Pickens only had two catches last week, but that was in a tough matchup on the road against Denver. The week before he easily went over this number and I project him at 4.35 catches. Plus money is nice

Football thrill-seekers might want to look elsewhere, but dull as this one promises to be, the result still counts. Justin Herbert dealing with an ankle injury is not good news for the Bolts; in case he might be forced to the sidelines, it's either Easton Stick or Taylor Heinicke time for Jim Harbaugh. Burt even if Herbert were healthy, the new-look Steel Curtain would prove a proper blockade, especially as the Chargers are more ground-oriented this season due to lack of dynamic wideouts. Don't expect J.K. Dobbins to post another 100+ YR game vs. the modern Steel Curtain as he has done in the first two weeks. Justin Fields, 2-0 as a starter, stays in at QB for Steel. Play Steelers

The Steelers held Bijan Robinson to 3.8 yards per carry in Week 1, a feat that looks more impressive after we saw Robinson erupt for 6.9 ypc in Philadelphia. Pittsburgh's defense is legit and facing a Chargers offense that might not have Justin Herbert (ankle). And it's not like LA has a capable backup. The Steelers will be able to load up to stop J.K. Dobbins. Pittsburgh will be amped up for the team's first home game. Get this while it is still below a field goal.

Harris had 17 carries last week, 20 carries the week before. He's a huge part of the Steelers' plan to wear down defenses, control the clock and bring home a win. It's a little scary he played just 48% of the snaps, but he's had 68.5% of the rush attempts for the Steelers this year. The Chargers pinned down Las Vegas in Week 1, but even the Panthers averaged 4.9 ypc against the Chargers last week, so I'm not ready to say they're so good against the run that the Steelers will abandon. And if the Chargers have a banged-up Justin Herbert, or no Justin Herbert, then the Steelers should be able to keep the game close and low-scoring, which is perfect for Harris' workload.

The Chargers are dealing with several key injuries, most notably with their quarterback. Justin Herbert has a high ankle sprain, which is not something I'd expect him to play through seven days after suffering the injury, especially with the Chargers at 2-0 and now having to think about potentially playing well into January and even moreso with a matchup against an elite pass rush. The lookahead line was Steelers -2.5 and all the Chargers did last week was beat up on the league's worst team, so it feels like hitting this at the same number while available is too good to pass up.

The new-look Chargers go to Pittsburgh and feature Justin Herbert as the appetizer but the meat and potatoes are the running game and the defense. They have the No. 2 running game in the NFL. In two games they've averaged 197 yards per game featuring JK Dobbins the newcomer from Baltimore who's been injured most of his young career but is making a huge difference for the Chargers. And then the defense is No. 2 in the NFL allowing 227 yards per game. They've played two subpar teams but they've got confidence brewing and that's all that matters under Jim Harbaugh. He's shown the way and they are following. Chargers cover.

Run game and defense has been the mantra for the Steelers success since the 70s. They're able to play an efficiently physical game. The Chargers are well on their way to doing the same things under Jim Harbaugh. This game will come down to Justin Herbert having to make a few more plays in the passing game, and I don't see him having consistent success vs the Pittsburgh pass rush.

JK Dobbins is in LA for a reason - he used to play for the OC in BAL and he was drafted by the HC's brother in BAL. He is a perfect scheme fit and, yeah, he doesn't have Lamar Jackson in the backfield with him anymore, but Dobbins averaged 6.9 yards/carry vs the Steelers as a Raven. He had games of 15 for 1333 and 15 for 120 and 17 for 93. And he's been a terror for LAC with their revamped OL. Chargers are the running ball 60% of time (3rd-most in NFL), and Dobbins is twitchy enough to break off explosive runs even when Steelers are keyed on the ground game. Even against a good D, these numbers are very low.

This is a low total yet again. Each team has allowed one passing touchdown and zero rushing touchdowns on the season. Pittsburgh has four interceptions on the year and both teams are in the top 5 in regard to opponent’s yards per game. The Chargers have held their opponents to a combined 6.5 points per game while Pittsburgh is allowing a combined eight points. The Steelers can move the ball down the field but have struggled scoring touchdowns, relying on field goals. Both teams have combined to go 4-0 to the under thus far.

I'm just not buying the Chargers yet, although obviously they are well-coached. Justin Herbert injured his leg in Sunday's win; it doesn't sound serious even if he was spotted limping after the game. A lack of mobility against TJ Watt is not ideal. It's Pittsburgh's home opener, and will it be Russell Wilson or Justin Fields at quarterback? Hard to imagine benching Fields at 2-0 even if Wilson is healthy ... but it's not like JF is putting up good numbers in a conservative offense. Seems like the Steelers got out of Sunday's win in Denver healthy.