This will be the Sabres' third game in four days. Buffalo has defeated the Senators in both meetings this season, outscoring Ottawa 9-1 despite being outshot in both games, 73-55. Ottawa ranks fourth in face-off win percentage, while Buffalo ranks 25th. The Senators have better special teams and are the more disciplined squad. Buffalo has committed the most penalty minutes this season. The Sabres had an emotional 5-2 victory over the Jets despite being outshot 36-17 on Sunday. Buffalo has a record of 4-7 when scoring five or more goals this calendar year. I like the road team in this spot.

The Blackhawks rank 32nd in shot share over the last 10 games and have allowed the third-most shots to wingers in that span. They are ranked 30th in shots allowed per game. Jordan Kyrou has generated at least 10 shot attempts in four consecutive games against the Blackhawks, totaling 22 shots on goal in that span. He has hit over 2.5 shots in 65% of home games this season. I have this line closer to -175.

Tage Thompson has been a prolific scorer this season, with 34 goals in 59 games, averaging 0.58 goals per game. In his last 10 games, Thompson has scored seven goals, including two multi-goal games. Thompson's shooting percentage this season is an impressive 18.28%, significantly higher than his career average. With five power-play goals this season, Thompson poses a significant threat during man-advantage situations, which could be crucial against Minnesota's defense. The Wild are ranked 27th in shots allowed per game and 30th in penalty kill percentage, the worst rankings of any winning team.

The Montreal Canadiens have won seven of their last 10 games despite getting outshot in seven of those games, including three in a row, 88-67. Ottawa has won six in a row while outshooting five teams. The Senators are ranked 15th in shots against and have a +82 shot differential. Montreal is ranked 23rd in shots against and owns a -209 shot differential. Ottawa is ranked 13th (+2.6%) in scoring changes, while Montreal is ranked 26th (-4.4%). The Senators are ranked 17th in xGD (expected goal differential), while the Canadiens are ranked 28th. I like Ottawa playing with double revenge against bitter rival Canadiens, who just defeated the Stanley Cup Champions on Saturday. Since January 1, NHL teams are 2-8 after defeating Florida.

The LA Kings are ranked first in shots against and have a +150 shot differential. The Minnesota Wild are ranked 27th in shots against with a -155 shot differential; both are the worst among all winning teams. LA ranks 10th (+2.9%) in scoring chances, while Minnesota is ranked 27th (-5.2%). The Kings are ranked 15th in Face-off win percentage while Minnesota is ranked 28th. LA is ranked second in xGD (expected goal differential), while Minnesota is ranked 21st. The Kings are 2-0 vs. the Wild this season while outshooting them in both games, 62-47. Minnesota hasn’t been at full strength with two key players remaining out.

Jason Robertson has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in seven of his last ten games despite experiencing an 0-2 run. Over his last 25 games, he has exceeded this mark 64% of the time and has not gone more than three consecutive games without logging at least three shots on goal. He is currently 2-0 on this prop against Winnipeg this season. This line should be closer to -130.

The Edmonton Oilers are ranked first in shots on goal and ninth in shots allowed per game. They own the third-best shot differential at +300. The Oilers have same-season revenge from a 3-0 loss in Edmonton despite outshooting New Jersey 31-16. Edmonton has been one of the best teams in this role. Jack Hughes is a significant loss against a team like Edmonton. The Oilers are ranked 10th in Face-off percentage, while New Jersey is ranked 21st. They have been steadily declining without Hughes, who excels in Face-offs. Edmonton is 10-6 when playing with two days of rest. I like the road team.

The Vancouver Canucks are one point behind Calgary for the final wild-card spot in the West. The Canucks will play with double revenge. Last December, Minnesota won 3-2 in OT as Kirill Kaprizov tallied the winner. In a February 2024 matchup, the Wild won 10-7, with Joel Eriksson Ek and Kaprizov responsible for six of the 10 goals. They are both OUT for this game. The Wild have won two straight despite getting outshot in both games, 64-42. Vancouver has gone 4-3 without Quinn Hughes, and there is a chance he'll be back for this game. Minnesota is ranked 27th in shots against and owns a -164 shot differential. Kevin Lankinen is 8-2 with a 2.43 GAA on Friday's last three seasons.

