Nothing in this series has suggested the Mavericks have any chance against the Celtics. Why would that suddenly change? This should be a five-point line. Vegas is hoping you fall for the “backs against the wall” narrative. Don’t.

Will be flat-out honest here. It never occurred to me to bet turnovers. I try to be a glass half-full guy in life but nothing gives me more joy than wanting Martin Maldonado of the White Sox to be horrid, so that's clearly not half full. Then I saw Tom Fornelli play Under this number and I'm like huh. This truly fascinates me as a bet now. Obviously I knew it existed but I guess I never framed it that way. Never really rooted for an NBA player to, you know, be awful. This will be a fun one. Also Jontay Porter is on this so ... hey he can do what he wants now.

Boston is 7-0 SU on the road in the postseason. The public is all over the Celtics and for good reason, they’re the better team. It’s tough to back Dallas after how they’ve performed during this series. The Mavericks bench hasn’t been the same and they’ve been exploited in every which way. However, it’s difficult to think with how good Dallas is defensively that they’ll get swept. With Luka fouling out last game, he’s definitely heard all the criticism for him to have a big game and extend the series for at least one more game.

If Portzingis plays Luka will shoot. Let’s take it

The fact Luka fouled out and has been banged around by the media over the last days leads me to think he will get over this number. I think he will get calls and get to the Ft line. I worry if he’s truly healthy and if the Mavs are not in a close game (either way) late….but over.

Holiday went under…but it was because he had a strange game missing several shots around the rim. Let’s play against it happening again. Over.

Prichard is too good to continue here. Plus, we know he will take at least 2….I say he makes one tonight.

The Celtics squandered a 21-point lead in Game 3 but still found the resolve to close it out when Dallas had all the momentum on its side. Barring a borderline no-show by the Celtics, it's difficult to envision the Mavericks having the motivation and execution to avoid the sweep.

Tatum has played fantastic offensively besides his shooting. He's getting the extra defensive attention and the potential assists should be there again. If Boston shoots well, which I believe they will, those will add up, and I like Tatum to also settle into his own shot with the pressure of the not losing the title all but gone. Tatum was aggressive in Game 3 and I think he will be again. Take the over.

Doncic has cleared this number just one in this series, and not by far. In Games 1 and 3 he wasn't even close. The key is the assists. Boston is making it extremely difficult on his with their ability to guard him one on one and not have to leave easy passing lanes open by doubling. Doncic is tired and not shooting well. Of course he could have a huge game, but everything we've seen so far in this series points to the under.

There's no denying Luka has struggled in the Finals, but he's only turned the ball over 5 times or more in six of Dallas' 20 playoff games. In this series he had 8 turnovers in Game 2, but only 7 in the other two games combined. I don't know if Dallas survives to fight another day, but I expect Luka to be better tonight.

PJ Washington was plus-2 over the past two games despite the Mavs losing by seven each time. He averaged 39.5 minutes in those contests. Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and Washington are the three mainstays whose minutes aren't in doubt, while Jason Kidd tries to figure out the remaining rotations. Washington has grabbed at least seven rebounds in each NBA Finals game while averaging 11 rebound chances.

I have a hard time believing we won't see more Derrick Jones in Game 4. He is the Mavericks best shot of defending Jason Tatum or Jaylen Brown, and none of these other experimental rotations are proving anymore efficient. Even when he played only 15 minutes last game, Jones eclipsed this prop. He has also gone over it in 14 of the last 15 games. I have no reason to believe he can't do this again, the SL model projects 4.7.

Dallas finds themselves on the verge of being swept tonight against the Celtics. It’s so tough to close out a team on their home court. For Dallas they need to avoid the third quarter offensive woes that have plagued them in consecutive games. The push has been there as in two straight fourth quarters they have mounted comebacks from a double digit deficit. This is their clean game tonight and an over correction in the markets on the spread. Take Dallas.

The total has went 3-0 to the under in the NBA Finals. Yet, for the first time in this series we saw both Kyrie Irving and Jayson Tatum go off in a big way, as they both scored above thirty points. Additionally, this is the first game in the series with a standard one day of rest in between games. Back to their normal playoff routines look for the offense on both sides to flow much better. Take the over.

In first halves Derrick White has been quiet in terms of scoring. Most of his production has come in the second half where he has put in double digit points in consecutive games. With that style of play leaves room for White to elevate or remain consistent in his rebounds and assists categories. He cleared this for the first time in game three with nine total. I expect a double digit number here in game four. Take his over.

We hit the over on this prop in Game 2, but missed it in Game 3. Jrue Holiday finished with four rebounds and five assists Wednesday, despite playing 42 minutes. Prior to that, he had posted at least 11 combined rebounds and assists in eight of his last nine games. I’m not shying away from taking this over again.

The Celtics are just the better team. They are better defensively with all of their starters being able to guard multiple positions. They move the ball better on offense and everyone can hit three-pointers. The Mavericks are playing too much isolation basketball on offense and Luka Doncic has been a sieve on defense, which the Celtics have exploited. I’ll take the point to buy a little cushion, but I think the Celtics execute the sweep.

Home-court/ice advantage means little in the NBA/NHL playoffs as I'm frankly stunned both the Mavericks and Oilers lost Game 3s at home and both facing sweeps. Think we all knew the Celtics were the better team, and I had them in six. But it would be human nature for them to let down a bit with so much wiggle room and possibility of clinching back at home. There have been only nine sweeps in Finals history. I have become less of a Luka Doncic fan watching him lazy on defense and crying to the refs. He has taken a lot of heat nationally so I'm presuming Luka goes bonkers tonight. The Mavs were succeeding getting to the basket, not stepback 3-pointers from 26 feet.

Maybe the 1975 Islanders will materialize and provide a roadmap to the 2024 Mavs on how to come back and win a series from an 0-3 deficit. Though considering that's never been done in the NBA playoffs, maybe the '75 Islanders should stay away. After all, lots of venom and vitriol that Luka Doncic and the team are getting from the media after Wednesday's loss. The Mavs did dig deep in the 4th Q to rally from 21 down. cutting the deficit to 1, but in the bigger picture of this often-unsightly series, it was another clear "under" result as were the first two games, and the "total" hasn't dropped much for Friday. Play Celtics-Mavs "Under"