I’m looking for ways to play Nick Chubb today. Ultimately I settled on him to score a touchdown. The Saints do give up rush TDs and I expect him to capitalize and have a big game.

32 targets in 3 games since Cooper was traded. NOLA isn’t great in the secondary. I’m betting he is a thing.

Cedric Tillman is THE alpha guy in a passing offense that should throw plenty on a fast track indoors in NOLA. He is on a roll and we are going to keep playing him until further notice.

Browns QB Jameis Winston will go up against his old Saints team. Cleveland has a big health advantage here. New Orleans is coming off an upset win over the Falcons, which has given us the opportunity to bet the Browns at a good price. Don't forget... this is still an ugly 3-7 Saints team that lost to the Carolina panthers the week prior. The Saints offensive line has struggled all year with injury and inexperience, and I envision them struggling against Browns monster DE Myles Garrett and company. Saints QB Derek Carr's numbers drop off a cliff under pressure. New Orleans remains without WRs Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Bub Means.

The Jameis WInston revenge game narrative might be a bot overblown, but this is still a decent spot for a Browns team that is just starting to get its act together against a Saints club that is likely nearing a full rebuild.

There has been one-way action in the market on this spread all week, with the Browns now out to 1.5-point favorites across the board. If the game goes according to that script, it seems likely Chubb is getting in the end zone, right? The Saints allow 5.1 yards per carry (31st in NFL) and have given up 14 rushing TDs, with 12 going to running backs (31st in NFL). I think it's a mistake to not have this number in the same area as say a Josh Jacobs, who is available for -135 at DK.

The Browns are as healthy as they've been all season and should be able to run all over the Saints, who give up 5.1 yards per carry. Forget the Jameis Winston revenge angle -- this bet is about a depleted Saints team that was extremely fortunate to beat Atlanta last week, allowing 468 total yards. Look for Kevin Stefanski to improve to 4-1 coming off a bye.

This looks like it might be the Nick Chubb breakout game. Chubb is now a few weeks back from his knee injury and he has a juicy matchup on Sunday. The Saints allow opponents to rush for 5.1 YPC (last in the NFL) and give up 141 yards per game on the ground (27th). Chubb has gotten 15 and 16 carries in the last two games. After last week, there is no way the Browns can let Jameis Winston throw the football. I expect Cleveland to lean on Chubb against the soft Saints rush defense.

Nick Chubb has had three consecutive pedestrian performances since returning to the Browns lineup, however I think he has a great shot to have a vintage performance in Week 11. In Chubb's previous two outings, he faced the Ravens and Chargers who both rank top 3 in EPA allowed per rush. Now Chubb has had the BYE week, in addition to facing a Saints run defense that is downright dismal ranking 31st in EPA allowed per rush and 30th in success rate. Chubb should see 15+ carries and I expect the Browns to find success on the ground.

Once Amari Cooper left town, it has become Cedric Tillman time in Cleveland. It also doesn't hurt that Jameis Winston is a more competent throwing quarterback than Deshaun Watson. Tillman has 75 or more yards in three straight games and faces a Saints defense that has allowed the fourth-most yards per game to opposing wide receivers. I'll continue to ride the hot streak in Week 11, especially in a Winston revenge game in New Orleans.

Did you know that Jameis Winston has now had 13 games where he has thrown at least 3 INTs? Yeah, kinda crazy. And a week before tossing three against the Chargers the Ravens dropped 4 potential INTs. Saints secondary remains legit, with 12 INTs to just 8 TDs allowed. Winston will be chucking the ball up for grabs against his former team, because that is how he rolls. No risk it, no biscuit.

Kamara is averaging 42 receiving yards per game and with Derek Carr back under center he will get plenty of chances to catch screens in strides and get his YAC on. Browns banged up at LB, and RB coverage is a big problem (87.1% completions, 30th in NFL, and 6.6 yards/att, 21st). Kamara has at least 54 receiving yards in three straight games and is over this in 5 of the last 7 games. Horizontal passing game is a smart approach against this Jim Schwartz defense., and Carr wont use his legs as much as back-up QBs did, and loves the check down and screen.

The Saints are fresh off getting a win in interim coach Darren Rizzi's debut, but I don't know that the success is sustainable. The defense allowed 468 yards and 6.4 yards per play but benefited from three missed FGs as the Falcons got into Saints territory on eight of their last nine drives while only scoring 17 points. The offense got to face the softest pass rush in the league, allowing Derek Carr to hit a few long passes to make up the bulk of the attack. The Browns defense is a much tougher test, while the Browns offense is healthy and has had the bye to adjust to Jameis Winston's strengths. I agree with the consistent market move toward Cleveland.