Johnson showed he's a capable NFL running back when he saw extensive playing time in Cleveland and he has started to take on an increased workload in Jacksonville of late. He has clipped this number in three consecutive games and could even more action Monday as starter Travis Etienne plays through a rib injury.

The elusive RB is playing through the rib injury that threatened to sideline him but his production could be limited Monday. If the game is in hand, the Jags will likely give their star some rest, they might limit his touches to limit his risk and there's a chance the ailment could flare up and cause him to be unable to continue. Look for Etienne, who played just 47 of 76 snaps last week, to post modest numbers Monday.

Just a wild hunch here. But this has already been a week with plenty of guys hitting paydirt twice. Bengals are bad vs TEs. And Engram has been trying to score all year ... I could see him catching one early and building off of that. Bengals safety play is suffering this year and Jags personnel will leverage this secondary with speed and twitch on the outside. Can't cover them all. Things happen in bunches. I'm making a small play and including in some parlays.

It's weird that a guy who was a big part of the Jags offense during their playoff run last year and is on a much higher target rate that in his first season with the Jags still doesn't have a TD catch. Like really weird. Engram has 64 catches - almost 6 a game - without a TD reception. If we know it, they know it. Their facing a really bad pass defense and one that struggles vs TEs. It's a rare Jags prime time home game and Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence probably want this quirky slump over before the playoffs and all three of his RZ targets have come over the last four games. He can also score on the deep ball.

Quietly, Johnson has become an interesting cog in a Jacksonville offense that's still a work in progress. If this is the blowout the line suggests, Johnson should get a nice run in the second half while Etienne rests. If you think the Jags might run more in their first game without LT Cam Robinson, that means for Johnson, also in the screen game. Has a reception of 15 yards or more in three straight, and is over this total in receiving yards alone in each of the last two games. Nevermind the fact that he also has seven carries in each of those two games. I see opportunity for 10-12 touches here against a bad defense Scrimmage yards last 3 games: 40, 54, 61.

Look for Travis Etienne to handle lead back duties tonight in what is a fantastic matchup against a Bengals defense that is 27th in EPA allowed per rush, defensive run grade, and 26th in Run Stop Win Rate. I don't think Etienne would be suiting up tonight if the injury was serious and he also had an extra day to get healthy. I think he has a big game on the ground.

The Jaguars find themselves in a spot where if they win tonight not only do they solidify themselves atop the AFC South but actually the AFC as a whole as they would grab (for this week at least) the No. 1 spot in the playoff picture. Should Jacksonville do that, Travis Etienne is the man for the job. Yes there are some rib issues with his health but if it were terrible he wouldn't be going. Let the stallion run tonight.

Outside of two potential interceptions that turned into long gainers for Ja'Marr Chase, Jake Browning was unable to get the offense going at Pittsburgh. This is an even bigger challenge against a Jags team that allows RBs to gain 3.6 yards per carry and ranks eighth in pass efficiency defense. The atmosphere will be electric, as it's the Jags' first scheduled primetime game since 2011. The Bengals' defense ranks dead last in yards per play allowed (6.2) and should be in for a long night against this balanced Jacksonville attack.

You can shop around and find 55.5 here. Our model projects Ja'Marr Chase to have 72 yards for a few reasons. For one, the return of Tee Higgins adds another element for this slightly banged up Jaguars secondary to worry about. The Jags defense ranks 24th in YPA allowed. And assuming this Bengals team will be playing from behind in the second half, there could be a lot of opportunity for Browning to get his reps in with his receivers.

A game with such large playoff implications is enough to make a quarterback run. And to help the cause, the Bengals have not been intimidating against mobile quarterbacks. The 27.8 yards on the ground they allow to opposing quarterbacks is bottom 3 in the league. With Travis Etienne likely limited, it might open more opportunity for the QB who is averaging 21.8 yards on the ground at home.

The script is right for Evan Engram's first touchdown of the season. Last week we could tell they were looking to get it done, with two plays designed in the end zone for the tight end. But this week, with a potentially healthy lead against one of the weakest tight end defenses in the league, the flexibility should be there. The Bengals secondary will have their hands full with the return of Zay Jones and will leave opportunity for Engram.

Jake Browning was able to put up 10 points against the Steelers last week, now he gets his first road start in the NFL against the Jaguars. He also has the worst rushing attack in the NFL averaging 75 ypg to aide. He also has the worst defense in the NFL allowing 389 ypg. It doesn’t sound like Browning has a lot of support. The Jaguars have won and covered seven of their last eight with the one blemish against the 49ers. I’m on the Jaguars to cover.

Jake Browning completed 19 passes against the Steelers last week and will see another negative game script this week and potentially an easier time moving the ball. One thing we saw from him against the Steelers was very few air yards and a very low aDOT from his receivers. Expect more of the same against a porous Jaguar secondary. I'll note that this line may drop down to 20.5 (with different juice of course) so you can potentially wait until later in the day to get the better number (but it won't be at plus money like this one).

When Trevor Lawrence locks in on Christian Kirk big things tend to happen and I expect to see that tonight. Kirk has been targeted 24 times over Jacksonville's last three games and not only does Christian get the looks, he has big play ability too. Lawrence loves finding Kirk on the skinny post and he knows what to do from there. Volume and distance should both be our friends tonight.

