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With the Eagles QB still battling an illness, it stands to reason that making himself vulnerable to additional contact in the run game will be low on his priority list. Look for fewer designed runs and maybe even for Hurts to throw the ball away as opposed to taking off when a play breaks down.
We could see a lot on the ground tonight. And while I think Swift could have success with a bounce back week, I still think there's room for Gainwell to hit 14 yards. The Seahawks rush defense is far from impressive as they are bottom 10 in both total yards allowed on the ground and yards per carry. With Hurts likely not moving well due to illness, that should give Gainwell a few more reps. Our model projects the RB2 for 21 yards.
There’s going to be rain falling all game, or at least an 80% chance, but the key variables for me are the defensive issues both the Eagles and Seahawks have right now while also focusing on the wind. It’s likely to be only 3 mph which means both teams can throw. I think both passing games will be fine here. Lots of desperation from the Seahawks on a four-game losing streak, they have to be aggressive. No Darius Slay to an already beat-up Eagles defense that has allowed 33-points or more in their last three games. Over is the play.
AJ Brown has had a stellar season and is on pace to have career best stats in every receiving category. Brown leads the NFL in both target share (32%) and first read target rate. Brown and the Eagles will face a vulnerable Seattle pass defense that is 25th in defensive success rate and 21st in EPA allowed per dropback. Look for Jalen Hurts and the Ealges to try and take advance of Seattles pass defense by targetting Brown down the field.
I expect the Ealges to be in a neutral or positive game script for a majority of this game and I expect Jalen Hurts to play at less than 100%. That is a great recipe for any starting running back, including D'Andre Swift, who gets a great matchup against a porous Seahawk rush defense. Swift hasn't been effiicent as of late, but the last two games were against much better rush defenses than he will see on MNF. Look for the Eagles to lean on their running back and likely get out of Seattle with a win.
Whether it's Geno Smith or Drew Lock at QB, the Seahawks are able to move the ball. A tough schedule stretch the past month has put Seattle in a tough spot to make the playoffs, but all it takes is one win in the NFC and postseason prospects can change. The bottom line is that even though it's been the Niners and Cowboys beating the Eagles the past two weeks, those were comprehensive beatings, and there are still some glaring fundamental issues such as a downgraded infantry (4.6 ypc a year ago; barely 4 ypc now), to lack of push from the DL, to ongoing leaks in the secondary. Now word Jalen Hurts is ill, possibly jeopardizing his availability. Play Seahawks
Seahawks TE Noah Fant has cleared this current total of 21.5 receiving yards in 8 of 13 games this season. The Eagles secondary has been awful year long, and now will be without CB Darius Slay. Last week with Drew Lock at the helm, Fant had 2 receptions for 35 yards on 4 targets. If Lock starts in place of Geno Smith again, I like this prop even more. Fant also has big play potential, logging a 25+ yard grab in 6 of 13 games this year. Fant should only need one or two catches to cash this
D.K. Metcalf is a big play waiting to happen. In seven of his last eight games, Metcalf has made a reception of 27-plus yards. Now Metcalf faces an exploitable Eagles defense that ranks 29th against the pass and will be missing top corner Darius Slay. Geno Smith is trending toward playing, which only helps Metcalf.
The Eagles have endured a ridiculously challenging schedule stretch and now travel cross-country to confront an underachieving foe that is forever testy at home. Seattle is 4-2 outright this season in the friendly confines. Culpability for the Seahawks' recent slump falls mainly on the defense, but it might avoid facing QB Jalen Hurts, who is ill and did not travel with the team. The Philly secondary has been hit-and-miss, and its top performer, CB Darius Slay (knee), is absent.
Goedert made an immediate impression in his return last week, catching all four targets for 30 yards. He's got his legs under him more now and Hurts will be looking for him against this defense. Seattle allows 8.1 yards/attempt to TEs, 28th in the NFL. Guys like Kittle (3-79), Ferguson (6-77), Andrews (9-80) and Njoku (4-77) have sailed over this and Logan Thomas came close (5-40).
Eagles are under a microscope right now, but they still have plenty of weapons and are facing a broken defense here that is allowing 30+ points per game since the start of November, Seattle's RZ defense is broken (26th) and the Eagles convert with the Tush Push and are a top10 RZ team. They average 26 a game while Seattle's D is 30th on third down and 24th vs the rush and 21st vs the pass. Seattle has allowed 26+ points in 5 of the last 6 games and have allowed 23 offensive TDs since Week 8, most in the NFL. Even with the travel I like a bounce-back spot here.
Meant to play this early in the week when it first populated around -114. I'll still take it here and use it as a parlay leg. Hurts didn't score last week but hasn't gone two games all season without a rushing TD. He's scored in four of the last five games (6 total in that span), and it's not like some other rushing TD vulture emerged in that offense with him failing to score. All the fumbles around the redzone kept this from cashing last week but that won't happen again here. Team Tush Push For Life.
The Eagles are sputtering on offense and leaning back into some of what got them to the top in the first place. We saw them come out running with Hurts last week and leaning more into the option stuff and I have every reason to anticipate more of it here as they try to hold on to a division lead and stay in the hunt for a bye. I also see plenty of kneel-down potential against the fading Seahawks. They fell badly behind in the last two games which curbed this, but he has 10 carries or more in three in a row prior to that. This will be a more competitive game and they need to get their run game kick started again
This line is down two full points from the lookahead. Consecutive blowout losses to the 49ers and Cowboys – compounded by consecutive covers for the Seahawks despite Seattle being depleted offensively – has created a scenario in which the Eagles hold value in this road spot. The last two losses have been terrible, but Philadelphia has been through a gauntlet the last month, a stretch during which it was a few plays from going 1-4 instead of 3-2. Seattle, meanwhile, is 5-2 ATS at home and 7-0 against Philly under Pete Carroll, though it only has two straight up wins against teams over .500 this season. Are the Eagles really going to lose three straight and not take this opportunity to reverse course?