Pollard is a consistent median of 16 carries. This should be a sweat but we should hit the16 carries we need.

Pollard medians about 3.7 YPC and even if he goes over his carries he should still fail to hit this total.

Jordan Love has played some impressive football lately – especially without Christian Watson, who will be back this week – but let’s not overlook the teams he beat. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have gotten back to basics after a tough three-game stretch, and now they return home where they have been dominant this season. Dallas should be able to pressure Green Bay early and often, especially if the Cowboys get ahead, and Mike McCarthy is well aware that his team needs to take advantage of a young secondary on the other side. It makes sense why the Packers are getting love, but this is Cowboys-or-nothing for me, especially given their level of play in Dallas has been one of the best in the last couple decades.

Aaron Jones killed fantasy players this season because he couldn't stay healthy and managed all of two TDs. He's really overdue one with AJ Dillon still out and the vast bulk of the backfield touches all belonging to Jones. The Cowboys allowed 14 rushing TDs during the season and Jones did score against them in 2022 -- he always could score via reception as well.

Dallas is the better team and they are dominant at home. Green Bay is still a bit banged up and susceptible to a passing team with multiple weapons. Take Dallas

The last 6 weeks JF has averaged over 7 targets a game with a minimum of 6 each week. I project 7-8 targets which leads me to believe we should be at 4,5 or 6 catches. The odds in our favor to go over.

This 7-point spread implies the Cowboys win in fairly dominant fashion, and I'm just not seeing that happen here. The Cowboys have been terrific at home, going 8-0 averaging over 37 points per game. However, those eight home games were against the Patriots, Jets, Rams, Giants, Commanders, Seahawks, Eagles & Lions this year. Fairly weak. They nearly lost to the Seahawks on primetime, and the refs bailed them out in controversial fashion against the Lions. This "vaunted" defense was actually only 16th in pressure rate this season. Jordan Love has been extremely accurate and efficient to close the year, with an 18-1 TD/INT ratio since Week 11. I think he plays well today and keeps the Packers within a possession.

Please shop around and try to find better juice, but this completions prop is something that Jordan Love has hit in 5 of his last 6 games. More importantly, he's been able to hit it in neutral as well as trailing game scripts. We're likely to see a trailing game script from the Packers here and Jordan Love should have his full compliment of receivers who he loves to pepper in the short area. It's these short area, more reliable throws, that have me on the completions prop as opposed to the attempts prop although both could certainly hit (looking for efficiency as opposed to volume when targeting completions props).

Playing with house money, the Packers have arrived in the playoffs a bit sooner than most expected. A young roster with a first-time starting QB in Jordan Love, Green Bay surged down the stretch as Love in particular began to post impressive numbers (32 TDP across the season; 9 TDP/0 int ratio the last four games), and developing special rapport with many of his wideouts, including big-play Jayden Reed. The pressure is on Dallas, as Mike McCarthy faces his former team knowing a quick one-and-done puts his job in jeopardy. Dallas has also been a playoff underachiever, just 1-5 vs. the line in postseason with Dak Prescott, and the home record this season was greatly enhanced by favorable matchups. Play Packers

Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs have a chance to play Sunday, but even if they do I like rookie Jayden Reed to continue his late-season surge. Reed has been targeted 30 times the past four games while racking up 280 receiving yards. With the Packers potentially trailing and needing to throw, Jordan Love will be looking often for Reed.

The Packers won three straight to make the playoffs, and Jordan Love has been outstanding in the back half of the season while largely limited by injuries to the skill-position players around him. But I can't shake that this is a different ball game against a Cowboys defense that can generate pressure with its front four and create takeaways, particularly at home. The Packers defense has faced just one team since Week 4 that ranks higher than 15th in scoring and had its starting QB, and the Cowboys are the top scoring team in the league. We saw what Bryce Young did to this defense a few weeks ago, and I believe Dak Prescott can lead this team to 40 points and cover.

The deeper I dig the more I like the Packers chances. If they can weather the first half, I believe they will be better prepared and equipped to win a close game late, even on the road. They are more balanced offensively, they will be the looser team and the QB is playing special ball. In their 7 games vs playoff teams, Cowboys allowed a 99.0 QB rating, and 8.1 yards/att, with just 10 total sacks in those games. GB OL will battle. GB has the superior head coach. GB put up over 25 PPG on the road. Cowboys have no rest advantage. Dallas isn't used to playing close games, and especially not winning them against playoff-caliber opponents. Live bet GB at half if close

This is how the Packers score. They had no dependable run game or back for most of the season and the QB closes drives with his arm. He's been a top 3 QB in the second half of the season and he's throwing 35 times a game and he's slinging in the RZ. This has hit 4 straight games and 8 of 9. Cowboys D is wilting late. Packers staff playing with house money with Love's development, They aren't going to scale anything back now. This is no-lose for them. Let it all hang out. He has 18 TDs to 1 INT since Week 11.