Hard to believe we're already at the end of Week 13 but every bettor knows the NFL season goes quick. As for players and coaches what they know right about now is that the final stretch is quickly approaching and the Jaguars have an incredibly important game tonight to secure a win. Houston keeps winning which is keeping Jacksonville on its toes for the AFC South so expect Trevor Lawrence to use his arm and feet tonight. The big cat won't run much, but enough and we should cash a nice attainable number here.

It might be a mistake to equate the Cincy scoreline last week vs. the all-defense and no-offense Steelers to whatever transpires tonight with the Jags, who if nothing else have a real offense with Trevor Lawrence at the controls. Many AFC North observers, however, still insist that Cincy isn't in the worst of hands at QB with Jake Browning, who has spent considerable time running the first team in the absence of Joe Burrow back to the summer and preseason. And if Zac Taylor wants any shot at staying in the playoff chase, he's going to have to take a chance and open up the playbook for Browning. If that's the case, clearing 40 points looks realistic. Play Bengals-Jags "Over"

In four of Cincinnati's last five games, opposing tight ends have delivered huge performances. The stretch includes George Kittle's 149-yard eruption and Pat Freiermuth's 120-yard outing. The exception came in Week 11 when Ravens tight end Mark Andrews suffered a serious ankle injury. Look for Engram, who's drawn at least seven targets in nine of his last 10 games, to be the latest to take advantage of this tight-end friendly defense.

Jake Browning has played a game and a half and is averaging 11 yards per completion and 7 1/2 yards per attempt. He is projected to have 21 completions on 33 attempts, either number puts him over comfortably. Plus last week Cincinnati ran less than 40 plays (a shockingly low number than cannot be replicated) and Browning still put up 227. Over.

Consistency has been an issue for Ridley this season as he adjusts to the Jaguars, and, well, consistency has been an issue for the entire Jacksonville offense. But things seem to be clicking for their top WR since everything bogged down in a blowout loss to SF. He's facing a broken pass defense coming off his best back-to-back showing as a Jag, with 12 catches for 192 yards and 3 TDs the last two weeks and at least 89 receiving yards in both. Bengals leak yardage in the passing game and this should be a confidence-boosting game at home ahead of the playoff push. He barely saw the ball in their last primetime game - bet Trevor Lawrence feeds him early and often in here

Engram has had a weird season after resurrecting his career in Jacksonville but I sense a breakout game Monday night. They have a rare home appearance in prime time against a team with little hope and can flex some. Engram averages just under six catches a game and his catch % is sound and Bengals allow a 114 passer rating on throws to TEs, and 80% completion rate. Losing both safeties in free agency has really hurt this defense, which is 32nd in yards/catch allowed. The Bengals allowed the second-most receptions in the NFL to TEs in the first 12 weeks of the season.

The Bengals are a take at this key number. Although their season appears lost amid the Joe Burrow injury, they are still mathematically alive for a playoff berth at 5-6 and should put up a fight in this one. Jake Browning should be improved in his second start, and having Tee Higgins available as a short-area target should help. The surging Jags could be in for a flat spot following consecutive big divisional victories.

Without Joe Burrow and the threat of a diverse passing attack, Joe Mixon will be facing a ton of stacked boxes. Last week he gained 16 yards on eight carries vs. Pittsburgh. Now he takes on a Jaguars defense that ranks ninth in yards per carry allowed (4.0). Mixon is averaging 3.9 per carry, and has gone Under this prop total in three of his last four. Look for another inefficient performance from Mixon on MNF.

The low total in this game is terrifying when it comes to laying a ton of points with the Jaguars, but I don't really care. These two teams are going in polar opposite directions: the Jaguars are surging like they did in the second half of the season, except this time around they had a good record to begin with and are in pursuit of the AFC's top seed. The Bengals are starting Jake Browning and coming off a tough home loss to a division rival. They have less than a two-percent chance at making the postseason, according to our SportsLine projection model. The AFC is too crowded and Joe Burrow is done for the season.

The Jaguars may have locked up the division title last week with a win in Houston, but I don't consider this a letdown spot at home in primetime. The defense didn't play great despite holding the Texans to just 21 points, but they should have an easier time here against Jake Browning in his first road start. The pressure will be on him to engineer multiple TD drives to cover, because the Cincy defense looks abysmal, giving up Pittsburgh's first 400-yard game in over three years. Trevor Lawrence has looked dialed in since the Week 10 loss to the 49ers, and this defense shouldn't give him much reason for concern. I see Jacksonville putting up a big number and don't know how Browning keeps up.

The Bengals will put up a fight for a while here, but when your best plays on offense come when the other team drops interceptions that land in Ja’Marr Chase’s hands anyway, that’s a tough way to go. Jacksonville scares me as a favorite some, which is why I lean to the total here. The Bengals are now among the dregs of the NFL in their inability to move the ball and Browning will take sacks. The Jags offense is not high powered, either, and rarely looks sharp for more than half a game at a time. I suspect they settle for a bunch of field goals here and Bengals playing two deep to funnel stuff underneath. I don’t think Bengals score above 10-13.