When the spread is this size, one of these teams is 9-2 ATS, covering by 9 points per game ...

Back to back spots haven't worked well for one of these teams ...

This is simply a massive combo line for Giannis who is averaging a combined 17.9 rebounds and assists. Giannis has failed to eclipse this prop in 21/31 games this season. Sacramento surrenders the 6th fewest rebounds per game, in addition to the 11th fewest assists per game. I have Giannis projected for 16.7 combined RA which is a sizable edge.

This number is too low for Dejounte Murray who averages a combined 30.9 PRA on the season. This game projects to be paced up and has a healthy 239.5 point total. Murray has quietly been playing his best basketball of the season recently and over his last five games is averaging 21/7/7.5, good for over 35 PRA per game. I expect Murray to once again stuff the stat sheet in what is an optimal matchup.

Malik Monk (17.2 PPG, 5.4 APG) is out for the suddenly scorching-hot Kings, who have won seven straight to get above .500, but this is the end of a trip through the East. The Bucks laid a huge egg in New York on Sunday, so I'm sure Doc Rivers is expecting a major bounce-back here. Milwaukee is 15-1 in the past 16 meetings.

DraftKings. Nikola Vucevic has been a model of consistency for the up and down Bulls. Averaging 30.3 points + rebounds this season, he’s cleared this line in 28/38 games. Now he gets the Pelicans soft interior defense. New Orleans allows the second most at rim points in the league, and the fifth most rebounds.

The Phoenix Suns are on the upswing having won four out of their last five games, including three straight. One of those victories was against tonight’s opponent in the Atlanta Hawks. Phoenix had one of their more fluid balanced games as four players scored over twenty points in Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, Grayson Allen, and Bradley Beal. Take the Suns to cover and get their fourth straight victory.

We attempt to see thru the expansive NBA daily injury report for this clash. More specifically, Hawks bombardier Trae Young appeared this morning, listed with an illness, though sources indicate his presence at the morning shootaround suggests he should be available tonight. Fundamentally this is a quick turnaround from last Thursday's 123-115 Suns win at Phoenix, when Atlanta couldn't hold a second-half lead after scoring 72 points prior to intermission. Subsequently, the Hawks had a game postponed at home vs. the Rockets due to winter storms in Atlanta. The Suns are no road warriors, however, with problems as a visitor. They've lost 10 of their last 12 games away, and the current three-game uptick all occurred in the desert. Play Hawks

Donovan Mitchell has had a very month of January averaging only 16 PPG on 38% shooting. As a result, we're getting a nice discount here and this is a nice buy low spot for Mitchell. The Pacers play at the 10th fastest pace, while ranking 20th in Defensive Efficiency. While Indiana's defense has improved, they still present an excellent matchup and are still a plus matchup for opposing scoring guards. Mitchell is too good to continue struggling and I like his chances of busting out of his scoring slump. I'd play this up to 23.5.

It's hard not to fade the 76ers at home. They have failed to cover six in a row and eight of 10 and have a 4-13 ATS record at home this season. All of the issues seem to show up more at home where the crowd is bracing to boo them. It seems like a long time ago when the Sixers were covering on a West Coast swing. I like the Thunder with a day to practice on the East Coast coming off a complete dismantling of the Wizards. Washington could at least run with OKC, but I don't think the Sixers can. The Thunder have covered seven of the last eight overall, and I don't see them sleepwalking through this one.

I know the Pacers just beat the Cavs, but that's part of why I like Cleveland. The Cavaliers have been on such a run that at times maybe it's difficult to get up for certain games. I think Indiana got their attention now. Cleveland has covered five straight on the road, and its average margin of cover in those games is 5.4 points. The Cavs tend to blow people out once they get the offense going, and I don't think the Pacers can withstand the Twin Tower presence inside the paint. Some run-and-gun teams like Atlanta and Indiana have been a problem for Cleveland, but I expect a correction.

The Pacers' Obi Toppin faces a difficult rebounding matchup Tuesday, as Cleveland gives up the third-fewest rebounds to his position. Toppin grabbed two rebounds in 18 minutes when these teams played Sunday. Look for Toppin to fall below five rebounds for the eighth time in his last 11 games.

Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton is not expected to play tonight and while TJ McConnell might not start for him, he will play a lot more minutes. The SL Model has McConnell at 19.1 P/A. He nearly got to this number in Sunday's upset of Cleveland in just 17 minutes. I expect at least 10 more minutes tonight.

Caesar’s. The Oklahoma City Thunder have proven to be an outlier matchup as it pertains to pick and roll ball handlers. They are allowing the second fewest points plus assists to opposing point guards, and the second fewest points against both the pick and roll and in transition. Even without Joel Embiid, I’ll trust the defense of Luke Dort, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace, as they will focus on Tyrese Maxey. As is, Maxey is under this line in 10/21 without Embiid, including 7/10 vs the top 15 defenses (OKC is number 1).

Isaiah Hartenstein has dished out at least four assists in seven of his last nine games. For the season, he is averaging 4.2 assists per game. Joel Embiid (foot) and Andre Drummond (toe) have both been ruled out for the 76ers, so Hartenstein has the potential to dominate this matchup. There is some blowout concern, but I think Hartenstein will play enough to hit this over.