Foreman has been the definition of a boom-or-bust producer when given an opportunity over the past few seasons. Last week as the featured back and a favorable matchup, he went for 120 total yards and three TDs. Now he will be sharing duties with promising rookie Roschon Johnson, who returns from injury, and the game script should provide fewer opportunities. Last year, he followed up a 165-yard rushing game with 9 yard the following week.

It's not exactly easy to catch 8 passes in an NFL game. This might be a blowout and Allen is out of there in the third quarter. And there's always chance of an injury. Even if Allen misses just one series, that would probably be enough to win this wager.

Admittedly, I've been back and forth all day here. Based on pure numbers and ratings, the Chargers should win this going away. It's just so difficult to trust this team, let alone to expect them to cover a spread this large. However, at the end of the day, this is Justin Herbert vs. Tyler Bagent. And the fact that you didn't realize when reading that sentence that his name is actually Tyson kind of proves the point. (No disrespect to him intended.) The fact that Bagent is leading a 2-4 team with a dinged up OL against Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack may be all we need to know. That plus Herbert seeking to shake off some uneven performances has me backing the Chargers.

After a rough start to the season, the Chargers run defense has been excellent in three consecutive weeks shutting down Isaiah Pacheco, Tony Pollard, and Josh Jacobs. Now they will face the Bears who are likely giving the majority of the early down work to D'Onta Foreman.

With Gerald Everett inactive, Donald Parham should see an uptick in targets. The Bears give up the second-most catches to tight ends (6.4 per game). I bet Everett to go Over 2.5 grabs at plus money.

Los Angeles is 1-2 at home this season. There’s no question that the Chargers are the better offensive team, but their defense is not. The Chargers defense is allowing 432 yards of total offense to their opponents. Chicago and Tyson Bagent were able to take advantage of a Raiders defense that is below average but not as bad as Los Angeles. The Bears offense could be playing would some momentum behind their D-II quarterback.

Linebacker Kenneth Murray leads the Chargers in defensive snaps (413) and should be heavily involved Sunday night trying to stop the Bears' running game and short passes. He has cleared this tackle number in four of his last five games, and is one of only two fulltime linebackers in LA's defensive alignment. Look for at least seven stops.

Tyson Bagent was able to hit this number last week in a positive game script and I expect him to be in an even better situation this week. Not only does he get another bad defense, but he also gets a likely negative game script where he's forced to throw. Last week the Bears kept it simple for Bagent, giving him short area and highly efficient passes the entire game. Expect more of the same on Sunday Night Football.

Chicago is one of the three worst teams v opposing RBs catching the ball. Ekeler is now healthy while much of the WR core for the Volts is not. Ekeler should eat in the pass game. Over.

Shout out to those who believe you can't lay this many points with the Chargers against any opponent. But if there were ever a time, this is it. The Bears head West with their backup QB, a beat-up backfield and a dinged secondary. If Los Angeles can't get right here, its situation is even worse than most imagine.

Austin Ekeler was ineffective at K.C., averaging 3.2 yards per carry while catching one of two targets for 1 yard. Ekeler could struggle again on the ground against this Chicago defense. But it's a great spot for Ekeler as a receiver. Chicago allows the second-most receiving yards to opposing running backs (56.9 per game). Look for Ekeler to make an impact as a receiver, akin to his first two games this season when he averaged 41 receiving yards.

D'Onte Foreman is coming into his role has RB1. As the starter the past 2 weeks, he had 65 yards on 15 carries and 89 on 16 carries. The over is 14-4 since 2021 when he gets double digit carries. I'd like to say the Bears will take advantage of the Chargers terrible pass defense but i'm not sure they are capable of doing so. This is a team that will want to win time of possession and keep Justin Herbert off the field.

I know the Bears are coming off of a great win against the Raiders last weekend. But they got no real threat from the opposing QB in that game, which won't be the case in this one. Look for the more talented Chargers to put pressure on the Bears offense to score, and their defense to stop them from scoring.

Tyson Bagent is a great story, but this is his first road start and his offensive line could be in trouble versus Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa and Morgan Fox. It doesn't help that rookie right tackle Darnell Wright is dealing with shoulder and toe injuries. Chicago likely will go run-heavy, but this Chargers defense is actually solid in that area (3.9 ypc allowed). Justin Herbert should have a big night against a Bears secondary nursing injuries. It's hard to back a 2-4 team laying a big number, but in this case it's the right play.

The Bears haven't allowed an opponent to eclipse 20 points in three consecutive games and have been stingy after their defense was torched early in the season. It will be the Tyson Bagent show for Chicago and while he played well, the Bears were extremely conservative with him under center and relied heavily on their ground game and short passing. On the Chargers side Justin Herbert doesnt look 100% due to a finger injury and their offense just hasn't been the same sans Mike Williams. I think the under is a solid look at these defenses are playing better than the numbers suggest.

Props to Tyson Bagent, the obscure rookie QB, stepping in for the injured Justin Fields and guiding Chicago to a win. The play-calling was cautious, with Bagent's average completion gain under eight yards, and one of the Bears' four TDs happened on a pick-six. Now let's see if he can repeat it with an opponent able to game-plan with film of him. The Chargers have managed 17 points in each of the past two games, which has coincided by QB Justin Herbert's fractured finger. Still, the Bears will aim to keep L.A.'s potent offense on the sideline with game-shortening runs and low-risk throws, which puts an Under in the offing.