This game is considered a toss-up based on the odds, and that’s appropriate given this is a win-and-you’re-in game. Both teams have overachieved to a degree, though it’s the Colts with a negative point differential (-15) and a defense actually plays worse in Indianapolis. The Texans are most bothered by strong defensive teams, which the Colts certainly are not. That’s not to say Houston has been great defensively, either. It does bring the more clutch quarterback in C.J. Stroud, who despite his rookie status has a 122.8 passer rating when tied or trailing late in games. This line flipped from the open for a reason.

Nico Collins is fully healthy while the other key Houston receivers are not. Collins shredded the Colts for seven catches, 146 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting. Look for C.J. Stroud to rely on Collins in this must-win spot as the third-year Michigan product clears this prop total.

Texans slot corner Desmond King doesn't make a lot of plays on the ball, but he is a sure tackler. That's allowed him to rack up 30 combined stops in his last three games. King was cut by Houston at the end of training camp, then re-joined the team in November. He's making the most of his opportunity and I like him to register at least seven combined tackles.

The eccentric journeyman QB has clipped this total six times this season, and there were at least 47 points scored in every game in which he managed this feat. With the game total and a stylistic matchup lending itself to an up-tempo affair, look for Minshew to clip this number again as the Texans focus on slowing down Indy's powerful running game.

The Colts and Texans are both entertaining teams that are like at least one year ahead of schedule in what appeared to be nearly wholesale rebuilds. The spread suggests a near dead-even matchup but the home-field edge amid such high stakes and a couple key on-field factors favor Indy. In their first matchup. rookie sensation C.J. Stroud threw for 384 yards and two TDS, but also was sacked six times and lost a fumble that gave the Colts a short field in their 31-20 victory. Indy also ran for 123 yards against a solid Houston rush defense and Gardner Minshew, filling in for injured rookie Anthony Richardson, had a rare turnover-free performance. Back the slight home underdog.

The Texans are a great story, but they have hit 25 points once in their last 7 games. Indy will pound JTaylor, and as 25, 26 are essentially dead numbers, I think the Texans will stay under.

Texans TE Dalton Schultz should command targets from CJ Stroud in this game. Houston is without WR's Tank Dell and Noah Brown, so after WR Nico Collins, Schultz is the next best pass-catcher on the team. He should fare well against the Colt's defense, which runs zone coverage at one of the highest rates in the league. Look for Schultz to sit down in the soft middle of that coverage, and take what the defense gives him for easy chunks of yards.

Devin Singletary is the clear lead back in this offense as indicated by his rushing attempt total which is in the 15 range. On top of that he's been getting at least 3 receptions over the last few games to add to his yardage total. The Texans are down a couple big weapons in Tank Dell and Noah Brown and they'll be even more reliant on Singletary (and Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz) in a high scoring affair. The Colts rush defense has been up and down lately, but they are certainly vulnerable to a big rushing day.

We should see Dameon Pierce play some role in the running back rotation. Devin Singletary is the clear cut RB1 but he's been a work horse the past few weeks. Typically when we see this amount of carries from Singletary, we see major regression in the week to follow. Pierce just needs to get 15% of carries (4) at even his low 3.1 ypc to get near the number.

Stroud threw a season high 47 times in the first meeting with Colts. I project he throws it 35+ here. Texans run game remains volatile and their young play caller doesn't have real conviction in it (and passing with a young QB gets you a head coach gig!). In controlled environments Stroud is over this in 5 of 9 games. Colts are better vs the run, Texans have big advantage at QB and their offense is sustained by the rookie QB. No reason not to keep the ball in his hands. I think its a close game and he is throwing for four quarters, even if it's more high-percentage than usual. Nearly hit it last week in first game in 3 weeks

The Colts pass rush at home gives me a little pause in playing Stroud passing totals for the game, and I wonder if they have to recalibrate to some shorter stuff over the course of four quarters in a must-win game. But he shredded these defense in the first meeting with a bevvy of 25+ yard plays and I have a hard time thinking he doesn't spring one to Nico Collins for 40 or more in this one against a lagging secondary

