I think this game will feature plenty of scoring, and I love this spot for McBride. Marvin Harrison Jr. is going to attract plenty of attention from Buffalo, and McBride thrived with Murray in the lineup in 2023. I expect the young TE to finish with 60+ yards here.

The Bills have roster turnover and uncertainty on both sides of the ball. But the rebuilding offense will surely see Josh Allen finding a safety blanket in the sure handed and speedy slot receiver, who became a reliable weapon down the stretch last season. Quick hitters near the line of scrimmage should help Shakir clear this number.

In three of Kyler Murray's past four seasons, his most-targeted receiver has averaged north of 6.0 receptions per game. I expect the No. 4 overall pick of the 2024 draft and arguably the cleanest WR prospect in the last 20 years to be Murray's top target. I also think the Cardinals will have to throw a lot against the Bills, whose secondary has undergone some changes that might make them susceptible to allowing some numbers.

Lining up in the slot, Shakir will see a large share of targets from Josh Allen just as other slot receivers have. He finished 2023 with at least four catches in three of his final four games and faces a Cardinals secondary that is a mess.

Going to plant my flag here: Khalil Shakir is the WR1 for the Bills this season, and we're going to get some nice value on his props until the market catches up. After ascending to playing more than half the offensive snaps last year, Shakir averaged 53.6 yards in 10 games to close out the regular season then saw 12 targets in the playoffs. As Josh Allen's only holdover weapon at receiver, Shakir should be in for a big day against a bad Cardinals defense, which could concede this number on one play even if Shakir doesn't get the volume I expect.

James Cook looks poised to be heavily featured in Buffalo’s offense. After the Bills moved on from OC Ken Dorsey for Joe Brady, it resulted in more usage, in addition to a more consistent floor, while Cook was averaging 17 touches per game. Keep in mind this was before both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis vacated Buffalo's offense. This is a tremendous matchup as well as Arizona projects to be one of the worst defenses in the NFL, in addition to being a significant run funnel.

The spread is right where it should be with the Bills favored by 6.5 but that's a major downgrade to the Bills from previous seasons with Josh Allen. His receiving core is questionable at best. This is one I think the Cardinals can steal. James Connor doing the running, Kyler Murray doing the running and passing, and hitting Marvin Harrison Jr for a couple of passes. The Cardinals really are a mystery because Jonathan Gannon didn't show any of Murray or the starters in the preseason. I think this is about two teams going in different directions, Arizona moving on up, Buffalo moving down. Arizona with the points.

The cards should get to 20. The Bills D isn’t great and Kyler is GREAT in garbage time…..boom

James Conner Over 69.5 Scrimmage Yards: It’s easy to forget about the Cardinals running back, but from Week 11 on last season he produced 105.4 total yards per game from scrimmage, which was third in the NFL. For all the hype around Kyler Murray, Conner is the central cog in this offense. They face a Bills defense with issues up from that allowed 4.7/carry a year ago (29th in NFL) and ranked 21st in EPA vs the run. Bills allowed 6.3 yards/reception to RBs last year, third most in football, and their safety situation might still be pretty iffy.

Josh Allen was a TD machine last season, especially in the second half of the year when they leaned into being a more physical, run-heavy team. He sets the tone, the fans feed off it and there is no one to vulture those RZ carries from him. We will always grab this at plus money. Has 15 rush TD his last 15 G and hit paydirt in 12 of 17 games last season. Cards gave up 19 rush TD last season (25th). I see him picking up right where he left off a year ago.

Arizona covered its first three games last season under Jonathan Gannon, and that was without Kyler Murray. Now the Cardinals, who should field an explosive offense featuring Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, are getting nearly a touchdown for their season-opening visit to Buffalo. The Bills lost standout linebacker Matt Milano during the preseason; they're not guaranteed to get Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes-Scantling back from their injuries for Week 1. Look for a run-heavy Bills' gameplan as Buffalo escapes with a narrow win.

The Arizona Cardinals can be a feisty team this season. Despite their 4-13 straight-up record (9-8 against the spread) last season, they played hard for their coach, Johnathan Gannon. Arizona had twelve draft picks and significantly improved their secondary, defensive line, and wide receiver positions. The Buffalo Bills are currently dealing with numerous injuries and have lost as favorites in two of the last three opening-week seasons. Since 2005, non-playoff teams have performed well against playoff teams in Week 1, with a record of 73-52-1 (58.4%) against the spread (ATS). Grab the six points.

I think I'm being pretty aggressive with my power ratings for these teams. I have the Bills down with the Cowboys and Texans at +2, and I have the Cardinals up with the Bucs and Raiders at -3. Even that only gets this line to Bills -7, so we're either going to see either team be closer to league average for his line to make sense. I'm banking that the market's initial line of Bills -7 was correct here.

Kyler Murray is healthy and he has a nice pair of weapons (Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride) at his disposal. Buffalo's high-powered offense will be without Stefon Diggs, but there are still plenty of playmakers (Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, etc.) for Josh Allen. Both teams project to be average on the defensive side of the ball in 2024, which leads me to believe this Week 1 matchup will be an offensive shootout. In my opinion, this over/under number should be north of 50 points. Jump on the 48 while you still can.