Matt's Picks (3 Live)
Columbus likely will start its backup goalie in Ottawa. ...
Matt's Past Picks
I'm about the most homer guy in sports betting, and by that I mean not backing teams I like personally but simply because they are at home. Just think it makes a massive difference. Look at the Kings as a prime example. They are nearly invincible in LA at 26-3-4 but four games under .500 away. Two Kings rotation forwards in Alex Turcotte (23 points) and Tanner Jeannot (13 points) are in doubt for Thursday. Colorado has won 10 straight at home, the longest such streak in the league this season, and beat L.A. 4-2 in Denver in the lone meeting so far this campaign.
Utah is solid but not really in a playoff chase, so this seems a fair price on the Bolts at home. They are battling for a division title and home ice for at least two rounds, so no nights off. Tampa Bay also is 25-8-2 at home, so I feel like we at worst push ... but it's the NHL. Chance for some near immediate payback as well after the Bolts lost 6-4 in Salt Lake City last Saturday. That was with Brandon Halverson in net for the Lightning in his NHL debut, and I barely heard of that guy. Bit of a difference tonight with future HOFer Andrei Vasilevskiy -- at least it should be him.
Huge game for both as they chase a wild-card spot. The Canucks have been in the New York City area, which can be distracting to say the least, since last Friday on this long road trip so probably itching to get to the next stop. Kevin Lankinen is the probable goaltender, and he has lost five of seven. The Nucks are again down forwards Filip Chytil (26 points), Nils Hoglander (21 points) and Elias Pettersson (45 points). New York's Ilya Sorokin has had a strong March at 6-2-2 with a 2.58 GAA and he's the main reason for this play. The Isles have had at least a point in seven straight home games and also won in Vancouver early this season.
This is simply backing a home team that is in a playoff chase against a road team that isn't. It's the end of a four-game trip for the Kraken, who have allowed nine goals in losing the past two. Top forward Chandler Stephenson (48 points) is likely out again Tuesday. Calgary has gotten right back into the West WC race on a three-game winning streak -- and those were away. Should be top netminder Dustin Wolf on Tuesday, and he has a 2.24 GAA and three shutouts at home this season.
Vegas should be favored but this is a pretty fair number at +1.5 on the Wild even in the second of a B2B (we cashed fading them last night in Dallas) as the Knights are still without No. 1 blueliner Shea Theodore, and top forward Tomas Hertl (69 points, 23 on power play) didn't make the trip. Vegas has a lot more wiggle room in terms of the playoffs, whereas Minnesota can't take a night off. The Wild are T-3rd in the NHL in points (30) and fourth in wins (13) all-time against Vegas. All we want is a point.
Minnesota has won three straight but all at home and hasn't played away since a 3-1 loss in Vancouver on March 7. This is the front of a B2B and No. 1 netminder Filip Gustavsson has played a ton of hockey so we might get No. 2 Marc-Andre Fleury tonight. The Wild are still without a couple of their top forwards to due injury as well. The Stars have earned points in their last 12 games played against the Wild. Forward Matt Duchene has 14 points (5-9—14) in his last 11 games against Minnesota.
This will go up almost surely a fair amount by puck drop. Vancouver has a really talented overall roster, but the goaltending has been awful with No. 1 Thatcher Demko only getting into 17 games this season due to injury. Supposedly he might be close to a return but also hasn't played in six weeks. Probably Kevin Lankinen, then, and he's fading fast with a heavy workload in losing five of six. In addition, top-six forwards Elias Pettersson (52 points), Filip Chytil (26 points when including time with NY) and Nils Hoglander (21 points) are all expected out. This will matter a bit more to New Jersey netminder Jacob Markstrom, who spent 2013-20 with the Canucks and shut them out early this season.
Carolina is among the Stanley Cup favorites but is below .500 away and playing the second of a B2B after getting pounded by LA on Saturday -- which we cashed. We faded the Canes because a handful of top guys were out and then another one, Seth Jarvis (52 points), left early injured and didn't make it back so decent chance he's out Sunday. It's also the end of a four-game trip for Carolina.
Both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are out for the Oilers on Saturday and, you know, they are kinda good/important. Seattle may be without one of its best offensive guys in Chandler Stephenson (48 points) after leaving the Kraken's last game injured. If this weren't in Edmonton, I'd be all over Seattle but it doesn't really have anything to play for, especially away, so we'll try the total.
Possibly the highest that BetRivers will go while still offering -1. Obviously you can manipulate the puckline at your books, but we are rather limited. The Wings are down a few rotational guys led by blueliner Erik Gustafsson (18 points). Per usual, Vegas is one of the best home teams in the league. If I was a betting man -- oh yeah, I am -- this probably pushes, but I doubt loses so I don't see any downside. I tend to live/bet in quadrants (well, quadrant is four and this is three, but I hate geometry): Get better/stay the same/get worse. Or win/push/lose. If one scenario hits two of those three, that's my decision. I think at worst we get the win/push here.
Colorado is obviously the better team but this feels like a pretty solid number on the Habs at home as they are pretty good and need every single point possible battling for a WC spot (obviously if they get a point here, we cash) -- and 19-15 ATS at Bell Centre. Possible trap spot for Colorado at the end of a three-game trip through Canada. I've been to Canada several times and definitely wanted to leave after a while. Nothing whatsoever against the country as I truly love it there, such nice people, but I get addicted to poutine and saying "eh" after about 72 hours up yonder so need to leave before I become Canadian severed/Severance so to speak. It's my Cold Harbor.
Apologies for slightly late play, but this was an "only if" type deal regarding some Carolina injuries/illnesses, and Shayne Gostisbehere (38 points), Andrei Svechnikov (43 points) and Jordan Staal (33 points) are all apparently out. The Kings have been the best home team in the league so maybe it wouldn't have mattered, but Carolina is too good to bother otherwise.