There's no doubt that the Bills have been one of the most complete teams in the league over the first four weeks, while the Chiefs have looked like they don't have a clue what to do on defense. However, let's not get it twisted. Kansas City has the better quarterback, and it has superior playmakers. It's also playing a home game coming off a get-right road win. KC has not had a lull in its schedule yet this season, while Buffalo has feasted on four (relatively) pitiful teams. The Chiefs ended their ATS woes last week, and I believe they found enough of a spark defensively that it could carry over into a tremendous primetime matchup. This line was right at -3, and now it's valuable at -2.5 as I have Kansas City as a 4-point home favorite.

Buffalo enters with the best points differential in the NFL at plus-90. The Bills' shutout victories over Houston and Miami were against backup quarterbacks. The step up in class against the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes will make a big difference. Look for Kansas City to beat the Bills for the third time in the past two seasons.

The Chiefs' porous defense gives up an NFL-high 6.9 yards per play and might be without Chris Jones, who is questionable with a wrist injury after not practicing all week. I trust the Bills to put up plenty of points and get at least a couple stops thanks to their revived pass rush and extremely stingy run defense (3.24 yards per carry). Buffalo ranks first at 4.0 yards per play allowed. Grab the points.

My model says Buffalo covers 55 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value at +3. I realize the Bills have beaten three teams with backup quarterbacks the last three week, but the team has been dominant, outscoring teams 118-21. That's absurd. Buffalo has ridden the NFL's No. 1 defense during its three-game winning streak. Meanwhile Kansas City's defense ranks last in the league in multiple categories. The Bills have circled this game since last season's AFC Championship Game loss. They'll be ready.

The Bills come in with the No. 1 defense, but it has been built on beating bad teams with no offense. And they also lost to one of them (Steelers). Buffalo won at Miami, 35-0, when its starting QB went out in the first quarter. Then the Bills won 43-21 against Washington. Then last week they won 40-0 against a backup QB (Houston's Davis Mills) making his first road start. The Chiefs' No. 2 offense is going to put on a show just when everyone is jumping off the K.C. bandwagon. I made the Chiefs -3.5. The Bills lost the AFC Championship Game last season at Kansas City, 38-24. Chiefs get right and get the cover.

Let's be honest, this is going to be one hell of a game. Two of the best offenses in the NFL and a good shot previewing the AFC Championship. Taking the Bills +3 here for a few reasons. First, happy to get this number at +3 instead of +2.5. Next, I'll gladly ride this Buffalo train until they tell me to stop. House money if you've ridden them the last few weeks. Finally, the Bills have won its last three regular season road games by 22+ points. The Chiefs? They haven't covered at home in six straight...and I worry about that defense. Too tough to pass up Buffalo with points.

Riddle me this: The matchup of Super Bowl contenders has been assigned a higher total than any other Chiefs game all season, yet the defense Kansas City confronts is by far the nastiest in the league through four weeks? Buffalo owns two shutouts and allows 11.0 points per game and 216.8 yards per game, both the fewest in the league. K.C. is 3-1 on the Over, and the public might anticipate a Josh Allen-Patrick Mahomes scorefest, but that would contrast how Buffalo games have unfolded.

Buffalo could be down top linebacker Matt Milano, while Kansas City's shaky defense apparently will get back two key pieces in end Frank Clark and cornerback Charvarius Ward as both have practiced this week. I understand why a lot of experts will be on the Bills with their three-game dominant run, but that was against Tua Tagovailoa/Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heinicke and Davis Mills. The Chiefs have a guy by the name of Patrick Mahomes, and he's still vastly superior to Josh Allen. Mahomes also led two pretty easy wins over the Bills last season, and I'm not sure that much has changed. If this was in Buffalo, maybe I'd take the Bills but not at Arrowhead.

This one is simple: I just think Buffalo is better. The Bills defense might be the best in the NFL right now. And the offense can score points with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Playing in Kansas City won't bother this team. I'm on Buffalo.

Buffalo has gotten back on the winning track after their season-opening loss to Pittsburgh, reeling off three.straight victories. Granted, the Bills played three inferior squads, but they did what they had to do, which is blow them out. Now, they face a stiffer test in Kansas City, one that should be as entertaining as it is a challenging, because of the Chiefs' offense. Look for a back-and-forth affair, but with the Chiefs having the better QB, I expect them to be able to cover this spread easily.

This is one you want to play early in the week when you can still get Bills +3, as it's going to come off the number and the sharps won't let it settle back on 3 after. Why? Because the Bills have been the better team to date. That's not based on them thrashing the Fighting Davis Millses last week, but rather the continued excellence of a defense that has given up a league-best 4.0 yards per play is second at pressure rate on opposing QBs. The Chiefs won't just be able to march down the field repeatedly, and since their defense has been bad (including a league-worst 6.9 yards per play), aren't the Bills the better team right now?