Jim Harbaugh passed up a FG attempt last week and it proved costly. Look for him to use Cameron Dicker more Sunday, in perfect conditions.

The injury news was positive in both directions for the Chargers this week. They get Ladd McConkey back with the Buccaneers losing Antoine Winfield Jr. in the secondary. Tampa Bay’s pass defense was already poor, and with Los Angeles needing to change its offensive identity following the loss of J.K. Dobbins, this plays right into its hands. The Bucs have won three straight (Giants, Panthers, Raiders), while the Chargers have lost two of three (Ravens, Chiefs), creating value in this home spot for Jim Harbaugh’s bunch.

McConkey’s over 5.5 receptions line at -114 is about 20 cents better priced at Fanduel than anywhere else as of now. McConkey has cleared this line in 3 straight games, hauling in 21 receptions on 27 targets during that span. Justin Herbert will be up against a zone blitz-heavy Bucs defense, whose secondary is riddled with injury. McConkey should find plenty of opportunities for catches in this matchup. The one concern in betting this are McConkey’s injuries that he’s playing through, but I’m willing to bet he’s healthy enough to play like his normal self.

The Bucs are fairly banged up defensively, especially at safety with a few guys out there led by All-Pro Antoine Winfield Jr. Yeah, the Bucs have won three straight but against the dregs of the league. The Bolts' only home losses are to Kansas City and Baltimore. While I'm not on the spread, LA is 8-1 ATS as a favorite this year and 4-0 ATS as a home fave. Rookie WR Ladd McConkey, leading the club in pretty much every receiving category, will play after sitting out the last game.

The Bucs will travel cross-country to take on a stout Chargers defense, who may get back LB Denzel Perryman. It also appears that Chargers WR1 Ladd McConkey will suit up, which will be huge for Justin Herbert. This Bucs secondary is beat up badly, and will be without their best DB Antoine Winfield (along with starting SS Mike Edwards, and LB K.J Britt). Tampa’s head coach Todd Bowles uses a heavy zone blitz scheme, which Herbert can exploit behind a strong offensive line. Tampa’s offense has been dangerous, but they are beat up on that side of the ball as well. RB Bucky Irving & WR Sterling Shepherd will both play through injuries. I think this healthy Chargers defense can keep Baker Mayfield at bay.

The helter-skelter Bucs have won three straight, against the Giants, Panthers and Raiders. Los Angeles outplayed Kanas City for the most part last week but fell victim to the Chiefs late-game prowess. Tampa's win streak ends against a much more balanced opponent.

We held off until injury updates, and the news tips the scales toward Tampa Bay. Ace RB Bucky Irving and B-plus WR Sterling Shepard are a go, according to reports. The Bucs should not need a flood of points to handle the Chargers, whose offense has taken a step back without ailing RB J.K. Dobbins: 17 points in each of the past two games. While the Bucs own one fewer win than L.A., their list of conquests is more dazzling. Among them are the Lions, Commanders and Eagles. They have won the last three outright, and their half-dozen defeats include two in overtime. For the Chargers, a litany of moderate injuries to QB Justin Herbert could take a toll here.

Tampa Bay can't rest easily with its lead in the NFC South as the Bucs would lose tiebreakers vs. the second-place Falcons...staying ahead of Atlanta in the standings is paramount. Having beaten both the Lions and Eagles earlier this season, this trip to SoFi to face the Bolts shouldn't cause any additional angst. Especially as Jim Harbaugh's squad has failed to demonstrate it can score points vs. competent defenses. In their five losses, the Chargers are scoring only 15 ppg, reinforcing our belief that this offense is nothing special and QB Justin Herbert perhaps a bit on the...shall we say it, overrated side? Also note the Bucs are 10-4 as a dog since early in the 2023 campaign. Play Bucs

The LA Chargers are a team that has changed their team identity with the loss of JK Dobbins. They have to win ugly, and rely more on their defense. It’s worked in low scoring games and covers against the Chiefs and Falcons. Expect the cross country travel to effect the Buccaneers offense to a degree. Baker Mayfield has had turnover issues with fumbles and four interceptions over his last two games. He’s also taken a lot of hits with twelve sacks over his last five games. Lay it with the Chargers.

Baker still tried to do too much too often. Especially lately. He's tossed 13 picks. Big number. On the road vs a very well coached D that can fool people with some of their zone looks and that has produced 13 picks already this season. Baker's redzone woes have become contagious. Can get caught force-feeding Mike Evans.

The Chargers fell short after an impressive second-half rally against the Chiefs, but that's three games now where the offense has failed to gain 300 yards. Contrarily, the Bucs have 400 yards in three straight and dominated the Raiders more than the score suggests. The Chargers defense hasn't been generating turnovers unless Kirk Cousins serves them up on a silver platter, so I think the Bucs are the better team here. The Chargers have struggled against playoff-caliber teams, and I'm betting that's what the Bucs are at this point and backing them to potentially win this game.

Bucs star safety Antoine Winfield (knee) won't play Sunday, so Tampa Bay will be without its top two safeties. Jordan Whitehead went on IR on Nov. 29. It's unclear if the Bucs will have rookie RB Bucky Irving. The Chargers expect to get No. 1 wideout Ladd McConkey back. And Justin Herbert can take apart a Tampa defense allowing 253.4 passing yards per game (third-most). The Bucs have looked good the past three weeks, beating the Giants, Panthers and Raiders. Facing Jim Harbaugh's Chargers is a major step up in class.