Bills slot corner Taron Johnson has cleared this prop total in three straight and six of seven. He's facing a Chargers' offense that allows 15 tackles per game to the cornerback position. Johnson has a 14 percent tackle rate since Buffalo's bye. Look for him to register at least five combined tackles Saturday night.

The Chargers rank 29th in target share to opposing running backs, which sets up well for James Cook. He's an excellent receiver and has cleared this prop total in four straight -- all of which came under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Look for Cook to expose LA's linebackers and go Over again.

Lost amid the Monday night catastrophe that saw former coach Brandon Staley lose his job was a second-half performance by Stick, against most of the Raiders first-team defense, that showed he could be a serviceable backup. He threw for 257 yards and three touchdowns and appeared to find some rhythm with a depleted WR group. In what should be a trialing game script, this feels like a meager milestone for him to clear.

The Bills are likely overvalued by a couple points, and it’s rarely smart to trust Josh Allen with a large spread. Plus, the Chargers should bounce back to a degree from last week’s embarrassment at the Raiders. Still, there’s value in Buffalo, one of the four hottest teams in the league and one that may need to win out to make the playoffs. The Bills have upped their game, and the defense is a big reason why. For any flaws, Allen is still a head-and-shoulders better than Easton Stick. Buffalo should rely on James Cook to take pressure off Allen, and Los Angeles is on a 1-5 ATS streak (Justin Herbert starting most of those games). The Bills get out of L.A. by two TDs.

The Chargers present a unique target this week. Brandon Staley and GM Tom Telesco were both run out of town after the 63-21 loss to the Raiders last Thursday, which might be just the beginning of a thorough housecleaning. With Easton Stick at QB, hardly expect the Bolts to outscore the confidence-flowing Bills, who just pounded Dallas in their best effort of the season and beat the Chiefs the week prior. Getting in gear for a playoff run, don't expect the Bills and the majority of fans at So Fi to take the night off on Saturday, and remember Buffalo beat the Rams 31-10 in the Thursday night opener on this field last year. Play Bills

Call them the "Under-Bills." That's been Buffalo's pattern since midseason, "unders" 6-1 across the last seven, and 7-2 across the last nine games. The new-found ground emphasis featuring James Cook that destroyed Dallas last week will undoubtedly be deployed again at So Fi as the Bills don't figure to need much to outscore the Bolts minus Justin Herbert. The Chargers defense had not fared badly this season until the Las Vegas debacle last Thursday, and expect some pride to be shown in the first game following Brandon Staley's dismissal. The Easton Stick-led offense cannot be expected to do much damage, and the Bolts were "under" 9-1-1 prior tot he Raiders last week. Play Bills-Chargers "Under"

This is a big number, but we've got a Bills team that needs to keep their foot on the pedal and a Chargers team that is in disarray. I expect the Chargers defense to get gashed by the run and pass and I don't think a Keenan Allen-less Chargers team led by Easton Stick can keep the pace.

Match-ups matter and this is a very different one for the Bills than last week. Diggs can do much more than run block Sat night and this will be another 11+ target game for him. as I don't think the Bills will run 53% of the time against this terrible secondary. Chargers are 27th in yards/pass to WRs and this is big bounce-back spot for Diggs ahead of the playoffs. His catch% has been off lately but he and Allen can refine that here against these corners. They'll take some deep shots, too.

The Chargers are the perfect team to face when a top WR might need to get his groove back. It's time to let their perhaps-occasionally-disgruntled top pass catcher feast tonight in a wonderful match-up. Don't have to give it all to James Cook. Chargers are 27th vs the pass allowing 3rd most TDs to WR in NFL. They want Diggs feeling part of playoff mix. The main WR tends to score vs this D recently: Adams, Sutton, Watson, Flowers, St. Brown, Rice. Lamb didn't but still had big day.

The market expects this to be a Bills blowout, and that means the Chargers should again be playing from behind for much of the game. That should mean a good bit of volume for Josh Palmer, who saw only four targets in his return from IR last week while not getting a full complement of snaps. The only game he's played in and not gotten at least 60 receiving yards since Week 2 was the one where he played through a first-quarter knee injury that wound up sidelining him for the following six weeks. I'm surprised this prop isn't at least 10 yards higher.

Being a "runner" in college doesn't always translate to the big leagues. For what it's worth, Andy Dalton was a good runner too in college. It's hard to believe that Easton Stick will be running this weekend if he wasn't even running last week with Maxx Crosby chasing him. He's had 58 pass attempts the past two games and just 2 rushes for 11 yards. Who knows if he'll even play the whole game with the new coach and Will Grier. Our model projects him for 10 yards.

The Chargers receiver had 34 yards last week -- after catching a 79-yard touchdown in their blowout loss against the Raiders. He's had at least three receptions in each of his past seven games, and he's averaged at least 15 yards per catch in all but two of those past seven games. Do the math and you can see that he has a shot to easily blow past this total without getting a lot of volume. Fortunately for us, he should see some good volume as the Bills are very likely to put the Chargers into a pass-heavy game script. The Chargers already throw the ball a ton as it is -- they threw at a 69.2% clip in the first quarter last week!

