Norman Powell (groin strain) has a chance to play tonight for the Heat; though reportedly this is a game-time decision for Erik Spoelstra. Nonetheless, even without Powell the past two games, Miami has been yet to drop a spread decision in all five of its games this season. Already minus Tyler Herro until mid-November, the Heat is finding other options, with big guns like Bam Adebayo stepping it up a notch further (such as his 31 points scored vs. the Spurs on Thursday). Luka Doncic has returned to active duty for the Lake Show and continued his 40-point surge, but LA is also playing 'em close, with its last two wins this week by six points total. Play Heat

I believe the Raptors are the better team in this spot considering Memphis is really banged up and Ja Morant is suspended (and the team might be infighting). The Grizz have Jaren Jackson and not a ton more. Honestly, my biggest worry is simply the mood of the City of Toronto. There might not be a home-court advantage in this one with everyone probably still just shell-shocked over that incredible World Series game. Hopefully the Dinos can provide a bit of good news. It's the front end of a B2B for Memphis and one of those one-game trips that players hate.

Joel Embiid (rest) will not play against the Nets. Adem Bona started and played 25 minutes in the only other game that Embiid has missed this season, posting seven points and four rebounds in a difficult matchup against the Magic. When Bona started the final nine games of last season, he averaged 15.3 points and 8.6 rebounds. With plenty of minutes likely coming his way against the worst team in the league, I like him to hit this over.

I won't be playing many totals this season but will throw a half unit down on this one simply as it's such an unknown variable playing at altitude in Mexico City. Plus, fans could be in there firing up lung darts, burning stuff and downing malt liquor like an old Lithuanian game highlight you would see via grainy footage or something. The Mavs are really short-handed anyways down Anthony Davis and others and have topped this number just once. It's also their first game outside of Dallas.

The Boston Celtics with their new lineup it’s a process every night to tinker and adjust. Playing in a back to back spot figures to be the toughest spot, as they run so many players in and out of the lineup. That should give the Rockets the upper hand with their big lineup to wear down the Celtics. Take Houston as they win their third straight game and cover the number.

After starting the season 0-2, the Rockets have won two straight in impressive fashion but a pretty big number in Boston. The Celtics, who have looked vastly better in their two home games, are listing Derrick White and Payton Pritchard as probable. In real life that means they should play. But the NBA is far from real life when it comes to trusting injury statii (not the real plural of status but it works to emphasize the point), so you may want to wait to make sure. But then this might drop a half-point or the like. Our model has Rockets by 2. The C's did play and win last night in Philly but no one played heavy minutes.

The Celtics have won 3 straight after last night's rousing win over the Sixers, avenging a one-point opening night loss to Philly. Jayson Tatum's absence is a big one but Boston has several weapons capable of filling the gap, and Jaylen Brown has had no trouble assuming a featured scoring role, scoring at a near 27 ppg pace. Ex-Blazer Anfernee Simons is also helping fill the Tatum gap, scoring 19 in last night's win at Philly. Meanwhile, the Rockets have only won two of four, predictably beating the lesser teams they faced (Nets and Raptors) and losing to the better teams (Pistons and Thunder, though honorably vs. OKC, taking the game to OT). Fred VanVleet's absence might be more impactful than many realize. Play Celtics

This will be the third straight game that Anthony Edwards (hamstring) has missed. When he sat out Monday against the Nuggets, Julius Randle scored 24 points over 35 minutes. He followed that up with 33 points over 36 minutes versus the Lakers on Wednesday. The Hornets have played at the sixth-fastest pace and they have the fifth-worst defensive rating in the league, which leaves Randle with significant scoring upside.

Phoenix is not a good rebounding team. They were outrebounded by 2 per game last season and by 3 to start this season. They are much better at home which is why this line is lower than expected. Utah just lost to Portland because they were 'only' +7 on the boards. They are +12 on the boards so far to start the season. Nurkic is projected for over 7 in just 18 minutes tonight. He's had two double digit rebounding games in just 18 minutes this season. When he gets 16 to 22 minutes he is averaging 7.1 boards and is over 5.5 in 13 of 20 games since last season. That is the sweet spot we see for him tonight.

FanDuel. Walker Kessler has cleared this line in three of four games this season, including a 25-point, 11-rebound outing against the Suns last week. Phoenix is very weak defensively on the interior, and are getting destroyed on the offensive glass (fourth most allowed, and second highest offensive rebound rate to opponents). Kessler thrives on the offensive glass, and is also seeing plenty of touches in the revamped Jazz offense. I’d bet this up to over 24.5, or over 13.5 points.

Walker Kessler has scored at least 18 points in three of his four games this season. He is shooting 75.0% from the field, which comes on the heels of him shooting 66.3% last season. When he faced the Suns on Monday, he torched them for 25 points on 9-for-12 shooting from the field. The Suns have allowed the eighth-most points in the paint per game in the NBA, which puts Kessler in a favorable spot to hit this over.

Lauri Markkanen has scored at least 32 points in each of the last three games for the Jazz. That included a game against the Suns in which he scored 51 points. He has been more aggressive this season, averaging 8.8 free-throw attempts per game and posting a 27.8% usage rate. The Suns have the third-worst defensive rating in the league and will be missing their best defender in Dillon Brooks (groin), so look for Markkanen to stay hot.

We're still wondering how the Blazers could blow a 12-point lead with three minutes to play on Wednesday and let the Jazz level the score...before Portland prevailed. In the end, all worked out for the Blazers as they survived, and we still suspect this might be a sneaky go-with side, with the addition of Jrue Holiday so far a big plus (and it might be a further plus that Scoot Henderson has been out). Denver is 3-0 since losing the opener in OT at Golden State...the same Warriors who were beaten by 20 the next night in Portland. Play Blazers

The LA Lakers got big news today with the return of Luka Doncic, who has missed the last three games. In his first two games he scored over 40 points, but also took an average of twenty five shots. Additionally, we also have an example of Reaves carrying the Lakers as the number one option with 45 points against the Pacers last season. When Doncic entered the lineup the Lakers dropped two games to the Jazz and Charlotte Hornets. Take the home team here with the Memphis Grizzlies.

We are projecting Austin Reaves for 39.5, so there's not a ton of line value and we are assuming / hoping that Luka does in fact make his return. But we are mostly expecting him to regress to his already high mean after averaging just under 50 PRA in 5 games this season. Reaves is being priced as an MVP with SGA like lines and that's just not sustainable. Between Luka's presence at least reducing Reaves' assists and rebounds and/or having an off day shooting we expect under for AR.