Liked this better at Bengals -2.5 (if you find -120, take it), but it does not appear to be coming back before kickoff. This is the must-win of all must-wins for Cincinnati, which has suffered close losses to playoff teams and exits the bye needing to win out to have a chance at the postseason. The Steelers are a strong defensive team but not as good on the road. That's allowed them to overcome an inefficient offense that grinds yards and hits explosive plays on Russell Wilson moonballs but struggles at the intermediate game. Joe Burrow is having an incredible season, and he has all his weapons – including Chase Brown, who has been a revelation. Plus, Orlando Brown is active to combat T.J. Watt.

Despite the Bengals' record, Joe Burrow has actually played really well this season. I'm going under here because of my faith in the Steelers' defense and the weather (cold/wind in Cincinnati). I could see the teams trading field goals at most in the first quarter.

Where the Steelers have an opportunity in this game is within their ability to control both sides of the line of scrimmage. Pittsburgh does a great job of making opponents play their style of football and not many teams are equipped for that type of physical battle. Look for the Steeler defense to be the story here.

It is a bit funky to see the 4-7 Bengals favored against the 8-3 Steelers, but I think the oddsmakers got it right. The Steelers were finally “fraud-checked” last week by Jameis Winston and the Browns. Now they’ll face Joe Burrow and a Bengals offense that has put up over 100 points in the span of the last 3 games. The Steelers will likely remain without edge rusher Alex Highsmith, who helps create havoc alongside TJ Watt. If Burrow is operating from a clean pocket, he can pick apart a beatable Steelers secondary. Pittsburgh has overachieved and Cincinnati has underachieved, losing one possession games to the Chiefs, Commanders, Ravens 2x, and the Chargers. They could easily be 7-4. I’m backing the sneaky home favorites.

In the past five games Mike Gesicki has played with Tee Higgins on the field, the tight end has reeled in a total of four catches. His role increases dramatically when Higgins is out. I bet Gesicki Under his catches despite what looks like a plus-matchup for tight ends.

The Cincinnati Bengals are one of the few teams in the NFL that season could be vastly different. They started off 0-3, including a one point loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. They had two games against the Ravens that were winnable as well. Look for the Bengals to come out with expected heightened play post their bye week. As tough as it is for Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh to lose consecutive games, the book is now out on Russ Wilson and the new look Steelers offense. Play the Bengals.

I've been very impressed with Jaylen Warren who has really come on strong over the past five weeks, having eclipsed this in five consecutive games, while averaging 48.4 yards per game on 11 rushing attempts. Warren gets a fantastic matchup against a dismal Bengals run defense that are 30th in EPA allowed per rush, in addition to checking in at 31st in success rate. Look for Warren to get 10+ carries and display his impressive burst and wiggle.

Chase Brown is in the midst of a breakout season and has become the Bengals feature back. While Brown has proven to be a dynamic RB, he still relies on big plays and is facing an extremely disciplined Steelers defense that excels on limiting big plays. Look for the Steelers to try and make the Benals offense one dimensional thus limiting Brown on the ground.

The Steelers RZ offense has been a disaster lately and it was at its best when Fields was at QB and finishing drives with his legs. I know the personnel usage in the RZ is drawing puzzled looks in that building and with 9 days between games I expect adjustments to be made. Fields's usage is ticking up but he hasnt been in the RZ. I look for that to change. Bengals have allowed 15 rushing TDs, 5th most in NFL. Fields leads them with 5 rushing TDs (2 more than anyone else) and he has as many RZ rushing TDs (5) as the rest of the roster combined.

Cincinnati's #2 WR has only played in six games but has started to excel in his last four contests. He is averaging more than ten targets in each of his last four games and should benefit from the fact that the Steelers run a single high defense more than any other team. Against that coverage, Higgins has a 29% target share and 42% first read share. No wonder he has three 100+ yards games vs. Pittsburgh since 2022.

Mike Tomlin will have his team ready to play; not so sure about Zac Taylor, whose Bengals find ways to lose at home. Mike Tomlin has played 29 road games in the AFC North since Dec. 1, 2014; he has lost 2 in a row just one time. One time. I'll back him to beat a team he owns coming off a loss at CLE. Tomlin is 14-4 vs Cincy and 8-3 SU in his last 11 games as a road dog. Joe Burrow has struggled vs this PIT D.

This is a perfect spot to back Mike Tomlin. Yeah the Bengals are coming off the bye, but the Bengals are 1-4 ATS at home and the Steelers are off a mini bye having last suffered a bad TNF loss to CLE. Tomlin is 8-3 ATS his last 11 as road dog and 40-25 ATS in his career. He is 7-3 ATS in his last 10 games at Cincy. He is 10-6 ATS in his last 16 games as a road dog within the AFC North. Bengals only wins vs CAR, NYG, CLE, LV. They find ways to win close games; Steelers dominate TOP, don't turn ball over and have far superior defense. Also an elite second half team. 9-5 ATS on road since '23.

The Steelers are back in their preferred role as underdogs, where they thrive. They're 4-0 ATS as dogs this season, winning all four outright, and should cover here despite Cincinnati's desperation. The Bengals have given up 5.8 yards per play over their last three games. Each of the Steelers' three losses has been tight, as they lost by a field goal twice and then 24-19 in a Cleveland snowstorm.

The Steelers are off a tough loss and can play the disrespect card as division-leading underdogs, a spot where Tomlin teams typically shine. But I can't get over how well the Bengals offense played against two tough teams on the road before their bye. Expecting they come out of the bye healthier, I can see them having similar success to Baltimore against Pittsburgh (two yards per play better) but hopefully with a result more in line with the direction of the game. I think this gets to 3 pretty quickly so I'm grabbing the value now.