Dallas can't run the ball, and the screen game isn't the best in the world but they can feed this big target to keep the chains moving. Ferguson has earned his QB's trust, he has 4+ catches in six straight games and is a go-to guy on third down and in the redzone. And the Packers have TE issues. They allowed a 105.8 rating throwing to TEs (23rd), for 8.1/attempt (30th) with 7 TDs (25th). Ferguson caught 72% of his targets at home this season and I see a heavy load in the passing game in a high-scoring game.

The Cowboys can't run the ball and won't have a lot of patience for a middling ground game here. They need to grab an early lead at home and let their defense, which cant stop the run, feast. Prescott averages 309/G at home, he has thrown for 271+ in six straight games at home and I am playing him in alt markets at 300+ here. Averages a robust 8.6/attempt at home; Packers 20th in yards/attempt allowed.

Jordan Love was a top 5 QB since Week 11, and he isn't a rookie and this shouldn't be too big for him. The Cowboys need to play with a big lead, that's their script and they will try to make this game played in the 30s if they can. Love will have to follow. Neither of these Ds are great. Love averaged 269/G since Week 11, and 264/G in six games against playoff teams. He's mastering high-percentage passing with an improving OL huge against this pass rush. He's at 250+ in 9 of the last 9 games. I think this is 275+ in a shootout.

Jake Ferguson has enjoyed a breakout year as a first year starter in Dallas offense and has really come on strong as the season has progressed. In addition to Ferguson's production increasing, his playing time has as well, resulting in the second year vet becoming a full time player in Dallas offense over the second half of the season. Ferguson played his best football down the stretch and averaged 5.1 receptions, 57 rec yards, on 7.3 targets per game over the Cowboys final six games, while eclipsing this line in five of those appearances. Look for Ferguson to continue to serve as Dak Prescott's safety blanket in what looks like a potential shootout in Dallas.

These teams are evenly matched. Both are bottom 6 teams in key defensive metrics the final third of the season and both top 3 in points/drive in that span. GB has the head coaching advantage and it's Jordan Love's 1st playoff game but he's no rookie. All the pressure on a Dallas team that comes up small. Should have lost at home to DET and barely survived SEA. Their home field over-valued here. GB defense has curbed it run woes and Dallas can't pound the ball, anyway. Packers are very balanced on offense and can run with the Cowboys here. I will sprinkle on the ML as well. Longer this stays tight the more it spells doom for Cowboys. Dak is 1-5 ATS in playoffs.

The Cowboys won all eight of their home games going 6-2 ATS and they’ve gotten Over 8-8-1 on the season despite averaging a home score of 37-15. They didn’t get Over in their last five games overall which included home Unders to the Lions and the Eagles. The Cowboys will score at home, but I need the Packers to help with the high number. The Packers come in on a three-game win streak and have been aided by QB Jordan Love throwing 18 TD passes to 1 interception between his last eight starts winning six of them. The Packers went 10-7 to the Over this season, including six of their last seven getting Over. Over might be the best bet of this playoff round.

Since returning in Week 15, Aaron Jones leads the NFL with 411 rushing yards. He's healthy and explosive and will ease the pressure on Jordan Love, who's making his first playoff start. Love's mobility will help versus a fierce Dallas pass rush, but so will the Packers' strong offensive line. Green Bay has given up the third-fewest sacks (30). Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy tends to tighten up and get conservative in big spots. That will make it hard to cover a big number. I also like the way the Packers' defense is coming on, holding Justin Fields to 144 total yards with eight different players registering a tackle for loss Sunday.

Cowboys defense is overrated and Packers average 25.3 PPG on road, third best. Pack's been playing defacto playoff games for 6 weeks and Cowboys are good at home but not intimidating. Packers overs 7-2 on road, with games averaging 4.8 more scoring than the closing line (4th most on road). Dallas home games averaged 53.25 points and with a 7.5 point margin over the closing total (3rd highest at home). Jordan Love playing like top 5 QB since midseason and Dak is all-world at home. Cowboys will attack downfield early to try to mitigate Green Bay running on its soft defense. I expect a frenetic pace. Since Week 13 DAL is 25th in yard/play allowed (5.7) and GB is 26th. Both offenses will cook.