Michael Pittman went for 6 catches & 96 receiving yards last week against the Lions, and is likely to be featured again this week with Josh Downs sidelined. Colts QB Anthony Richardson threw for an ugly 11/28 last week, with more than half of his completions going to Pittman. The Patriots were chewed up by Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle last week for 8/144/1TD, whose play style profiles similarly to Pittman. Richardson will have few other targets to look for.

The Colts have been an iffy proposition this season no matter who starts at QB, and Anthony Richardson took a step backwards last week without Josh Downs, who will again be missing here. The Patriots are not the Lions, though, and while Drake Maye impresses in spurts, he doesn’t put it together for 60 minutes. AR and Jonathan Taylor should be able to get what they want on the ground, which will open up the passing game a bit. The real reason for this pick, though, is the Indianapolis defense, which is simply superior to what New England offers. With advantages in the areas that control the clock, let’s back AR and the Colts as rare road favorites.

Rookie Drake Maye is an upgrade at QB for New England, but the team is nonetheless 2-5 straight-up with him starting. The Pats still rank dead-last in yards per game. Though Indy has gotten pounded by superior opponents, it has beaten four out of five foes with sub-.500 records. Let's compare ATS marks: the Colts are 8-4, the Pats 4-7-1. A 2.5-point spread against a weak foe can be a temptress, but any spot less than a field goal with the Pats involved is irresistible.

Interestingly enough, the Colts have a chance to run the table the rest of the way. Their last 'tough' game was last week vs Detroit. With the potential of the postseason within their grasp, look for their run game and physical defense to travel well with them to New England.

The Colts have lost four of the last five but it's who they lost to that matters as much as the losses. They lost to a who's who of NFL teams that are high-level playoff teams like the Lions, the Bills, the Vikings, and the Texans. It’s a legitimate excuse for the Colts. With the bad teams they played, they've done extremely well and covered. They're 5-7 on the season but 8-4 against the spread. The Patriots have the worst offense in the NFL at only 280 yards per game and are -7 in turnover margin. Colts take care of business against a lesser team. Colts cover.

In the five games Stevenson has 20 or more carries in this year, the Patriots have either won or lost by one score. In the six games he has 13 or fewer carries, the Patriots lost every time including two blowouts. I do think they can hang with the Colts, giving Stevenson the gamescript to have a lot of rushes. It especially helps that nine different running backs have 14 or more rush attempts against the Colts this year, including one in each of their past seven games.

He's hit double digit in carries in 3 of the last 4 games and this is a must-win game on the road for a desperate Colts team. If they are going to hang around the playoffs, they need to win, and the most explosive thing about their team is this kid running the ball. Patriots are not special against the run and Jonathan Taylor has been mundane lately and short yardage and option ball and scrambles and maybe a kneel down or two as well get us to 12 or more, I project. He has 40 rushes over the past 4 weeks.

For nine straight weeks, Matt Gay has made two or more field goals. Why would we stray from the trend this week? Meanwhile, New England has given up multiple field goal attempts in 8 of 12 games this season. Until it misses, I'll continue to ride this pick each week.

The Pats are horrible covering at home (2-10-2 since the start of '23) and the Colts excel on road (9-5 ATS in that span). But I'm going to cut the game in half. NE can't start games quickly. They have trailed by 3 points or more at the half in 8 of their last 9 home games; their -57 first half PD at home since start of last season is 31st in the NFL. Colts have led at the half by 6+ in their last two road games with Anthony Richardson back at QB. Colts have a very solid defense and have faced a tough gauntlet of teams. I like them to carry a lead to the half.

The Patriots were embarrassed by the Dolphins on Sunday, falling behind 31-0, but that Miami team is in a much better spot than this Indy team. Anthony Richardson turned back into a pumpkin after one good week, and the offense sustained several WR injuries, with key weapon Josh Downs looking unlikely for this game. The Colts have been managing OL injuries as well and now Richardson might be taking snaps from a third-string center. With New England relatively healthy and hosting a struggling indoor team in cold conditions, they shouldn't be catching the full 3 anywhere.