1 Expert Pick
Are the Oilers on upset alert in the Twin Cities? ...
Past Picks
Much of Montreal's recent run of good play can be attributed to above average goaltending and focus on defensive structure especially on the road. For Utah the scoring has largely dried up scoring just 10 goals in their last 5 games even though the underlying metrics suggest positive regression. Utah's problem however is they lack elite scoring talent and without leading scorer Dylan Guenther goals are tough to come by. I'm anticipating a Vejemelka vs Montembault goalie match-up as well and with those two my fair price is 5.5 over -120. Let's root for defense
This just flipped to 6.5 at DraftKings or I had no intention of playing it. Utah is down leading goalscorer and third-leading overall scorer Dylan Guenther (16G, 18A), while Montreal's Emil Heineman (10G, 7A) was in a car accident and will sit out and so might blueliner Alex Newhook (7G, 2A). Utah goalie Karel Vejmelka has a 2.25 GAA in four starts this month. The Under is 5-0 in Utah's past five at home -- Montreal has never played in Salt Lake City. The Under is 4-2 in the Habs' past six overall. I'm OK with either Montreal goaltender ...
Vancouver has been grinding out results of late playing a lot of games without their full complement of difference makers. However with Petterson, Hughes, and Miller all going full speed they put together an impressive lock down effort Saturday vs Toronton. There's better than a 50/50 shot they also get Filip Horonek and his 23+ minutes a night back vs Winnipeg providing an instant upgrade on the blue line. Winnipeg's point total is nothing to scoff at but in my opinion they're overvalued in the betting market on a nightly basis. This is too generous a price to pass up on a road dog that's starting to trend in a better direction even if there's nothing fun in fading Connor Helleybuck.
Tuesday is the second of a B2B for Calgary and with Dustin Wolf starting Monday in net in Chicago, that should mean Dan Vladar for the tougher game in St. Louis. He has lost four straight outings, allowing 17 combined goals, and has just three wins in 10 total road starts with a 3.07 GAA. Calgary lost one of its top forwards recently, Connor Zary (10G, 12A), for an indefinite period.
Price is always the great equalizer when betting sports; especially when the ML is involved. The Isles have put together a 3 game winning streak knocking off Boston, Vegas, and Utah in succession. The common theme? They won all three of those as a dog. Tonight is a role reversal with back-up netminder Marcus Hogberg in net making just his third start of the season. Ottawa counters with Leevi Merilainen who has turned aside 104 of the last 111 shots he's faced and stabilized the position with Linus Ullmark's injury. I still grade out Ottawa as a better power rated team making them a short -109 favorite here meaning anything at +100 or better is worth a bet.
Interesting decision by the Panthers to use No. 1 goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky in a much easier game Monday in Philadelphia than for this potential Eastern Conference Finals preview in New Jersey on Tuesday. I was prepared to play Flyers +1.5 tonight assuming it would be Spencer Knight for Florida, but he'll go Tuesday so we just fade him then. Knight has a 3.39 GAA and .871 SV on the road, both significantly worse than his home numbers. Top Cats blueliner Aaron Ekblad was out again Monday and already has been ruled out Tuesday, and obviously another player or two could get injured against the Flyers.
Not the worst idea, perhaps, to ride this seven-game win streak for the Red Wings into Little Caesars tonight. This ascent started shortly after Todd McLellan took over behind the bench and is consistent with past surges we have seen in the NHL after coaching changes. Detroit has scored 31 goals across the win streak, with C Dylan Larkin in particular having tapped a rich vein of form, scoring five goals in as many outings this month. Note McLellan is giving the start in goal to Ville Husso, in the nets for the first time in a month. Meanwhile, the Sharks are slumping again on offense, scoring just four goals across their current three-game skid. Play Red Wings on Puck Line
Edmonton is the rightful Stanley Cup favorite at most books right now. It should come as no surprise the Oilers also take money in the betting market most nights for that reason and it makes sense when you see they're the best team in the league generating expected goals across all situations and suppressing them in their last five. The Kings thrive in low event hockey and are built to slow down more offensive minded sides. For the season the Kings rank 1st in the league in expected goals against across all situations and are elite in most defensive metrics. As the Oilers take money the Kings check boxes for me as a bet worth making at this price.
The Kings seem to give the Oilers more trouble than anyone as these clubs know each other so well, and we probably see them meeting in the playoffs again, but we don't turn down this price on Edmonton at home. It's also Connor McDavid's birthday Monday ("we goin Sizzler! we goin Sizzler!") if you needed any additional reason to play one of his props. He finished with the third-most points in league history before his 28th bday behind the two guys you'd probably expect: Wayne Gretzky and Reggie Dunlop ... err Mario Lemieux.
The Kings took a 4-3 OT verdict vs. Edmonton Dec. 28 at Crypto.com, catapulting into a current 5-1 stretch. Remember, however, the first four of those wins came at home, where LA has been practically unbeatable this season (14-2-1). On the road, LA has won just 10 of 23, and one of its last four, including Saturday's 2-1 loss at Calgary, the latest in a stretch of low-scoring games (only 7 regulation goals for Kings their last four). Meanwhile, the Oilers have also won five of six, but with some style, scoring three or four goals in each of those six. Note GK Start Skinner is 8-3-0 in his last 11 starts (also .914 saves in January). Play Oilers on Puck Line
Do I like this as much as the +2.5 yesterday on Chicago at home (cashed)? Nope, but it still has to be played. Anaheim isn't that bad, and Carolina is dealing with a few injuries. I am tempted to play something on the Ducks +400 simply as that's an absurd number in a sport like this.
Seattle looked good Saturday in a 6-2 victory in Buffalo to snap a four-game skid but that was with Joey Daccord finally back in net from injury. The Kraken's drop-off from No. 1 (Daccord) to No. 2 goaltender might be as big as any team in the NHL's this season as Philipp Grubauer (5-13-1, 3.62 GAA, .875 SV) has been awful. Detroit has won six straight and looks like what many were expecting since the coaching change.
The Kraken snapped a four-game skid on Saturday at Buffalo, but no time to rest, now off to Detroit on a quick 24-hour turnaround, where a sizzling Red Wings side on a six-game win streak awaits. After Joey Daccord got the win in goal on Saturday, Dan Bylsma goes to Philipp Grubauer (5-13-1), who has struggled all season and has losses in his four January starts, posting subpar numbers (3.91 GAA & .861 saves). Meanwhile Detroit has caught fire for Todd McLellan, hired December 26, but now on a six-game heater since losing his first game in charge vs. the Leafs. Note Patrick Kane making real contributions, with 8 points (2 goals, 6 assists) across the past four games. Play Red Wings on Puck Line
Solid number considering Columbus' road mark and that star forward Sean Monahan is still out (among a few others). I'm also moderately confident that Jackets No. 1 netminder Elvis Merzlikins will get a game off because he has played a season-high five straight. Am fine if he plays, though. I have many Elvis jokes and I went to school in Kalamazoo, which is the alleged last "live" sighting of Elvis and Tupac apparently playing Euchre together -- I am calling out anyone to include me in any Euchre events, as I so miss that and I am great at it (or was anyways). Practically paid my way through college in Euchre (and darts).