The Eagles have been outstanding during their current three-game winning streak, and will have A.J. Brown back on the field. Jacksonville is beat up, and I can't see them scoring enough to keep this within a touchdown.

The Jaguars are beat up and slumping, while the Eagles are starting to show signs of peaking. I expect a big performance from the Philadelphia offense on Sunday. Th Eagles should be up by a touchdown by halftime.

Here are the points scored in the Jaguars' last four outings: 71, 51, 48, 57. The outputs are no flukes. The defense struggles to stop the run and struggles-times-two against the pass. The offense is on pace for a club record yards-per-play average. RBs Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby, along with WR Brian Thomas, entered the weekend with availability uncertain. Looks like all will play. Philly has put up 28 and 37 in the past two weeks. This total is a tad high but should be eclipsed if both teams continue to flex muscles on offense.

The Eagles are clearly pointing up having finally determined that the offense must be run through the ground game helmed by Saquon Barkley. The Jaguars, meanwhile, showed some fight against the Packers last week but have otherwise been atrocious this season. Even if Brian Thomas Jr. plays, I don’t see how Jacksonville keeps up with Philadelphia offensively. On the defensive end, the Jags are pitiful having allowed 30+ points in three of their last four games (the lowly Patriots being the exception). Philly is better on both sides of the ball with more playmakers and fewer injury concerns. Getting this without the hook is key. Keep an eye on the Eagles WR props, too.

The sportsbooks likely aren't dealing with an overload of tickets on Jacksonville, but we're happy to balance their books a little. Even though the Jags are banged up at WR and RB, they are coming off perhaps their best offensive performance of the season. Trevor Lawrence threw for 308 yards and 2 TDs last week. The Eagles have yet to cover as a home chalk this season and are in a potential squeeze spot ahead of their looming NFC East showdown with the Cowboys.

Philly's defense has quietly made strides over the last few weeks. They will now face a Jaguars team that is beat up on offense. Both of Jacksonville's starting RBs are 'questionable', WR Christian Kirk is out for the season, and star rookie WR Brian Thomas is a 'game-time decision', as he deals with a chest injury. Jacksonville's starting LG Ezra Cleveland will miss this game too. Their limited group may struggle. The Eagles should be playing with the lead, running the ball, and bleeding clock. The Jaguars porous defense may concern Under bettors, but the return of CB Tyson Campbell will help their secondary. Public bets continue to come in on the Over, yet the total has only dropped. Reverse movement. Play Under 46.

No team plays more man coverage than Jacksonville, and that's a coverage A.J. Brown destroys. The Jags also give up the most receiving yards per game (78.9) on deep throws. Brown has exceeded this prop total in each of the four games he's played this season.

Saquon Barkley has failed to top this in three straight games but did three times in the first four and the Jags tend to allow a fair amount of RB receiving yardage. JaMychal Hasty had 49 yards against JAX, James Cook 48, Dare Ogunbowale 47 and Trey Sermon 25. None of those guys can hold a candle to Barkley (Cook is pretty good).

I figure the gamescript will help here as Hurts shouldn't have to throw many passes to help the Eagles beat the Jaguars. And Hurts has been under this number in three straight games. But here's the crazy part: every single QB the Jaguars has played has thrown at least 27 passes. 27. Exactly one-half attempt under this number. It's as if the oddsmakers wanted you to see THAT and take the over. But because of how the Eagles operate, and because I think the game will be a blowout -- and the oddsmakers agree since Philly is a 7.5-point favorite -- the right play is to take the under.

AJ Brown is quietly having another stellar season and had he not missed a trio of games he would be on pace for 1,735 yards, 13 TDs. He gets unarguably the best matchup for opposing #1 WRs in the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags play man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, while simultaneously double teaming at one of the lowest rates coupled with a nearly nonexistent pass rush. Opposing WRs have had a field day and it should come at little surprise that Jacksonville surrenders the 4th most yards to opposing WRs, despite a 2-6 record and their opponents rarely playing from behind.

Brown has played four games and cashed this three times. The Jags give up at least one TD pass to WRs each game. Their secondary stinks and covering this weapon and slowing down the run game will be next to impossible for them. Top receivers eat against them. Eagles have just one redzone pass in the last three games, awful weird and they will be running more plays and looking to this box-out, high-point power forward when they do get down there against this poor defense.

This a great match-up for a WR who is a match-up nightmare and is back in top form. Jalen Hurts getting great protection from his OL and Jags have no pass rush, so should be bombs away at home here. Brown has at least 84 receiving yards in his last 4 games. Jags allowing 8.8 yards/attempt to WRs, second most in the NFL. Jags allowing the fourth-highest opposing QB rating in the NFL on throws to WRs. They also have a bottom 4 redzone D. Plenty of targets and opportunities to catch the ball deep downfield or turn a screen into a big game against a terrible tackling defense.

The Jaguars are 3-11 straight-up dating to the end of last season. Over their last six games, they've giving up an average of 31 points. They play more man coverage than any team, which is a recipe for disaster against A.J. Brown. Philly is undefeated with Brown in the lineup (3-1 ATS) and the defense has gotten a lift from a pair of highly-touted rookie cornerbacks. Philly just held the Joe Burrow-led Bengals to 4.8 yards per play. And over the past three games, the Eagles are yielding 3.9 yards per play -- by far the lowest in the NFL.

We lost 6.5 and we might lose 7 soon too as Jacksonville could be criminally short-handed offensively on Sunday for sure already without wideouts Brian Thomas (top ROY candidate; now it turns out he may not miss 2-4 weeks after all but still seems doubtful for Sunday) and Christian Kirk (done for year). WR Gabe Davis also had to leave Sunday's game and we don't know word on him yet, while top RB Travis Etienne has missed the past two. Don't think the Eagles overlook the Jags considering it's Coach Doug Pederson's (second) return to Philly. But we might push.

I don't think this will be around much longer. I will risk the push. Eagles OL will be way too much for a bad and beat up Jags D to handle. Doug Pederson's return to Philly isn't going to inspire his broken team. Now Trevor Lawrence has even fewer targets to throw to, and Tank Bigsby will get a ton of attention. Eagles can cover road-grading with Saquan Barkley and Jalen Hurts and sprinkling in some big play action shots. Trevor Lawrence is 3-13 vs NFC, losing 10 times by a TD or more and 12 times by 6+ points; 4-12 ATS, with cover margin of -8.3! JAX 30th in NFL allowing 28 PPG (30th); Eagles D has been improving.