The Edmonton Oilers have been outscored 17-7 and outshot 101-67 in three games since returning to play after the break. They have lost a season-high four consecutive games. Last season, the Oilers went 2-0 after losing four games in a row. Last year, Florida defeated Edmonton in the Stanley Cup Finals, and then they beat them 6-5 in Edmonton last December. The Panthers allowed only 19 shots on goal while defeating the Predators on Tuesday. A strong system is to fade teams that allow less than 20 shots if they play against a winning team with one or fewer days of rest. I like the road team in this spot!

This will be the Predators’ third game in four days, and they are 1-1 since the break despite getting outshot in both games, 68-46. Nashville is ranked 26th in shots against per game and has a +13 shot differential. The Florida Panthers are ranked 10th in shots against and own a +271 shot differential. Florida is 10-3 after a loss and 5-2 when playing with two days of rest since December. In November, the Panthers defeated Nashville 6-2 and outshot them 34-18 as -210 home chalk. Matthew Tkachuk is OUT. However, the Florida Panthers have a lot of depth. I like the road team in this spot.

The Carolina Hurricanes are currently ranked second in shots allowed and have the top spot in shot differential with an impressive +359 mark. In contrast, the Winnipeg Jets are ranked 21st in shots allowed, the third worst among all winning teams, and carry a +18 shot differential. Carolina ranks fourth in face-off win percentage at 52.4%, while Winnipeg ranks 22nd at 49.5%. Carolina is ranked 18th in strength of schedule, while Winnipeg is ranked 31st. The Hurricanes are 15-5 following a loss this season. The Jets have not won more than five consecutive games since November. They have never faced Frederik Anderson, who has a 2.55 GAA and a .916 save percentage in his 12-year career. I like the road team in this spot.

This will be the Minnesota Wild's third road game in four days. They are ranked 27th in shots allowed (the worst mark of any winning team) and have a -83 shot differential. Ottawa is ranked 10th in shots allowed and has a +85 shot differential. The Senators are ranked 7th in Face-off win percentage, while Minnesota is ranked 27th. Additionally, the Wild are ranked 25th in strength of schedule, while the Senators are ranked 11th. I'm looking to bet against Minnesota while supporting Ottawa in most spots for the remainder of the regular season.

The Colorado Avalanche started the season with a record of 0-4. One of those losses was a 6-2 home defeat against the Islanders. Martin Necas has recorded 57 points in 52 games and was part of the trade involving Mikko Rantanen, highlighting his skills as a player. The Islanders have not defeated Colorado in back-to-back meetings since 2019-20. The Avalanche are ranked 7th in shot differential (+130), while the Islanders are +20 this season. Colorado has three players ranked in the top 12 in points, while the Islanders have none. New York has won four straight despite getting out-shot in three games. The Islanders are ranked last in PP% and PK%. The Avs have played the 5th toughest schedule, while the Islanders are ranked 20th.

This will be the Red Wings' third road game in four days. They are ranked 24th in shots allowed per game and have a -150 shot differential, which is the fourth worst in hockey. The Flyers are ranked 4th in shots allowed and own a +48 shot differential. Philadelphia has played with the 13th most demanding schedule, while Philadelphia is ranked 32nd in strength of schedule. The host has won 9 of the past 10 meetings. I like the home team at -140 or less.

The Dallas Stars are facing a challenging schedule after playing five road games, followed by one home game, and now traveling again for a day game at high altitude. This will be the Stars' seventh game in 11 days. Additionally, the Stars eliminated Colorado from the playoffs last year and won their only meeting 5-3 despite being outshot 32-24 back in November. Mason Marchment, Tyler Seguin, and Roope Hintz scored four of the five goals, including an empty-net goal. However, Marchment and Seguin will not play, and Hintz is questionable. The Avalanche are expected to experience positive regression after going 0-for-16 on the power play in their last six games. Colorado should be extra motivated after blowing a 3-0 lead vs. Edmonton on Thursday.