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Two weeks ago Doubs was suspended by the team, after he lashed out in frustration regarding his lack of involvement in the offense. Since then, Doubs has rattled off two monster games, clearing this total in each of them. Last week Doubs caught 8 receptions for 94 yards, and was targeted 10 times. The double digit targets make Doubs a player worth betting against this Jaguars secondary. Packers QB Jordan Love should have no issue dicing them up, and Doubs has become a reliable target against zone coverage. Look for him to keep continue being involved.
The Jaguars’ two wins this season came against teams with inexperienced quarterbacks and frustrating offenses. They’re 0-5 otherwise with four of those losses coming by 4+ points. The Packers frustrated a bit against the Texans last week (despite still winning) but have proven capable of rolling past weaker opponents. Trevor Lawrence is not CJ Stroud, and while Tank Bigsby has flashed (Travis Etienne is out), Green Bay has a top 50% run defense compared to the bottom-third units from opponents he exploited (Patriots, Colts). Jordan Love has struggled a bit with turnovers but gets a lackluster secondary here against all of his receiving weapons. See if -3 is available before kickoff.
Green Bay's inactive list is pretty good news for the Pack as few guys who were listed as questionable are playing led by center Josh Myers. There might be more Packers fans in Jacksonville today, and I'm curious how the Jags will fare overall after spending the past two weeks in London eating bad food and drinking warm beer. Both QBs are INT-prone, but Green Bay's secondary is much better than Jacksonville's. If this were Pack -3, I'd play that instead but only 3.5s.
A season filled with flubs and self-destructive tendencies finally found some light last week in their win over the Patriots. If they can build on the version that showed up for the final three quarters last week, there is value in the points against a Green Bay team in a letdown spot.
Jaguars running back Travis Etienne has not been ruled out yet but reportedly is unlikely to play. There are a lot of ways you could play Tank Bigsby, then, but he got the ball 26 times last week with Etienne sitting.
Jayden Reed has been quiet the past two games, putting up 38 total receiving yards on 10 targets. Now we're getting value on his receiving yards prop, in a terrific matchup. Reed should be matched up often in the slot against Jaguars rookie Jarrian Jones. Reed is facing a Jags defense that allows the highest passer rating and second-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks.
Packers tight end Tucker Kraft saw his targets spike when Green Bay had multiple wideouts unavailable. The Packers' top four receivers are healthy now, and Kraft has drawn four targets each of the past two games. I bet against Kraft making four grabs Sunday.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are still a long ways away from the team they were a season ago. Yet, perhaps they found some new wrinkles offensively in Europe. Running back Tank Bigsby has proven he should be the feature running back, and rookie wide receive Brian Thomas Jr. continues to develop. With the Packers they have had extended travel this season to Brazil, Los Angeles, and now Jacksonville. Look for the Jags to perform well as they did after Europe last season against Indianapolis.
Romeo Doubs has been a reliable target earner in the Packers passing offense and now gets blessed with the best matchup for pass catchers, the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are flat out awful against the pass ranking dead last in EPA per dropback, blitz rate, while playing man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, in addition to double coverage at one of the lowest rates in the league. This bodes extremely well for Number 1 options which Doubs is operating as with a 16% first-read target rate.
Green Bay's Jordan Love has eight picks in his five games -- remember he missed a couple -- and at least one in each. Through 23 career starts, Love has thrown 22 interceptions. Could the Bears actually have a better QB than the Packers for the first time since, I don't know, hula hoops were cool? (Were they ever?) OK, I'm not going that far. Yet.
The Jags have the worst RZ defense in the NFL, and they cannot defend the deep ball to prevent scored from beyond the 20s. They have allowed 16 passing TDs, most in the NFL, despite facing some awful QBs and they have just 1 INT to show for it. Love has gone 9 straight with 2 TDs, and Jags are far more stout vs the run. He can throw short TDs to the TEs and RB, and long ones to the WRs. He's over this in 3 of his last 4 games.
The Jags pass D stinks, allowing a 113.7 rating (31st) and 30th in YPA and giving up 274 yards/G despite facing some of the weakest passing offenses in the NFL. Jordan Love's problem has been INTs killing drives and taking points and yards off the board, but the Jags have just one INT despite getting the ball chucked all over the place against them. Love isn't reliant on any one target and he's due for a 300-yard game. Jags have a toothless pass rush and coverage issues at LB and throughout the secondary. Love will complete several bombs over 30 yards along the way. Love's numbers are depressed from some of the issues they had, but this defense is ripe to get carved.
The Jaguars are coming off a blowout win over the Patriots that I'm chalking up to an improbable punt return TD rather than them fixing their issues. If you still rate them as a well below average team, this line doesn't make much sense. The Packers might be top five and finally got a breakout game from their defense against the Texans, winning without any takeaways. The Jags defense has given up 16 passing TDs versus just one interception this year, ad it's easy to see the Packers scoring several TDs in this game. I don't think this Jacksonville offense can keep up.
Not scared to be square here. This spread will rise. Jags spent two weeks in London, not ideal. Jordan Love can carve their weak D (and cutdown on INTs here). Jags passing game is suspect and Green Bay is getting more used to its new defensive coordinator by the week. Love is 4-1 ATS in his last 5 on the road including playoffs and 6-3 ATS in his last 9 overall. Packers have wins of 6, 16, and 2 already vs AFC South teams. Doug Pederson is 4-7 ATS vs the NFC since going to the Jags. Jags are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games. Trevor Lawrence is a turnover machine and Pack D is elite taking ball away.