The Nuggets defense has been a big surprise, holding Miami to 93, 111, 94 and 95 points. The Miami defense has been good but not great holding Denver to 104, 108, 109 and 108. The pace for the first four games has been 91, 87, 91 and 89. As expected the Heat do not want to get into an uptempo game with the Nuggets. We have a slow pace, and the longer the series goes the defense has a bigger advantage each game. My model has this total at 203.5. Under is the top play.

Tonight could be the final time we get to ride Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 threes and if so salute, we've had a lot of fun. For anyone new, here's how it works. The number is always set at 1.5 and always plus money. Jokic has hit this in 11 of his 19 games this postseason so the profit has been excellent by trusting the process and if the Nuggets are to win tonight let's finish 12 of 20 for a strong margin and the friends we've made along the way. Best of luck tonight it's been a great run with you all!

I'm projecting a competitive start from the Heat in this elimination game. The Nuggets are clearly the better team, but Jimmy Butler is unlikely to go without a fight in this spot. At this point much of this comes down to the ability to make perimeter shots. The good news for Miami is the shot selection hasn't been the issue as ShotQuality suggests they're getting good looks. I also think we could see a slower start from the Nuggets with all the anticipation of closing out this series. Winning outright is certainly an uphill battle, but I'm confident Spoelstra will keep this one interesting early.

I would be shocked if Denver loses this game tonight, but if they do, it's likely because Jamal Murray has an off game. Murray has posted at least 10 assists in each game this series and he's posted double-digit rebounds twice in the last seven playoff games. We know the Nuggets point guard will get his points but I'm betting on 10+ assists once again and therefore hitting this prop.

Caleb Martin has not had the same impact in the NBA Finals that he has had over the course of the post-season. In fact, he is only averaging 6.8 points per game. A positive sign is that he has played higher minutes in both games three and four, and his shot attempts have increased significantly. Look for Martin to break through tonight in a crucial game five. Play his over.

An unsung player for the Denver Nuggets likely winning an NBA title has been Kentavious Caldwell Pope. His team first mentality has put him in line for a quiet series offensively. He has taken just five shots or less in three straight games. On a discount for his prop look for Pope to make the most of his minimal shot attempts. Take his over.

Every game in the finals Jamal Murray has had at least 10 assists. The Miami Heat seem to be alright with allowing Nikola Jokic score and Murray to assist instead of the other way around. I am betting Murray's assist over until I see the Heat change their strategy.

I'll be very surprised if Miami mails this one in and allows Game 5 to be a coronation for the Nuggets. This is a prideful and well-coached group that should give a supreme effort out of the gate. Getting essentially 2+ possessions on the line is attractive. Moreover, if the Heat shoot reasonably well from 3-point range, which I project them to do, then it should be a very competitive first half.

The Nuggets have won and covered nine of their last 10 against the Heat and I attribute most of that edge to better shooting and not turning the ball over. Just six Nuggets turnovers in Game 4. You have to play almost perfectly to beat the Nuggets, especially at home, and the Heat after an amazing playoff run haven’t stepped up and matched them in this series. They can’t stop Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Aaron Gordon, so why now in Denver? I laid the number with the Nuggets.

True story: I believed Miami had a strong chance in this series. So far, they have gone past the 100-point plateau only one time this series. They did prove they can win in Denver by handing the Nuggets their only home loss this postseason. My thinking is everyone believes the series ends tonight, so there will be heavy public money on Denver, so let’s take all these points and hope the Heat make 15 threes.

The Heat are struggling to find someone to help support Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Max Strus has shot 16.1 percent from the field in the series and Caleb Martin doesn’t look anything like the player that dominated the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Those two struggling has contributed to the Heat scoring 95 points or fewer in three of the four games. I think the Heat are going to have a hard time cracking 100 points again, so despite the total continuing to fall, I like the under.

While he doesn’t get a ton of scoring opportunities, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has played a key role for the Nuggets. He is a versatile defender and his ability to hit three-pointers helps with their floor spacing. With him averaging 34 minutes per game in this series, he has posted at least three rebounds in each game. Going back even further, Caldwell-Pope has at least three rebounds in nine of his last 10 games. Expect him to play a lot as the Nuggets look to close things out, giving him a good chance to reach the over on this modest number.

Caleb Martin has largely made a huge impact for the Heat in the postseason and was arguably their best player in the Eastern Conference Finals against Boston. He really struggled in the first two games of the finals and it appeared his minutes and spot in the rotation were at risk. However he has performed very well off the bench in back to back games and played over 30 minutes in each game. I think he will continue to make a big impact for the Heat who are playing with their backs against the wall.

Gabe Vincent has battled foul trouble and poor shooting the last two games. That contributed to Kyle Lowry playing at least 29 minutes and having at least five assists in both games. For the series, Lowry has dished out at least five assists in three of the four games. With the Heat’s season on the line, Lowry could again be looking at additional minutes, leaving him with a favorable opportunity to reach this over.

This has everything to do with the fourth quarter. With each Denver win this series, we have seen the total go under. They've had consistent control throughout those games and had the flexibility to take their foot off the gas in the third or fourth quarter. With an NBA title on the line, I don't see Michael Malone taking any chances. I expect the Nuggets to play hard throughout the fourth quarter, no matter the lead. And at the chance it is a tight game with Miami, that is all the more reason they will be playing hard. Our simulation makes this total 217. While we may not hit that number, I feel confident that either game script will allow us to hit 210.

It's been a disappointing finals for Michael Porter Jr. who came into the series averaging 14.6 PPG to go along with 8 rebounds and 1.8 APG. Both Porter's playing time and numbers have plummeted and fortunately for MPJ the Nuggets have still been able to take care of business versus the Heat. Porter had eclipsed this line in 12 of 15 playoff games prior to the finals while averaging over 23 PRA so we are getting a hefty discount on this combo line. I believe his struggles are largely mental rather than Miami trying to take him away. Considering the friendly number, Denver being up 3-1, and going back home there will be a lot less pressure on him to perform.

The Heat know that they can't simply lean on Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo and timely shooting to beat the Denver Nuggets. Other consistent scorers will need to emerge if Game 5 is going to be competitive and Caleb Martin feels like the most likely to jump out of the pack. Martin dealt with flu-like symptoms for the first two games of this series which limited his minutes, but he's now back up to 30+ minutes and he's getting enough shooting volume to tackle this points prop.

Heat point guard Gabe Vincent had a terrible two games in Miami, shooting 3 of 16 and scoring a total of nine points. He's still averaging 13 points for the entire postseason, and he should bounce back with at least 10 points in Game 5. In the first two games in Denver, Vincent went off for 19 and 23 points. That followed an Eastern Conference Finals in which Vincent averaged 15.8 points. We're getting a discount on his points prop now.

Everyone knows the series is over; the Nuggets are the bigger, better team. With the pressure off, I expect the Heat to have their second strong shooting game from 3-point range, enabling them to cover this massive spread. Over 22 playoff games, Miami has hit 38.6 percent from deep despite going cold in three of four Finals games. The Heat have acquitted themselves well in Denver, nearly covering Game 1 and winning Game 2. Take the points.