There are three major reasons not to pick the Chargers: a substantial rest disadvantage (Falcons bye), the injury to J.K. Dobbins and the existence of Bijan Robinson, who should run effectively just as Derrick Henry did last week. However, the Falcons have folded against every talented defense they have faced (except for the Eagles, which themselves were lost in Week 2). Atlanta also generates zero pass rush, which should allow Justin Herbert to pick apart its defense at will. Los Angeles is strong on that side of the ball, and Jim Harbaugh does not generally lose consecutive regular-season games. I’m happy to take the Falcons in teaser legs but want LA to win straight up, especially with the special teams edge brought by Cameron Dicker.

This is a tough spot for Los Angeles. The Chargers played on Monday Night Football, and now head cross-country on a short week to face the Falcons. Atlanta is well-rested and healthy coming off their bye week, while the Chargers are down several key players (RB J.K. Dobbins, LB Denzel Perryman, CBs Cam Hart & Eli Apple). LA’s run-first offense may struggle without their lead back. We can also ride a trend that is one of the great mysteries of the world: “1pm Kirk.” In games played at 1pm or earlier, Cousins is 61-35-1 SU. 4pm or later? 22-40 SU. Maybe a witch put a curse on him, so I’ll back Cousins and the Falcons in the early window before he turns into a frog.

The Chargers are 10-3 to the under on the road since the start of last season, with games averaging 39.15 points. They are 4-1 to the under on road this season, averaging 33.4 points. Kirk Cousins failed to throw a TD pass for 2 straight weeks heading into a bye. He is 15-10 to the under as a home dog and his last 4 games in that situation have gone under by: 7.5, 5, 5.5 and 6 points. Chargers will take away all explosive plays on defense. Chargers injuries on offense will be a problem scoring TDs. Falcons are under in 4 of 6 home games this season. Falcons have failed to score more than 18 points in 3 games vs AFC this season.

Gus Edwards has just one rushing TD on the season but it came Monday night after JK Dobbins left injured and Dobbins is out today and likely for a while. So if the Bolts are at the goal line, Edwards in theory should get the ball first if healthy. This price seems quite generous.

Like the Chargers roster better but short week of a tough home loss to Super Bowl contender Baltimore on Monday night and then you obviously add in the cross-country travel and 10 a.m. Pacific kick time AND Atlanta is off its bye week and healthy now. So if rest and health mean anything in this league ....

Chargers linebacker Denzel Perryman, who is second on the team in run stops, remains out with a groin injury. LA plays a lot of light boxes, ranks 30th in explosive run rate allowed and just got demolished by Derrick Henry. Look for Bijan Robinson to break at least one run of 16-plus yards for the sixth time in the past eight games.

What do Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, rookie Bo Nix (before he began to heat up), Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston, and Will Levis have in common? They're the QBs the Bolts beat in their first six wins. (Joe Burrow was the 7th, but the Bengals really beat themselves that Sunday night two weeks ago.) Atlanta's Kirk Cousins certainly rates a few levels above most of those QBs above, and when stepping up vs. the Steelers, Chiefs, Cards, and Ravens, Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense have only scored 14.5 pg in their losses. Overrated? Maybe! Last week's bye came at a good time for the Falcs, who had lost two straight prior, but the return to Mercedes Benz should prove a plus. Play Falcons

Since Week 8, Justin Herbert has not been afraid to take off and run. Herbert is a great athlete, so it's been fun to see him use his legs successfully more recently. Herbert has rushed for 29 or more rushing yards in four of the last five games. The Falcons give up the 6th most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. So I like Herbert to continue to run and surpass this low line of 22.5 rushing yards.

Justin Herbert has run for at least 29 yards in three straight games, and I love him to make it four in a row at Atlanta. The Falcons rank dead last in QB rushing yards allowed over expectation, and LA won't have J.K. Dobbins. Although Herbert isn't likely to be pressured much -- Atlanta ranks 31st in pressure rate -- he could take off a few times when his receivers are covered.

The Falcons reliably play heavy zone coverage and are awful at pressuring the quarterback. Case in point: They've accumulated 10 sacks, fewest in the NFL. Herbert should be able to pick them apart, especially without a proven run game to work off of with JK Dobbins sidelined. I bet at least five completions are screens or real short horizontal passes used as extended runs to make up for the lack of a run game. Plus there's always a chance the game becomes a shootout, in which case Herbert will go over this mark easily.

We like to think that the Chargers defense is super formidable, but it could be a bit of smoke and mirrors, particularly versus the run. From a Yards Per Carry standpoint, the Chargers are well below average and they'll meet a very solid running game in Atlanta behind Bijan Robinson. Bijan was stymied versus Denver (before Atlanta's bye) mostly due to game script, but he had 19+ carries in each of the previous two games and rushed for 86 and 116 yards. I expect him to get at least 15-16 carries (maybe as many as 19 again) and that should be plenty to get over this line.

I made this same bet last week against the Ravens and it missed, but I'm happy to go right back to it against a Falcons team that doesn't create pressure and is pretty poor against the pass. I think the Chargers will rely even more on Justin Herbert without JK Dobbins and I think both teams move the ball relatively easily on offense. Prior to last week, Herbert had hit two touchdowns in 3 of 4 games. I expect Herbert and this wide receiver group to bounce back.

The rookie has become Justin Herbert's go-to guy, and with JK Dobbins hurt now, I expect him to be even more of a factor in the screen game and on third down. Big target with a knack for getting open and finding holes in zone. He has 5 more catches than any Charger over the last 5 games and most targeted as well. I like the potential payout here and he has 6 catches in 3 of the last 5 games and 5 in one other. Atlanta gets no pass rush and is allowing a QB rating of 113 and over 70% completions in its last 5 games.

The Chargers have the No. 1 scoring defense in football at 15.9 points per game allowed, but it's been exposed the last two weeks by the Bengals and Ravens. The Falcons have a good enough offense to put up points on this unit, and I don't trust their defense to stop any competent quarterback with its lack of pass rush. Last week's Ravens game was the first time in five weeks the Chargers didn't score at least 26, so they should do their part to get this one over, while I'd also look at alt Overs of 26.5 and 27.5 on L.A.'s team total.

The Chargers' two recent points-filled games -- 61 and 53 -- are misleading. The opponents, Cincinnati and Baltimore, wield high-powered offenses. L.A.'s first eight outings all landed in the 20s and 30s, and they will miss injured RB J.K. Dobbins, who accounts for 60 percent of the team's ground yards and has eight TDs. Atlanta's offense started the season ablaze but has burned out, with 23 points produced in the past two games. The concern is that run-minded coach Jim Harbaugh might take to the air without Dobbins, but that would go against type.

The Chargers had faced the easiest schedule of opposing rushing attacks until hosting the Ravens on Monday Night Football. Baltimore rushed for 212 yards (5.7 ypc) in the 30-23 win. Now, traveling on a short week, LA must deal with Bijan Robinson (4.7 ypc) and Tyler Allgeier (5.0 ypc). The Chargers missed LB Denzel Perryman (groin) vs. Baltimore and his status remains unclear. They definitely won't have running back J.K. Dobbins (knee). Look for a tight game in Atlanta and grab the points.

The Chargers offense slumped in the second half Monday after losing feature back JK Dobbins. It will put even more pressure on Herbert to deliver passing scores. He has been performing at an elite level since October, and the Falcons generate no pressure and have allowed 13 passing TDs in their last 5 games (tied for most in NFL) and a passer rating of 110,3 (29th).