Jarrett Allen averages 14.3 points at home...

Will it be a gentleman's sweep for the Pacers?...

Value on OKC in Game 5?...

Our model projects Pascal Siakam for 20 points in this buy-low spot. He has not scored 20+ in his last five games. He comes in 12-7 under this number recently, but despite that he is still 54-32 (62.8%) over 17.5 points this season and 6-1 over against Cleveland before this playoff series. Although the Pacers were blown out, Siakam managed 18 points in just 28 minutes in Game 3, which could translate to a better offensive start in Game 4. His backups have either struggled with their shooting or have not been playing, making Siakam a likely candidate for 35+ minutes. He has scored 18 or more points in 28 of 40 games (70%) when playing at least 34 minutes this season.

Our simulations indicate a 65% chance of the game coming in under 231.5 points, as both teams are projected to shoot under 37% combined. Cleveland has struggled from three-point range, shooting under 30% in the first three games of the series. Indiana's three-point shooting has also declined, from 53% in Game 1 to 39% in Game 2, and just 30% in Game 3. The growing familiarity and rivalry between these teams should lead to more defensive stops. The factors that led to overs in the previous games, such as Indiana's hot 53% 3pt shooting in Game 1 and the absence of key defenders, DPOY Evan Mobley and De'Andre Hunter in Game 2, are not present for Game 4.

The model and oddsmakers favor OKC to win this game, with money line odds around -235. When OKC wins, it's typically a dominating performance, often featuring a strong +10 streak in the first quarter. Therefore, if you believe in OKC's overall victory, betting on them to cover the first quarter spread of -1.5 is more appealing given their recent history.

Karl-Anthony Towns has not attempted two or more threes in his last three games, making this a valuable bet at nearly 2:1 odds. We love this much +$$$ on a line well under his projection of 1.8 and average of 1.9. The Knicks' "strategy" of coming back from 20-point down in the second-half is clearly not sustainable. Getting Towns to take six or more threes and make two or more is a sustainable strategy that will help the team start faster. He had a similar slow start from three-point range in the Detroit series but came out firing in Game 3. We're buying low on his 8-3 Under stretch since March 28th and are jumping on his 43-26, 62.3% over trend before March 28th.

"Live by the three, die by the three" is a well-known NBA phrase, and Boston's 25% three-point shooting in the first two games has been an example of dying by the three. High turnover rates and lack of production in the paint have compounded their struggles. We backed New York in Game 2 because Boston's three-point differential dropped significantly compared to last year's championship team, and Kristaps Porzingis isn't performing well. Boston's three-point differential this season was +2.1, down from +3.5 last season. If 1.4 percentage points doesn't sound like a lot, it is. It's the gap between being 8th in the league (a playoff t versus 17th (a lottery team). Porzingis is still recovering from a respiratory illness, playing limited minutes and contributing minimally.

This line is set under Evan Mobley's projection of 2.9 and his average of 3.1. It's set low because this season his average is much lower on the road (2.7) than at home (3.4), and his over rate is just 47.4% (vs 68.4% at home). But I see a player who is "due" coming in on a 5-1 Under stretch, prior to which he had 7 straight overs and 16-5 if you extend it back to late February. While Mobley is a game-time decision, you have to figure he will not only play but play his full minutes, even with a sprained ankle given how desperate the Cavs are for the win. Perhaps the ankle injury will limit his mobility and offensive aggressiveness.

After two shocking losses on their home court, the Cavaliers will be locked in defensively, assuming defensive player of the year Evan Mobley and De'Andre Hunter are back. The model has a 55% lean on the full game under, but because of how close the projected score is, this could go into overtime, which is why we prefer taking the first quarter total. One big reason why the Cavs won 30 games on the road in the regular season is they had a better 2pt defense on the road (allowing 52%) than at home while allowing the same low 36% from 3pt range. Indiana is also a better defense at home, allowing 2 fewer points and holding teams to just 35% 3pt shooting at home.

After two straight insanely bad 3pt shooting nights from the Timberwolves, we knew we’d have buy low odds for their top shooters and looked for the best value. We found Randle as the ‘classic’ situation we love where the player’s average (1.6) and projection (1.7) are over the line and we are getting +$$$. It is unusual that Randle averages over 1.5 but his Over% is just 30-45, 40% on the season and not closer to 50/50. But we optimistically see this as a situation where after 3-1 unders coming in, Randle will start the game hot from three and a cover early!

With Steph Curry out, the line opened at -9 and has steamed further to -10.5. In years past, Steph Curry being out would move the line 5 to 6 points in the model, but in this case, it only moved it 2 points. Curry can still be the focal point of the offense, but with Buddy Hield, Brandin Podziemski, and Moses Moody, they have players who can ‘inherit’ Steph’s 10 3pt shots and hit them at nearly the same rate (37% for these 3 vs 39% for Steph). Gary Payton is a great defensive player, so if Payton gets more minutes, it helps on that end of the floor. He certainly contributed to Minnesota shooting horrifically from 3pt range in Game 1.

I am basically going all in on Chet Holmgren as the key to OKC covering the first quarter, getting defensive rebounds to limit Denver’s scoring. His home trend is not good with just a 13.8 average (7-13 over 14.5) compared to his 17.1 avg (12-5 over) on the road. But this unusual split is due to how dominant OKC was in the regular season at home, but no one expects Game 2 of the playoffs vs a championship team to be like smashing the Hornets at home in December. When he has 30+ minutes the over is 12-2. Our projection of 16.1 is in 31 minutes

In simulations the under is hitting over 70% of the time with an average model total of 217. I’m not sure if I’m THAT confident but this line is up significantly from the early lookahead total (221.5) and the closing line of 228.5 from Game 1 (opened 225.5). Pending success in the playoffs, this season’s OKC team could go down as one of the 5 best defensive teams of all time. As projected they forced a ton of turnovers while also holding Denver to 44% shooting (just 31% from three). Getting the defensive rebound is part of finishing the defensive possession and if OKC does that they should limit Denver’s offense and not have to score more than 120 themselves to win.

Boston was a very good +2.1 in 3pt differential this season, but they were a stellar +3.5 last season. A 1.4 percentage point drop may not sound like a lot but but it’s the difference between being 8th in the league (Indiana) vs being 17th in the league (Toronto). I do not see this as a simple case of Boston regressing to the mean after they were -21% in 3pt differential in Game 1. They will certainly be closer than that in Game 2, but not necessarily be +5 or even +2%. I also love that NY knows they can’t be satisfied with just a split at Boston because the Celtics are a better team on the road than they are at home.