I certainly lean that Drew Lock throws a pick in Atlanta but can't turn down this terrific price on No as the Falcons only have nine INTs all year and it's not like Lock is a rookie in his first outing like his opposing QB. Lock is returning after missing Week 15 with a heel injury so maybe that is reaggravated early, and he leaves and then I can ignore this otherwise distasteful matchup.

Michael Penix takes over at quarterback, and that's good news for Falcons wideout Darnell Mooney. Atlanta's primary deep threat is facing a Giants defense that allows the NFL's highest EPA on deep targets. And now Mooney has a QB with the arm strength to get it to him.

There's plenty of excitement surrounding Atlanta's overdue switch to rookie Michael Penix at QB. But it's ambitious to expect a team that rarely separates, even against poor opposition, to do so in a signal-caller's first career NFL start.

B365. Giants tight end Daniel Bellinger is coming off a 35 and 45 yard performances as the starter. With Theo Johnson inactive, Bellinger has been on the field for at least 75% of the Giants passing plays the last two weeks. And the 45 yard performance came with Drew Lock as the starter, which is who the Giants are turning to this week.

Raheem Morris finally pulled the ripcord on Kirk Cousins and benched him after another ineffective effort (albeit a labored win) last Monday vs. the Raiders and now gives the keys to the offense to Washington Huskies rookie Michael Penix, who will be making his first NFL start. Mind, the is a Falcons teams that hasn't covered a pointspread in eight weeks and starting rookie QB...this price looks a big ask, no? The G-Men aren't much, but Drew Lock at QB this week provides NY a better chance than Tommy DeVito . note one of Lock's two prior starts was in the only Giants cover in nine games, two weeks ago vs. the Saints. Play Giants

A lot of things point to Robinson seeing a heavy workload on Sunday. Rookie Michael Penix is making his first career start against a Giants defense that has been awful against the run this season. Atlanta is an 8.5-point favorite at home, so there is a good chance the Falcons are playing with the lead in the second half. Robinson is averaging 23 carries in his last three games and has gone over this number in six of his last eight. I'll back him to get at least 19 rushing attempts. Play up to 19.5.

FanDuel. Bijan Robinson has cleared this line in 6 of the last 8 games. And over that stretch, the Falcons saw many negative game scripts (3-5) - something I don’t expect a lot of against the lowly Giants. Big Blue is allowing the fifth most running back rush attempts this season. With rookie Michael Penix starting his first game, in the middle of a playoff chase, I expect the Falcons to ride Bijan and the run game in this one. I also like his rushing yards up to o91.5.

Michael Penix Jr. makes his first start for the Falcons at home against one of the league's worst teams, and it makes sense for Atlanta to ease him into the offense as he builds rapport with his receivers on the fly. In this matchup, I expect Atlanta to pound the ball as much as possible with its two-headed rushing attack. Allgeier is talented enough to potentially hit this Over in just 5-6 carries with the Giants allowing 4.9 yards per attempt, but I believe he's in for double-digit carries as Penix finds his footing. I'd look to ladder Allgeier up to 50+ yards or even slightly higher.

Darnell Mooney had a solid rookie season in Chicago, which he followed that with a promising sophomore campaign where he eclipsed 1K receiving yards. However Mooney would proceed to have consecutive disastrous seasons which ultimately led to him signing with the Falcons in the offseason. Mooney has quietly had a strong season and besides Drake London has been the most reliable target for Kirk Cousins. While Mooney has played well, he possesses just a 16% first read target rate which indicates he is unlikely to be heavily featured in Atlanta's offense with rookie signal caller Michael Pennix under center. This also looks like a spot where passing volume might be limited for Atlanta and they lean heavily on Bijan Robinson.

The Giants' injury report on defense is extensive. They'll likely be even more depleted than usual. For the season, New York gives up 4.9 yards per carry (31st, NFL). With Atlanta starting rookie Michael Penix, look for the Falcons to lean on Bijan Robinson and Allgeier (4.8 ypc) in what should be a positive game script.

This is a big number to be sure, but adding Michael Penix to their pistol-based offense, and forcing teams to defend him and not just the RB on the ground out of it with Kirk Cousins finally on the bench, should be a big boost. Even with Cousins playing, Bijan is over this in 4 of the last 6 games; in fact he's at 135+ scrimmage yards in 4 of the last 6 games. This offense will run through him in the rookie QB's first start.

The Falcons finally made the necessary move at quarterback to switch to Michael Penix Jr., but this team total is asking a lot of him in his first start, even against a bad defense. Highly-rated QBs like Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson who made their first starts in the second half of the season have won their debuts by three points, and only five of the last 50 QBs to make their career debuts in Week 10 or later have gotten to 27 points. Despite Kirk Cousins' struggles, I don't want any part of the Falcons this week, and Under on their team total is the play that makes the most sense to me.

A questionable move by the Falcons to switch to rookie Michael Penix Jr. at QB while still very much alive in the playoff chase. Make no mistake, Kirk Cousins has slumped, but his track record suggests the slide won't last forever. Penix has mopped up twice this season, throwing all of five passes, and faces a decent defense. Cousins does not shoulder all of the blame for the Falcons failing to exceed 21 points in the past five games. As sleepy as the Giants offense has been, it won't need to register a lot of points for a cover.

Sounds like we'll get Michael Penix debut; with how rookie OC Zac Robinson was already calling games with $40M QB Kirk Cousins, expect an uber-conservative approach here. Falcons tied for last in NFL with 6 offensive TDs since Week 10; Giants have 8. NYG defense is still decent but they have no downfield game. NYG are 7-3 to the under in NFC games, averaging 38.3 points. Falcons are 8-1 under outside the NFC South (going under by a whopping 6 PPG). Falcons are under in 5 of 7 home games. These two have each played games with totals at 25 and under very recently. NYG are running out of QBs, literally,