


NBA
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Understanding Public and Money
Houston struggled to produce offense after Tank Dell went down with a brutal injury last week. I like Metchie to step up in his place. Metchie was sidelined briefly with a shoulder issue, but was a full participant in Monday’s practice. The Ravens are one of the league’s best run defenses, so I expect the Texans to go pass-happy. As +6.5 underdogs, Houston may be trailing in this game. Metchie will have his opportunities if the Texans are playing from behind.
The Texans are down safeties Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre. That should open things up for Mark Andrews in the middle of the field. Baltimore’s wideout room is banged up so look for Andrews to record at least 40 receiving yards.
Joe Mixon likely will struggle on the ground but look for the Texans to throw it to him. Ravens linebackers have been very vulnerable in coverage. I’m expecting the Texans to be playing from behind, which also should help.
There's plenty at stake for both teams as the Ravens continue their late surge toward a division title. The Texans already have the AFC South wrapped up but need to adjust again to their limited offensive personnel following the injury to Tank Dell. The full touchdown is plenty of value for a playoff-bound and motivated home underdog.
Sharps have ballooned this spread, and we’re on the wrong side of the shift. Still, the Ravens are superior, particularly with Tank Dell – a true difference maker for C.J. Stroud – sidelined for the Texans. While the defensive effort has lacked for Baltimore this season, the secondary has stepped up of late. Unlike Houston, which has basically locked up the No. 4 seed, Baltimore still needs to win to clinch a playoff spot and has eyes on taking the AFC North. Also benefitting the Ravens are a more experienced coach and better running game given the short rest with a rare Wednesday game. If you are wary at -6 or you want extra action, a Christmas teaser with the Chiefs through +4 plays.
Justice Hill is out with a concussion - a significant loss for the Ravens in the 2-min, screen game and pass protection. Maybe Keaton Mitchell is active but he is coming back from major injury and they don't trust the rookie behind Henry. With 10 days off after this, I see Henry getting 40-plus reps again and 3-5 targets depending on game flow. Looked quite able in this role vs a very good Steelers D on Sat when Hill went down.
I will be so irked if Derrick Henry rushes 18 times for 90 yards without a TD. Why? Because I nearly played Over 17.5 carries and/or Over 89.5 rush yards. But I think this has some blowout potential with Houston really having little to play for. So I'm not 100 percent sure Henry is in there all game. Thus, let's just go this route. Honestly seems a bit cheap even though DH hasn't scored in four straight games (probably why under -200 when it sure wasn't a few weeks ago). And why let Lamar Jackson take more hits than needed near the goal line in his 3rd game in 11 days?
In recent weeks, the Texans have lost three of their five best run defenders (linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair to suspension, and safeties Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward to IR). Starting defensive tackle Folorunso Fatukasi (ankle) will miss his second straight game. Even on a short week, I expect the Ravens to lean heavily on Derrick Henry. With regular backup Justice Hill out with a concussion, coach John Harbaugh might not trust Keaton Mitchell and Rasheen Ali with more than a couple carries.
The Ravens' pass defense was the league's worst over the first half of the season, but it's much improved after they benched safety Marcus Williams and let Kyle Hamilton roam the back end. C.J. Stroud just lost Tank Dell, plus a couple key offensive linemen, and Houston's offense looked broken in the second half at K.C. Look for Stroud to stay Under this passing yards total for the ninth time in his last 11 games.
The Ravens simply have more on the line in this Christmas Day matchup. The Texans know they are likely destined for the No. 4 seed in the AFC, while the Ravens are playing to keep pace in the AFC North race. Baltimore was dominant in its recent win over the Steelers, while Houston just lost another weapon when Tank Dell went down in Week 16. The Ravens are playing much better football than the Texans right now, and I expect them to go into Houston and win by 7+ on Wednesday.
Russell Wilson just went 16/17 for 138 yards and a TD throwing to the middle of the field vs the Ravens, one of worst teams defending passings between the hash marks in the NFL. Jaylen Warren just caught all 5 targets for 44 yards and should have seen more. Mixon might have more receiving yards than rushing yards. Texans have to lean into screen game. Roquan Smith and Malik Harrison are very vulnerable in coverage. Mixon has at least 23 receiving yards in all 5 home games this season.
