For some reason everyone thinks the Wolves are some sure bet to win this game. This is way too big a line. The Dallas offense is far more reliable. Anthony Edwards still hasn’t had a truly efficient game. KAT has shot well one out of four games. Far more evidence in favor of Dallas to close what should be another close game at the end.

Edwards has beaten this number lately but before that? 11 straight games of 15 or less. He regresses tonight and might focus more on score.

Minnesota finally broke through with a win in this series. This game feels like Game 6 of the Denver series in which the Nuggets just laid down and got blown out. Minnesota rolls at home. See you in Dallas for Game 6.

Despite the fact Luka and Kyrie were both dreadful from the floor (33%), the Mavs only had 20 in the first quarter, and the game was tight late…the Mavs STILL hit 100. Kyrie should get 6-7 more points from the FT line, and the Mavs should get to 103+

Dereck Lively could return for Dallas, but even so the Timberwolves seem to have found their defensive mojo and are plenty capable of making this a series. They're 3-0 SU in elimination games this postseason. It's unlikely Minnesota will shoot as well as it did in Game 4. But the T-Wolves have room for improvement, anyway, if they cut down turnovers and make free throws. Look for Minnesota to benefit from an electric atmosphere as it wins and covers.

I sound like a broken record but this makes too much sense. If you are 6'9 playing 35+ minutes of basketball, you should get 4 rebounds. You just should. There should be plenty of long rebounds with the perimeter shooting of Dallas too. The Timberwolves know, and have made it clear, that rebounding needs to take more precedent to stay in this series. I expect McDaniels to make up for his rebounding the past two games.

This total is a point lower than game four. The first three games of the series went over when the total was in the range of 207/207.5. Now, we see a similar total again. This game should be another defensive battle especially since it’s yet another elimination game for Minnesota. The Timberwolves also shot 52.7% from the floor and 45.8% from beyond the arc, their best shooting performance of the series. There should be some regression for them, offensively, leading to a more grind it out type of game in the second half.

Role players usually perform better at home than on the road. During the regular season, Naz Reid shot 50.4% from the field at home, compared to 45.2% on the road. Although he only scored six points in Game 4, he had scored at least 14 points in each of the previous three games in this series. With his three-point shooting prowess and the home crowd behind him, I like this over for Reid.

The Mavericks couldn’t close out the sweep, losing Game 4 at home. They really missed Dereck Lively II (neck), who is being considered as a game-time decision for Game 5. He was present at shootaround Thursday morning, which is encouraging. Even with him out, the Timberwolves still only won by five points despite shooting 52.7% from the field and 45.8% from behind the arc. The Mavericks shot just 42.0% from the field, which was their lowest mark of the series. Expect the Mavericks to shoot better Thursday and cover this spread.

I've (mostly) unsuccessfully faded this exact combo line for AE throughout the series and outside of Game 2, Ant has made me pay, but alas here we are. This is undoubtedly the highest this Ant's RA line has ever been. While Ant has certainly proven he's capable of eclipsing this line, especially with the minutes he's playing, I do not believe his RA numbers are sustainable and I will continue to fade an inflated line.

"It's not a series yet," some pundits insist. Oh yes it is, we say, as maybe the T-wolves' doubters hadn't been watching how closely this series was being contested before Minny finally broke thru in Game 4. Remember, the T-wolves were in position to win the three games they lost, but finally got KAT (25 points) in a highly-productive state on Tuesday, which was the first time he and Anthony Edwards outscored (54-44) the Luka-Kyrie Mavs combo in this series. Further, Dallas also has to sweat out the status of key cog Dereck Lively II (strained neck), who sat out Game 4 and was missed, and note the Wolves are not going away, now 3-0 in elimination games the past two weeks. Play T-wolves

The Timberwolves beat Dallas in every possible category in Game 4 and they only won by five. They shot 53%, 46% from three, and took 25 shots at the free throw line as well as getting 40 rebounds and 23 assists. Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic didn't show up. Anthony Edwards did show up with 29 points on 11 of 25 shooting and Karl Anthony Towns finally shot well, 9 of 13, four of five on three-pointers, and 25 points. There's the game. Edwards was more assertive finally. The reason they lost the first three was because they didn't play well and when they played well they win. That's pretty simple. They play well this time at home. Timberwolves win.

Can't overthink this. Anthony Edwards has gone over this every single game this series, and by 2-3 assists in three of those games. Edwards is clocking in 40 minutes per game this series and I don't anticipate that changing. I think some better shooting from Conley and McDaniels can help this prop too.

Each game so far between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks has been down to the wire. That is not typical of a postseason series, and I expect game five to be the game that is not competitive. Minnesota limited PJ Washington, Luka Doncic, and Kyrie Irving all below thirty three percent shooting in game four. They’ll continue to have success on the defensive end, and look to end a 1-4 postseason stretch at home. Tail the Twolves.

The Mavs have proven they know how to pace themselves and hang around and win games, especially on the road in this postseason. Especially when they need them most. Young Wolves get tight at home and KAT shrinks and their foul trouble concerns me. Very naive at times. MIN 1-4 SU and ATS last 5 at home. 1-4 at home as a favorite of 3.5 or more this postseason. DAL 6-2 SU and ATS on road in playoffs, with 4 straight wins. Love what Mavs getting from bench lately, maybe Lively returns since no concussion diagnosed, and this is one Kyrie and Luka might just take over. Mavs play with a little more pace and urgency on road. Luka averaging 31-9-9 on road.