The Chiefs are the Chiefs. The Bengals still don’t look like the Bengals – at least the team we have come to expect. Joe Burrow has reached see-it-before-I-believe-it status after putting up another clunker in a loss to the Patriots last week. Tee Higgins is out, and Ja’Marr Chase was held to 62 yards last week amid ongoing contract issues. Meanwhile, the Kansas City defense continues to be underrated as most focus on its offensive success. Most weeks, this spread would be around -4, but circumstances have led to an understandable adjustment. As long as this stays below -7.5, I’m comfortable enough riding with Patrick Mahomes and his bevy of weapons at home.

The Bengals looked like a disorganized and short-handed mess in last week's disastrous loss to the Patriots. Although they should be improved in Week 2, the point spread isn't advised. But the likely game script calls for Burrow to clip this number even with limited weapons at his disposal.

Only Indianapolis ran fewer plays in Cincy last week (48). Meanwhile the Chiefs allow 64 plays per game since last year. I project at least nine more running back rushes this week so let’s take Moss over

Joe Burrow had some trouble last week only throwing for 164 yards to eight different receivers completing 21 of 29. Just short passes. The running game didn't show much either, it's a very nothing day. They lost to the Patriots. But they can pick up their heads and win in Kansas City. They've lost the last two meetings there after three wins in 2022. This will jump-start them. Burrow needs this Chiefs challenge to wake him up. A couple of deep balls and more of Chase Brown running the ball. Bengals plus the points.

With all of the attention paid to the Chiefs' offense, the defense might be the team's strongest unit. It boasted the league's second-ranked D last season and limited to potent Ravens to 20 points in the opener. The Bengals blundered through a Week One loss to New England, scoring 10 points. Cincy is 3-2 straight-up versus K.C. in recent meetings, with its defense deserving most of the credit. Coordinator Lou Anarumo has figured out how to contained Patrick Mahomes and crew.

Marquise Brown won't be back for the Chiefs here, but the offense looked just fine without him in Week 1. The same couldn't be said for the Bengals without Tee Higgins, who is doubtful for this game, as is rookie tackle Amarius Mims and tight end Tanner Hudson. The Chiefs can focus on slowing down Ja'Marr Chase and I'm not sure who else steps up for Cincy. On the other side, the Chiefs will be able to get a lead and extend it by dominating the trenches with an elite interior O-line against a poor Cincy defensive front. I have this line as Chiefs -7 and I may still be a little light on Kansas City's rating, so I'd still play this at -6.

Taking an under on Mahomes is always dangerous, but the Bengals run defense has a bull's-eye on it after Rhamondre Stevenson crushed them in Week 1. Cincy missed 11 tackles on rushes, and literally just two of Stevenson's cumulative rush yards were before contact! So why wouldn't the Chiefs try to run on that defense with Isiah Pacheco? That specific concept is reflected in Pacheco's higher-than-usual rushing props, but Mahomes' pass attempts remain inflated. That's especially since he attempted just 28 passes in Week 1, and since he's been under this number in each of his past three regular-season games against the Bengals!

Chiefs rookie Xavier Worthy had quite the NFL debut and while he may never again have a game where he rushes for a score and catches a TD pass, I think Patrick Mahomes is going to want to especially give XW a shot at touchdown Sunday. Why? Because Bengals CB Cam Taylor-Britt said this Wednesday about what Worthy adds to the Chiefs offense: "Speed, that's about it. He can run straight -- run jet sweeps and just run straight. He can't do too much else, so that's about it." You know that's on the KC locker-room bulletin board (if those still exist).

Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing offense struggled in Week 1. Burrow finished with a miserable 5.7 yards per attempt and finished with just 164 passing yards against the Patriots. While Joe Cool certainly didn't look great, I believe better days are ahead and this looks like the type of game environment that should lend it self to a bounce back performance. We're getting a major discount on this number as Burrow's passing yards prop routinely is around 275 yards. Even if Tee Higgins sits for this game, this game should feature plenty of passing volume.

This prop has already climbed a bit but I still want a part of it. The Bengals defense looks like it's going to be very bad on the interior this year, allowing good ground games to attack up the middle. The Chiefs have maybe the best interior offensive line in the game, which should allow Pacheco to get over this number, which he did in seven of his last 10 games last year (including playoffs). I'd also look to sprinkle on Pacheco getting 100+ rushing yards in this game as this has potential to be his best showing of the season when all is said and done.