The Chargers named Giff Smith as their interim head coach, who many of the Chargers veteran players have spoken highly of. They quit on Brandon Staley, and I expect them to play motivated after being embarrassed by the Raiders in primetime. Since 2003, teams have gone 21-16 ATS the week after firing their head coach. In the past two seasons, teams to allow 40+ points in their previous game are 22-13-2 ATS the following week. The Bills are hot, and the entire public betting market will be betting on Buffalo. Give me the Chargers defense to play motivated, and help L.A stick around to cover this wide spread.

Gabe Davis is an extremely boom or bust option which comes with the territory of being used almost exclusively as a deep threat. It has been a lot more bust than boom lately as the Bill have opted to go conservative and rely heavily on James Cook and their rushing attack. As a result we're getting a very low number on Davis who is capable of clearing this prop on a single catch in what is a tremendous matchup. The Chargers have been absolutely torched down the field and Davis looks like a strong bet to get behind them.

Fresh off of allowing Aiden O'Connell and the Raiders to drop 63 points on them, the Chargers will now have to deal with a red hot Bills team. LA's pass defense has been dreadful and are currently ranked 26 in EPA allowed per dropback and 21 in PFF's coverage grade. The Chargers also surrender more explosive downfield passing (check out my other prop in this game..) than any team in the league. The Bills may not need to pass a ton, but they should have zero trouble moving the ball through the air against a defense that looks like they've quit.

The Chargers have had disastrous results, but they're not a disastrous team. This talented but underachieving team has seen five of its nine losses come by 3 or fewer points. Their embarrassing blowout loss to Las Vegas sent Brandon Staley into the unemployment line. Not only do teams tend to have at least a brief performance uptick amid such circumstances (the Raiders won two games after Antonio Pierce took over for Josh McDaniels), Los Angeles is catching Buffalo in a potential flat spot following three consecutive huge matchups for the Bills against the Eagles, Chiefs and Cowboys.

Might only take about a dozen carries to get here, but I have a hard time thinking he doesn't get there. Perhaps this is an epic blowout and Latavious Murray ends up getting a bunch of the ball in the second half, but Cook has too much burst and wiggle for this Chargers group up front and the Bills OL will be too powerful for a fading Chargers defense. Cook is averaging over 5/carry for the season and 5.5/carry since the offensive coordinator change. Bills leaning into more run from under center, which will be an issue for this defense, especially when Cook has the ball.

Let's not get carried away with the Bills approach last week. That was against a very different D in a different climate in a different sort of game. This ain't the Cowboys -it's the Chargers who stink against the run and have allowed 24 passing TDs and over 261 yards/G. You don't want Diggs run blocking all the time. Bills can throw the ball freely and at will in a perfect environment to pass against a hapless defense. No big thing for Josh Allen to fling it around for 250+ and the Bills to still be able to flex their muscles on the ground. Chargers have allowed 2nd most passes of 25+ in the NFL. Plenty of chunk yards to get us over this.

The Bills offense runs through Cook now. In the last four weeks he averages 136.8 scrimmage yards/game; only CMC and Kyren WIlliams have more. Bills are running the ball 51% if the time since making their coordinator change - most in the NFL - and Cook gets the lions share. He is also being fed in the screen game. He's over 100 scrimmage yards in 5 straight while facing many defenses better than this broken unit. Could go for 70-80 in the passing game, too, if Chargers sell out to stop the run.

Of course we are still riding this. It's like Jalen Hurts ATDs, but for more a better return and without the Tush Push. He's up to 11 rushing TDs now, and it's not like it takes a QB sneak situation for him to hit paydirt. It's hit in 8 of the last 9 games. He's facing a pretty pathetic defense all around and one that has been out-physical-ed plenty this season. And the Bills are running the ball more than any NFL team the last 4 weeks. He will continue to be a RZ rushing force.

Joey Bosa remains out, so stopping Khalil Mack will be Buffalo's focus. The Bills' offensive line just held Micah Parsons without a sack or QB hit. Josh Allen should have a clean pocket, in perfect weather conditions, to pick apart this beleaguered Chargers defense. Led by James Cook's emergence, the Bills have scored 31-plus in three of their last four games. The exception came Week 14 at Kansas City, when Buffalo controlled the ball for 35:21 in a 20-17 win against an elite defense. Look for the Bills, who still have a shot at the AFC East title, to score at least 27.

I don't think this Chargers defense will make any considerable gains just from firing Brandon Staley, and they lack the muscle up front to compete with this Bills attack, especially with the renewed emphasis on the run game since firing OC Ken Dorsey. Bills scored 31+ in 3 of 4 since that move, the Chargers have given up 24 passing TDs (27th) and they allow 25 PPG, and Buffalo is just too efficient these days finishing drives (3rd-best RZ offense) to not approach 30 points again. Would not be surprised if Bills keep coming out hot and are right around this number by halftime. Chargers will turn the ball over and give them quick-score opportunities. I want this under 27, obviously.