1-8 ATS the last 9, hmm ...

Rolling with 6-2 ATS over 1-5 ATS. That's just me ...

When you have trends like 2-7, 2-7 and 1-5, I am probably on the other side ...

I'm looking at 10-2 ATS and margin of victory and seeing one way to play this game ...

Tyrese Haliburton gets a major discount. ..

Anthony Davis is playing like a legit MVP and is having a career best season for the Lakers. With that being said, this is a substantial combo line in what is certainly a difficult matchup. The Magic boast one of the best defenses in the league, in addition to being very stingy on opposing Centers, surrendering the third lowest combined PRA to the position. In a paced down environment, Davis needs to either be highly efficient (even by his standards), or increased usage to top this number.

Dalton Knecht will be in the starting lineup for the foreseeable future. The Magic are ranked second in defensive efficiency, but they are ranked 18th in three-point defense. Dalton averages 11.3 points per game, shooting 52.3% from the field and an outstanding 46.4% from three-point range. He has a quick release and is highly polished after a long college career at Tennessee. His points prop needs to be higher, especially with increased playing time.

Yes, the Magic are the second half of a back-to-back following a loss to the Clippers. In that game, they struggled from 3-point range but I thought their defense was still very good. The Lakers have had the softest schedule in November: Take the points.

The Magic are playing better ball after getting over the shock of losing their best player indefinitely, but they remain a team you back at home and fade on road. Magic are 2-6 ATS on road and 1-5 ATS as a road dog, losing those games on average by 8.5 points. Lakers are playing strong team ball and LBJ is locked in. Lakers are 5-2 AST at home, winning on average by 8.4 points. Magic playing back to back while Lakers are more rested. Lakers can hone in on Franz Wagner and make perimeter shooting a struggle and I like this match-up for AD as well.

I'm not saying this is my NBA play of the year, because I don't have a 1-800 number and don't really do that sort of thing. But man. The Magic are playing as we speak also in LA against the Clippers, and it's close at the half. So presumably no rest for any key guys. Have to say the Lakers hiring JJ Redick looks great so far. I am moderately concerned that LA's James is doubtful ... oh wait, that's Bronny. Barring a key Lakers player ruled out (none questionable) or Paolo Banchero returning on Thursday for Orlando (he isn't), I truly will be shocked if the Magic win this game in their third road outing in four nights to complete a West Coast trip.

Dalton Knecht scored 37 points Tuesday against the Jazz. This is a much more difficult matchup against the Magic, but the Magic could have tired legs as this is the second game of a back-to-back set for them. Also, Knecht has scored at least 14 points in four straight games. This line has been set too low to ignore.

This is a tough situation for the Magic, who just played Wednesday against the Clippers. They lost that game by 11 points and are now 2-7 ATS on the road. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 7-0 at home with six of those wins coming by at least five points. This is a great spot for the Lakers to cover the spread.

The Magic finally stumbled Thursday against the Clippers after their six-game win streak. But it wasn't the fault of a defense that still held up well in a 104-93 loss. Look for that performance trend to hold up again and play the Under.

Jakob Poeltl is in the midst of a career best season, however I don't think his usage rate is sustainable, in addition to his current rate of production. This would also qualify as a very difficult matchup against a Timberwolves interior defense anchored by one of the greatest interior defenders in NBA history in Rudy Gobert. Poeltl is coming off of three consecutive 25+ point scoring games while totaling 90 points on an impressive 41-57 from the field. With a low total and a 7 point spread, there is also some additional blowout potential here.

The same exact spread movement has occurred between the Charlotte Hornets and Detroit Pistons as their first matchup. Charlotte opened as -1.5, and flipped to the Hornets side as the favorite. Charlotte won by a point thanks to a Brandon Miller game winner. A big reason for their win was the free throw disparity. Charlotte made sixteen while the Pistons took only five. Detroit’s lack of an ability to get to the free throw line does them in again. Take Charlotte.