This feels like a game where the Steelers and Bengals could adjust to the mean, particularly with Ja’Marr Chase sidelined for Cincinnati. However, Pittsburgh has shown nothing to instill confidence in its offense, and one must believe the Bengals have a better plan to protect Jake Browning and stop the Steelers run compared to their first meeting. Mason Rudolph is 0-1-1 as a starter since 2020 with Mike Tomlin thinking so little of him that he was starting Mitch Trubisky. Rudolph has been a turnover machine, and Cincy thrives with extra possessions. Meanwhile, Browning will be up against a secondary featuring backup safeties. The best play is Bengals -2.5 (-120 or better), but that’s not available here. See if you can get it by kickoff.

Tanner Hudson has been a beneficiary of the Jake Browning takeover. He's getting just over four targets a game and has become a comfortable figure for Browning. With Ja'Marr Chase out, he should see even more action. Our Sportsline Model has him projected for 34 yards.

While the world has been lining up against Mike Tomlin, credit the Steelers coach for realizing the folly of trusting Mitch Trubisky at QB and instead turning the reins to Mason Rudolph, whose presence should have negated the need to ever acquire Trubisky. Rudolph didn't fare badly when called upon to relieve Big Ben in past seasons, and will grasp this chance to make a last stand. The Steelers are also the last team to beat Cincy four weeks ago, slowing Jake Browning, and the Bengals caught a few breaks to collar the Vikings at the wire last week. Cincy might be able to extend a margin on the road with Joe Burrow, but not so sure with Browning. Play Steelers

The wheels appear to be falling off fast for a Steelers team that has lost three straight, two by double figures. But the last time they won it was at Cincinnati as a 2.5-point favorite. Now they are a 3-point underdog and, despite the Bengals' recent surge, they will be without their best offensive weapon and needed a frantic comeback to top Minnesota last week. Expect a desperate Pittsburgh team to put up a fight and find a way to cover in a predictably ugly game.

Jake Browning is like Joe Cool 2.0, averaging over 300 yards passing over the team's three-game winning streak. The Steelers won the first matchup 16-10, however that was their last win. Pittsburgh has now lost 3 in a row and this could be Mike Tomlin's first losing season. Bengals will be without Ja’Marr Chase but they still have weapons. In Chase's absence, Tee Higgins had a couple of scores and Tyler Boyd should get more targets. Doesn't matter who is at QB, I don't trust the Steelers offense to produce.

Pittsburgh hands the reins to QB Mason Rudolph, who has never had less talent in the huddle as a Steeler. The team has lost three in a row outright, failing to cover in each. The Bengals have thrived with their understudy QB, Jake Browning, with three victories consecutively against good-to-very-good competition. He must overcome the absence of injured WR Ja'Marr Chase, which still affords him more help at the skill positions than Rudolph has with Pittsburgh. The big big is a tradeoff for getting to lay fewer than three points.

Jaylen Warren is finally starting to see an increase in workload relative to running mate Najee Harris. Last week we still saw Najee with more rushing attempts, but Warren was the clear option in the receiving department. Warren was also far more efficient with his 10 rushing attempts than Najee was with his 12. I see Warren eclipsing 10 rushing attempts and getting enough work in the passing game to eclipse this combined total.

The Steelers have burned me more than any NFL team this season (but those were on ML) -- it is hard sometimes to not bet the uniform/coach. Keep thinking "It's the Steelers and Mike Tomlin, they will figure it out." Not really. This is their season, though, without question and maybe Tomlin's home finale amid some rumors. Think the team will be a bit energized with the popular Mason Rudolph under center. No Ja'Marr Chase or top run-stopper DJ Reader for the Bengals, who already are on pace to allow more rushing yards in AFC North games than any team in the division’s history. The Steelers won the first matchup thanks to 153 yards on the ground.

After three straight ugly losses, I'm ready to buy low on the Steelers. Mason Rudolph takes over for Mitchell Trubiksy at QB, which I actually feel is an upgrade. After allowing 30 or more points, under Mike Tomlin the Steelers are 26-10 ATS the following week. He is known for being a great motivator. Tomlin has finished with a record of .500 or better in 16 straight seasons, and this game's result may very well decide if that streak continues. Jake Browning has become a fan favorite, but he doesn't deserve to be a road favorite here. He will be without his best weapon, Jamarr Chase. Bengals star DT DJ Reader is also out, which may open the run game for Pittsburgh.

Freiermuth hasn't seen nearly enough of the football since Kenny Pickett got hurt but this would be the perfect spot to get him more action. Mason Rudolph can't be as inept as MVP Mitch, right? He caught 9 of 11 balls for 120 yards in the previous meeting with the Bengals. Bengals have allowed 1015 yards to TEs, 57 more than any team, and all we need is one intermediate seam route to get us home.

Hudson has emerged as a go-to guy for Browning. Only Ja'Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd got more targets than Hudson since Browning took over for Joe Burrow and Hudson is catching a ridiculous 90% of his passes and clearly has earned the QBs trust. He has four or more catches in three of the last four games and two in the other.

Browning was clearly still figuring some things out in his first NFL start, when he last faced the Steelers. It didn't go well, but he still completed 74% of his passes and came fairly close to this number (227 yards). Browning is at 275+ in each of the last three games, including against some defenses way better than this. PIT is 22 vs the pass and is just 30th in pressure rate generated the last 5 weeks. Browning when not pressured: 86/107 (80%), 8.8/attempt with a 107.1 rating. Weather forecast looks just fine for throwing the ball. Even without Chase, I seem Zac Taylor wanting to still push the ball downfield. They aren't changing their spots here

The Steelers dominated the Bengals in Week 12, outgaining them by nearly 200 yards as two-point favorites in Cincy. The last three weeks have been diametric opposites for these teams, with some talking about Jake Browning as a top-32 QB and the Steelers getting upset by two 2-10 teams and beat up by the Colts. That's swung this line by over eight points when you factor in home-field advantage, and that's just too much for me. The Bengals lost D.J. Reader, giving the Steelers the ability to better lean on the run game and not put Mason Rudolph into bad situations. This line may go up with Rudolph now announced as starter, so wait to see if you can get +3.