Joe Mixon has reached 100 rushing yards seven times this season, but this is an awful spot for him to have a big day. He's been under 60 yards in four of his last six games and averaged less than two yards per carry three times in that stretch. The Texans could be down both Shaq Mason and Juice Scruggs on the offensive line as well, making it more difficult to block against the league's No. 1 rushing defense. The Texans were 5-2 in those 100-yard games, but this game script figures to work against Mixon with the Texans big underdogs. I could also see him getting pulled in the second half to stay fresh for the playoffs if Houston is losing. Fade Mixon here.
This is a rematch of a divisional-round game last year where Houston had just 213 yards of offense while missing Tank Dell and scored three offensive points. Baltimore's defense isn't as imposing as last year's unit, but the Ravens haven't allowed more than 315 yards in a game since Week 10 after giving up five 400-yard games to that point. I don't see much potential for a high Houston point total here. We also have less to worry about in garbage time as if the Texans are down big I think they pack it in, keep the rest of the key starters healthy and get ready for the playoffs as the 4 seed.
The Baltimore Ravens have scored 34 or more points the last two games. They're now 10-5 on the season but more importantly they're 12-3 on the season to the over. This team gets over the total because they move the ball and score as the No. 1 offense in the NFL. They average a league-best seven yards per play. They score 30 points per game which ranks third in the NFL. The Texans don't want to play that style but they're going to have to. Ravens get this game over the total. Merry Christmas to all.
Lamar Jackson loves throwing to Andrews more than anyone else. He's caught a TD in 4 straight games and 8 of the last 10. Andrews has 5 TDs in his last 5 road games. Ravens balanced passing attack makes it so tough to clamp down on any one target. But Andrews will always get his looks in the RZ above anyone else. Ravens all-time TD leader has caught almost all of them from Lamar.
The Ravens have one deep threat to worry about; they won't let Collins beat them with Tank Dell out. CJ Stroud is terrible vs Cover-2 and Ravens excel at it and keeping everything in front of them since moving Kyle Hamilton off the line of scrimmage and pairing him with Ar'Darius Washington at safety. Since Week 11 Ravens allow 4 completions over 25 yards, tied for fewest in the NFL. Stroud will be going with short passes in the middle of the field. Heavy dose of zone looks and Marlon Humphrey having an All Pro season to shadow him. Texans TEs don't stretch field. Taking away Collins will be priority.
The real MVP will put on another show in a single-game window. The Texans D is very good in many regards, but has allowed 28 passing TDs, tied for most in the NFL. Lamar will pick them apart short and deep and spread ball around to 8 or more pass catchers; tough to defend. Lamar has hit this in 4 straight games and 8 of 9 and 5 of the last 6 road games. I will be playing this 2.5 and above in alt markets.
The Ravens are back in the hunt for the AFC North crown, while the Texans don't have much to play for aside from staying healthy over the last two weeks. A win in this game could put them in the running for the 3 seed, but I'm not sure how motivated they'll be in this spot after losing Tank Dell, which lowers the ceiling for an already struggling offense. Don't expect much from Joe Mixon in this matchup, while Baltimore shook off its Pittsburgh demons to score 30+ for the ninth time in 12 games. We should expect at least high 20s from the Ravens in this game, while I believe the Texans will struggle to even get to 20.
The Texans are out of their weight class here. They've been struggling with the Jags and Titans, they have one of the most second-half offenses in the NFL and they can't beat zone coverage and Joe Mixon can only do so much. BAL driving for a division title vs a team they destroyed in the playoffs last year. BAL 6-3-1 ATS outside the AFCN and Lamar is 9-2 ATS in last 11 times as a road favorite of 1-4 points, covering 7 of last 8. Ravens have too much balance on offense. Ravens have a top 5 defense since Week 11. HOU just 3-4 ATS at home.
Best prop picks are generated from a combination of Sportsline's projection, analysis of the opposing team, and the bets value based on the current odds.