). Mike Tomlin is 24-6 vs rookie QBs, allowing 275 yards/G (2nd best since 2007), with a 10% sack rate and giving up 15.3 PPG in the process. PIT is 12-6 ATS on road since start of '22; DEN 7-10 ATS at home in that span.