Betting markets are all about efficiency and win streaks often distort how teams are priced. Enter the St Louis Blues winners of 11 straight fresh off back to back OT wins and victorious in four straight 1 goal games. This however is all about price (as it should be) and just last Saturday the Blues beat Colorado 2-1 as +180 underdogs. Change in venue explains part of the price adjustment but perception plays a role. Colorado is one of a few teams with better underlying numbers than the Blues since the 4 nations break..they get revenge for last Saturday's 2-1 loss at a discounted road price

The La Kings are a pain to play against. They defend tenaciously turning every game into a rock fight. I've waited all day for this number to drift out and we finally have a strike point. The Kings don't lose at home where they're now 32-4 on the ML but when they take things on the road they're just 14-24. Don't tell that to the betting market that's over valued them on the road all year. This marks just their 4th game away from home since March 9th in those 3 games they've scored 4 total goals (3 against the Hawks). Utah is going to run out of real estate to make a playoff push but they're still fighting and make a very live dog.

Florida has owned the Toronto Maple Leafs in recent meetings. There's no way to sugarcoat that the Panthers have now won 4 of 6 regular season meetings, holding the Leafs to 2 goals or less in 5 of those games. Here's the issue; Florida isn't clicking right now and is grinding to the end of the regular season without Matthew Tkachuk and Aaron Ekblad. Florida is playing their 3rd game in 4 days allowing for the Leafs to have a decided rest edge. Yes, this game is massive for both sides but the price here is short for me on the home team after Panthers money hit the market earlier today.

Let's hit the rewind button to Saturday; Minnesota closed a -120 favorite against the Devils who entered that game on the 2nd of a back to back. New Jersey played on their front foot the night after being shut out by Winnipeg and Minnesota couldn't match. Tonight the venue changes and the Wild find themselves in a much more comfortable road underdog role with an edge in net. New Jersey plays their 4th game in 6 days before a 5 day break creates a good situational edge for the Wild. I see value here on the Wild anything +117 or better so I'm happy to back the road dog.

The Minnesota Wild are a team currently on my sell list. Coach Hynes' bunch has dealt with a rash of injuries and it's starting to show in the team's underlying metrics. Since the 4 nations break the Wild are just 24th in expected goals generated across all situations. The Rangers' current form isn't better but this is a team that generates offense at a higher rate and leans into elite goaltending on the defensive end. New York's four game skid has come at the hands of teams that can generate offense at a high rate, something the Wild can't do so we get an opportunity to back a desperate team in a good buy low spot tonight

Colorado is humming right now; scoring four goals or more in every game of their current home stand. The return of Val Nichuskin has buoyed the team but lost in their offensive resurgence is how good they've been on defense. The Avs are holding opponents to 2.48 expected goals a game since the 4Nations break. Colorado gets an inferior opponent tonight on the first leg of a back to back and we expect it to be workmanlike against a Blackhawks side lacking punch. Spencer Knight vs Scott Wedgewood is the expected match-up in net and my projected total is 6 flat offering us some upside at current market prices

The Isles are currently a team stuck in NHL purgatory; a longshot to make the postseason with key players on expiring contracts. Put all that aside for tonight when you play a rival less than a week after losing 5-1 in your own barn. Isles will have some changes to their lineup tonight but this bet is more about fading a Rangers team playing 3rd game in 4 days with what projects as an AHL caliber blue line. Since returning from the 4 nations break, NYR grade out as a bottom five team in xG differential. Igor Shesterkin is the great eraser for NYR in back but I fully expect his Isles counterpart Ilya Sorokin to match him after being pulled in the last meeting

Let's be honest; the betting market can't fade Minnesota hard enough each night the Wild lace up their skates. However it's not the side we're after tonight rather the total with both Central division teams starting their top option in net. Minnesota has dealt with a rash of injuries up front meaning their path to success is low event hockey. Colorado did get Val Nichuskin back last game which helps firepower but tonight three goals should be enough to get the win. The Wild need to turn this into a rock fight and Colorado should be happy to oblige in a workmanlike Friday performance. Under is our angle in Denver tonight

Colorado played one of the weekend's more exciting game against the Rangers on Sunday where there was no shortage of offense. Unfortunately for the Avs this is still a team struggling to generate offense at 5 on 5 with a power play now mired in a 2 for 24 funk their last 10 games. Thankfully for our under the Isles penalty kill has shown signs of life recently contributing to a lower scoring brand of hockey. Yes, the Isles are down Noah Dobson and Ryan Pulock on the blue line but I expect them to place added emphasis on defensive responsibilities now. My numbers make this total a shade more than 5.5 so with Sorokin vs Blackwood confirmed an under is in store for us

Ottawa has played a lot of hockey lately and find themselves in a brutal spot today against a rested Utah team. Ottawa not only played last night against their bitter rival in Toronto but is now going to be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, 6th game in 9 nights, and 7th game in 11...did I mention today is a matinee too? This Ottawa team has experienced a renaissance under Travis Greene and are a legitimate playoff threat. However I expect the tank to be running on E today and I'm willing to back a Utah team that's playing decent hockey that can lean into a goaltending advantage with a major rest edge here. Live dog alert in the Canadian capital.

Colorado completed a blockbuster deal on Friday trading their leading goal scorer Mikko Raantanen to Carolina as part of a 3 way deal that returns Martin Necas from the Hurricanes. There's a chance Necas joins the Avs in time for a matinee tomorrow but doesn't appear likely. Colorado has struggled to score at 5 on 5 already this season and playing 1 game without 25 goals an 69 points against a defensive minded Bruins team (albeit leaky) is a number we just can't pass up here. I expected the Avalanche to go off in the -115 range before Saturday puck drop.

Both the Rangers and Flyers understand the value of securing every single point in their race to stay in the playoff mix. Since returning from injury Igor Shesterkin has been magnificent; producing back to back shutouts. His most likely opposition tonight Samuel Ersson has quietly regained his form behind a Flyers defensive structure suppressing expected goals at a top 6 rate all season. I expect a tight checking defensive minded game tonight; for those that don't have access to a juiced 6 here going under 5.5 (+105) is a damn fine bet as well

Could we be seeing a Stanley Cup Final preview tonight in Dallas? I don't think so but it doesn't change the Star power (pun intended) on display here. Carolina is on the 2nd of a back to back, needing OT to sneak by Chicago while Dallas enters with a rest advantage. Carolina is top 5 in the league in expected goals against over their L5 across all situations. Both teams are killing penalties at an elite level which also bodes well for keeping goals off the scoreboard. Combine that with the continued absence of Stars' leading goal scorer Roope Hintz and we have a lot of key factors lining up for a lower scoring game tonight

For only the 2nd time since December 17th the Rangers face an opponent that's not currently in playoff position. Since Igor Shesterkin has returned from injury, one of the league's best netminders has flashed allowing 6 goals across 3 games leading his team to five of a possible 6 points. As I mentioned earlier this week, I'm down on Utah overall and believe their home ice and current talent mix is being over valued. I wanted to fade the Rangers regularly about a month ago but now they're a team squarely on my buy side as they turn their season around so I'll bite tonight at this modest price.

Much of Montreal's recent run of good play can be attributed to above average goaltending and focus on defensive structure especially on the road. For Utah the scoring has largely dried up scoring just 10 goals in their last 5 games even though the underlying metrics suggest positive regression. Utah's problem however is they lack elite scoring talent and without leading scorer Dylan Guenther goals are tough to come by. I'm anticipating a Vejemelka vs Montembault goalie match-up as well and with those two my fair price is 5.5 over -120. Let's root for defense