It is really impressive that the Texans are a single win away from a 10 win season and Nico Collins has racked up 1,100 receiving yards in just 14 games. Both Collins and rookie QB CJ Stroud have exceeded all expectations and they will look to do it again in a pivotal AFC South showdown where both teams are playing for a playoff berth. Since week 12, the Colts lead the league in Cover 3 rate. This bodes extremely well for Collins as he feasted against Cover 3 this season with a 3.45 YPRR, in addition to 27.3% first read share. Look for Collins to continue to operate as CJ Stroud's WR1 and find plenty of soft spots against the Colts subpar pass defense.

C.J. Stroud threw for 384 yards in the first matchup with Indianapolis, and I like him to go way over this prop total. Nico Collins looked fully healthy last week, giving Stroud a legit No. 1 wideout. It's a terrific matchup versus Gus Bradley's zone scheme. The Colts' run defense has stiffened lately, which should force Stroud into a high-volume passing game.

The Texans and Colts put their seasons on the line, with the winner securing a playoff berth and the loser going home. This Colts team has overachieved all season. They are above .500, yet have a negative point differential. They are a 9-7 team that projects more like 7-9. Colts QB Gardner Minshew is a turnover liability, and Houston has a scrappy defense under head coach Demeco Ryans, that can neutralize Indy's run game. I believe that Texans standout rookie QB CJ Stroud can go on the road and prove he is ready for the big moment. He should be able to pick apart the Colts zone-heavy defense with little resistance.

The way you defeat the Texans is through the air not the ground game as Houston has an excellent rush defense. While that may also translate to the under in rush yards as opposed to carries, I prefer the under in carries to protect myself against a singular long run. Zack Moss has been practicing and is likely back for this game and he should get some work. I think the Texans will also be run heavier than people think and that could also limit possessions by a small margin. Either way, this number should be 16.5 now that Zack Moss appears to be healthy.

Colts defense has been getting better against the pass, so even with Stroud back, Houston will want to utilize their run game this week. Singletary is coming off a big performance against the Titans: 16 carries and 80 yards. While he only has 3 TD's recorded this year, there are some incentives for him. Singletary will receive $125,000 for playing 50% of the snaps and can garner another $125,000 for 55% of the snaps. He is currently at 52%. 3% more and he gets Another $125K. Look for Stroud to feed him the ball and why not at the goal line?

Run defense is a strength for the Texans but inside the RZ things suffer. They have allowed 18 rushing TDs, 6th most in the NFL, and have allowed one in 8 of the last 9 games. Taylor missed the 1st game with Houston but has 6 TDs in 5 games against them and has scored in 5 straight games and there isn't anyone to poach him here in a must-win game. Baker Mayfield has been middling the last six weeks and I see 20-plus carries for Taylor and heavy work in critical special situations (short yards/goal to go).

Collins went off back in Week 2 vs Colts in CJ Stroud's first epic performance. Part of that may have been due to having Tank Dell also running wild, but Dell being now also probably means even more targets for Collins (who has 29 more than any healthy Texan from Stroud). Collins had 3 catches of 25+ in the first meeting and five of 23+ as Stroud rolled up 384 passing yards. This is a road game, but Texans have no consistent run game and hard to see them taking the ball out of Stroud's hands vs a D he's already shredded. Collins is the downfield guy now. Colts are just 23rd in pressure rate since Week 12. If Stroud has time he'll go off.

This is effectively the first round of the playoffs for these teams, and both had identical yards per play differentials last week against bad teams. But I'm worried that the Colts defense gave up five yards per play and four 50+ yard drives against a mediocre Raiders offense, while the Houston defense stepped up against Derrick Henry and completely shut down Tennessee. On the offensive side, the Texans clearly have the edge with C.J. Stroud healthy and Gardner Minshew showing no week-to-week consistency. I have the Texans as projected favorites, so I love getting even odds on the money line.