My read on this game is that Miami will shut down on the edges with their fine corners but struggle in the middle. Wash should be chasing and Samuel should go over.

Miami has great corners. You attack the middle of the field. That means Logan Thomas in a game where Wash should be chasing.

The talented but erratic Dotson seems to save his best work for the highest-caliber opponents. He had a season-high 108 yards at home against the Eagles earlier this year and is coming off a 52-yard performance against the Cowboys. With a projected up-tempo game script that should feature plenty of opportunities for playmakers on both sides, look for Dotson to have a productive effort and clip this number.

Logan Thomas is the closest thing that Sam Howell and the Commanders have to a bona fide number 1 target/receiver. This also looks like a good spot for Thomas in a game where Howell’s projected pass attempts is set at 38.5. The Dolphins are allowing the sixth-most yards to short passes over the middle of the field, which sets up well for Thomas, given his 6.7 ADOT is shallow. In a game that should feature a ton of passing volume and with the Commanders very likely playing from behind and airing the ball out a ton as a result, this looks solid.

A change in defensive coordinators shouldn't make a huge difference for the Commanders but the transition should give a little life to the fast-sinking club that has lost three straight. Miami could be in a tricky flat spot following a blowout win over a divisional opponent.

Commanders linebacker Cody Barton came off IR (ankle) on Thanksgiving and recorded six combined tackles vs. the Cowboys. More important, he wore the green dot and never left the field. The Dolphins got up big in Week 12 at the Jets, and they ended up running the ball 37 times to 30 passes. That helped C.J. Mosley -- who also wears the green dot and plays middle linebacker for New York -- rack up 14 tackles.

This is a high number for most players to hit. However, Tyreek Hill is not most players. He has at least 100 receiving yards in seven of his 11 games this season. He even has five games with at least 140 receiving yards. The Commanders have allowed the most receiving yards to wide receivers in the league. They have given up 9.89 yards per target to the position, which is by far the highest mark in the league. Despite the big number for Hill, I’m still taking the over.

The Commanders have the third-fewest rushing attempts in the league, but the most passing attempts. The result has been Sam Howell attempting at least 39 passes in nine of his 12 games. He has even attempted at least 42 passes in six straight games. The Commanders should need to throw a lot to keep up with the Dolphins’ high-powered offense, so look for Howell to sail past this over.

A pristine matchup for Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill in this one and I think both receivers are likely to hit their overs. With that said, I have seen Tua really focus on Waddle in easier matchups and I expect Waddle to get plenty of targets and YAC (yards after catch). There is some potential rain in the forecast, but not enough to affect the total in this game or slow down a Miami offense facing its easiest matchup of the year.

We hit this prop last week and we're going back to it this week with a similar game script expected. Howell has been over this number in six games in a row and 8 of his last 9. Expect the Dolphins offense to pretty much do whatever they want on offense, forcing Howell into an extremely familiar game script. I think his completions prop is also fair game, but I'll go back to the well with his attempts.

This one is sprinkle worthy if only because the number is so low. Gibson's gone over this weak total in each of his past four games. He also happened to play one more snap than Brian Robinson in the team's Thanksgiving game at Dallas, a blowout loss like this game might be in Week 13. Nonetheless, nearly any running back worth a darn should be able to collect 13 yards on four-plus carries. Gibson has corralled at least four carries in three straight games, has clearly made in-roads on splitting this backfield with Robinson, and takes on a Dolphins run defense that's been great, but even they've allowed at least 13 rush yards to every back with at least four carries this season.

Samuel enters of a 12 target, nine catch, 100 yard performance in a blowout loss to Dallas on Thanksgiving day. The Dolphins play zone the majority of the time and Samuel thrives in that scenario, with a 17.5% first read share and 13.9% target share as the team's #3 or #4 passing option. Samuel has been over 40 yards in six games this season and I'm betting on a seventh in Week 13.

Quick trivia question: through 12 weeks, who leads the NFL in passing yards? The answer: Sam Howell with 3,339. Game script should once again be in the Washington QB's favor with Miami likely leading throughout. He has surpassed the 300 yard mark in four of his last five games and I think it's quite possible yet again on Sunday.

The Commandos broken defense guarantees volume in the pass game for Howell and even when they turn it over 6 times in a game - like against the NYG at home last time out - he still goes over this total. Plenty of guys who can catch the ball for him. They are awful at home and will get behind double digits and maybe could back door this. Howell is over this total in 5 straight and has 107 completions in his last 3 home games (again, where the offense tends to sputter and have to throw like crazy in the second half). We like playing Howell props. You are never out of it

The Dolphins are expected to keep rolling this week against another bad team, but I'm surprised the market is putting Washington at the same level of the Jets (this line is identical to last week's Miami line). Washington has been much better offensively, averaging more than 400 yards over their last five games despite facing some good defenses in that stretch. Miami's defense should take a step back after the injury to Jaelan Phillips, and without his pass rush ability it should be easier for the Commanders to backdoor a cover if needed. Last week was the first time Miami won by more than seven on the road, and I project this line should be right on Miami -7.

This game presents a massive mismatch in one area, with the Commanders giving up the most receiving yards and TDs to wide receivers in the league. They'll face the league's best receiver in Tyreek Hill, who has scored in nine of his 11 games and is lined over 100 receiving yards at many books. Let's just take the need for 100 yards out of the equation and bank on him scoring from somewhere on the field against this defense that has allowed multiple pass TDs on all but one game (at Patriots) since the start of October, including in both Giants games.