Buy low on Pascal Siakam in Game 6...

Will the Pacers start fast in Game 6?...

With a projection of 16 and 7 we are closer to Myles Turner's season average of 22 (52-34, 60.5% over 19.5) and are buying low on his 19 average (3-1 Under) in this series. Mitchell Robinson starting and playing more minutes has helped NY build big rebounding advantages but in Game 4 his +/- was -20 so maybe that leads Thibs to go back to his 'beloved' strategy of running the Villanova players into the ground. If Robinson is not on the floor more than 18 minutes then that gives Turner some opportunity to operate down low more than usual (shooting 18/24, 75% on twos vs just 4/17, 23.5% on threes) vs a hurting Karl-Anthony Towns.

The recipe for success for Indiana has been the same: fewer turnovers and shoot well from three point range (41, 43, 41% in wins). These factors have overcome their often significant rebounding disadvantage (-11, -6, -7 in their wins). So the big coaching adjustment by Thibs of starting Mitchell Robinson in an effort to really dominate the boards has resulted in dominating the boards but not the scoreboard. The model projects IND to hit 37% of 35 3pt attempts (13 makes) and NY to hit just 34% of 33 attempts and this +6 points offsets the +5 rebounding advantage we project for the Knicks. Six points is worth more than the roughly 3 points that NY gets from their rebounding advantage.

Naz Reid is projected for 11 points. He averaged over 13.5 this season and while he averages less on the road, the over 9.5 rate was still a solid 29-17, 63% (over 77% at home). We never pass up +$$$ value on a line under both a player's projection and average when that player's minutes and usage are 100% predictable. We are getting buy low value because he is averaging around 8 pts per game his last 7 but he does come in with 3 straight double digit games. If anything, he could play an even larger role than usual because Julius Randle, as skilled as he is, is a turnover waiting to happen vs OKC's defense.

We have the same% (66%) of the full game under 220.5 as we do for OKC to cover so the model projection is entirely based on MIN coming under their team total. I am taking the first half under because this could get out of hand and all bets are off as far as defensive intensity in the second half if OKC is up 30. Expect regression to the mean from long range for both teams after the hot 3pt shooting in Game 3. The series has gone way over the line in the last 3 resulting in this line being up to 221 in some spots, and a full 4 points higher than Game 2's closing consensus.

The model has OKC covering this in 66% of simulations. I would say there is a 50% chance of this being a normal, dominating OKC game where they win by their average of around 15 points and a 16% chance that the game is tight throughout but a late OKC run gets the cover. I'm glad MIN managed to keep Game 4 close and cover the spread because it is keeping this line tighter than it should be. But I have even more confidence in OKC because of their clutch shot making in situations where teams without championship mettle would have folded. The Thunder will cover because of the "death and taxes" inevitability of their style of play… turnovers and two point differential at home.

A key to every relationship is getting to know what makes the other person tick and when they are going to be up or down. In this betting relationship we have with Siakam we want to time his downs with unders and his ups with overs. He followed his Game 1 down (17 points) with a dominating Game 2 up (39 points). He came back down in Game 3 with just 17 points on just 14 FGAs. He has gone over this line in 56% of his games this season but is on just a 7-3 Under stretch which is providing us a buy low spot. Last season this was a lock at 65% over 25.5 PTS+REB.

Like the OKC-MIN series, the winner of Game 3 (who lost games 1,2) did not gain confidence in betting markets and are a bigger underdog after their win than before it. The Knicks close +1.5 in Game 3 and now are +2/+2.5 on Tuesday. The Pacers controlled 3/4ths of the game and even with KAT getting hot from three the Pacers still held NY to just 34% 3pt shooting. The Pacers lost because they shot 20% from three point range. Regression to the mean in this case should be a much better shooting night from three point range (36.5% projected) and a Pacers slight cover.

This line is set below Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's projection (1.7) and his season average (2.0), and our general rule is to take plus money in these situations. While we agree with oddsmakers that OKC is unlikely to shoot well from deep overall, we still price the over at -115. SGA has hit this mark in just 3 of his last 9 games, but two of those overs came in his last two road games. On the season, the over is 55-36 (60.4%), which supports the value here. In playoff games where he didn't attempt 10+ free throws, he's taken 48 threes across 8 games—an encouraging volume. With a projected 33% shooting rate from deep and 6+ attempts, he has a solid chance to clear this line.

The Thunder's Game 3 loss was largely decided in the first quarter, where they were thoroughly outplayed and never managed to impose their season long strengths—creating turnovers and defending the three-point line. This early deficit set the tone for the rest of the game. The -120 price on the first quarter money line aligns well with our model's full-game win probability. This bet offers better value than the full-game money line at -155 on DraftKings. Historically, the Thunder have responded well after poor performances. After a loss in Game 3 at Denver, they came out with suffocating defense in Game 4, holding Denver to just 8 points in the first quarter. That kind of bounce-back potential is key here.

Our model projects a total of 215 points for this game, giving the under a 57% probability of hitting. We also liked the under in Game 3, and the Thunder did their part by continuing their trend of poor three-point shooting on the road—under 30% in most playoff road games, with a few late-game makes pushing them to 32% in Game 3. Oklahoma City averages five fewer points on the road compared to home games, and that trend is unlikely to reverse in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Minnesota shot an unsustainably high percentage in Game 3—62% on twos and 50% on threes—while dominating the boards. However, OKC has shown the ability to adjust defensively, particularly in rebounding, as they did after a rough outing against Denver.

This is a strong buy-low opportunity on Ben Mathurin. He played a major role against Milwaukee and early in the Cleveland series but has been quiet since being ejected early in Game 4 of that series. Despite a recent 3-1 under stretch and a 10.8 average over his last nine games, his home splits are elite: he's 37-4 (90.2%) to the over on this line at home, averaging 21.5 Points + Rebounds, compared to 18.7 on the road. Mathurin consistently gets early rotation minutes. Even if he doesn't reach his usual 30 minutes, he's 8-3 to the over when playing just 17–22 minutes. In Game 1 against New York, he posted 9 points and 3 rebounds in 21 minutes.

Getting the Pacers at -2 at home is excellent value, especially considering they are the younger, deeper, more athletic, and healthier team—and they're better coached. A -2 line implies that New York would be favored on a neutral court, which doesn't align with either recent performance or underlying metrics. These teams have played each other frequently over the past 12 months, and there's little to suggest the Knicks are as good and are certainly not better. Some bettors may expect a "Cleveland-style" bounce-back from New York (Indiana's Game 3 loss after going up 2-0 in that series). The Pacers are fully aware of that letdown and should come out with the same urgency they showed in their dominant Game 4 win over the Cavaliers.

This is a strong buy-low opportunity. Aaron Wiggins is projected for 6.0 points and averaged 11.1 during the regular season. Despite scoring just 7 points across four playoff games (excluding an 8-point outing in the Denver blowout), his road splits are encouraging: 11.6 PPG on the road vs. 10.7 at home and over 4.5 points in 35 of 43 road games (81.4%). Wiggins is one of five perimeter bench players tasked with defending and "heat checking" from three. With Isaiah Joe seemingly out of the rotation, Wiggins could see more minutes if either Cason Wallace or Kenrich Williams miss their first few wide open looks. If Wiggins gets even 4 shots in 12 minutes for just half of his season average, he cashes this over.