Denver's defense has made some real strides after getting absolutely torched over the first quarter of the season. Offensively the Broncos burn more clock and play at one of the slowest tempos in the league. Detroit also wants to lean heavily on their elite RB tandem and as a result I expect the clock to be running and this total seems too high.

The Broncos defense has improved over the latter portion of the season, but a deeper dive shows that Denver has largely taken advantage of backup quarterbacks and handicapped offenses. Detroit presents neither. The Lions are also at home where they and Jared Goff have performed much better. Entering on a short week playing their third straight road game, the Broncos will not have the offensive firepower to keep up. They also run to open the pass, which falls right into the wheelhouse of the Lions' ninth-ranked rush defense. I do wish we could avoid the hook here and would be in favor of -4 (-120) if available, but it's also possible Detroit pulls away entirely in the second half.

Both teams will look to run the ball. The Lions need to offset shaky pass protection that allowed 4 sacks last week and attack the weakness of the Denver defense. The Broncos prefer a plodding offensive style that is run-heavy and limits possessions for both teams. The Under has some value at this key number plus the hook.

This is a great matchup for David Montgomery as Denver gives up an NFL-high 5.1 yards per carry. Montgomery only got 10 carries last week because Detroit trailed in Chicago. I expect the Lions to be playing from ahead Saturday and for Montgomery to get a bigger workload.

The smart spread play is probably to take the +4.5 but I have a lot of irons in the fire and really don't want to worry about some late backdoor TD to lose ATS. I bet differently. Do think that the Broncos are playing their first true road game in a dome matters some. Yes, they played at the Chargers last week but the Bolts have zero home-field advantage in terms of fan support. There will definitely be some boozed-up loud Lions fans for a rare Saturday night game. I know two for sure simply as my buddies are going LOL. Detroit should have its full offensive line intact for the first time in a while with center Frank Ragnow expected back from injury.

Second week in a row that the Broncos are road underdogs against a team that's traveling in the wrong direction. Now, the Lions are a much better squad than the Chargers, but there are some similarities in how the defense is starting to play. Expect the Broncos to go on the road once again and ride off into the sunset with a victory.

The Lions have one of the most potent offenses in the league, they can certainly outpace Denver. The problem is the defense can't stop anything. Detroit has given up 28 points in two straight games! On the other hand, the Broncos have won six of their last seven and have covered five of those. Russell Wilson has looked pretty dang-russ since week 8, especially paired with Courtland Sutton who has 10 TD's on the season. Take, er, Ride with the points on this one.

The Lions have won three of their last five but they’re 2.5-points away from being 0-5 ATS in those games. The defense hasn’t been good and the offense is showing some weaknesses. Meanwhile, the Broncos are playing a brand of football driven by the run, meshed with Russell Wilson slinging the football and managing it all together, defended by a defense that has played playoff football for the last seven weeks. The Broncos have stayed Under in seven of their last eight games and won and covered six of their last seven. The Broncos are trending upwards. Broncos to cover.

Gibbs played 63% of the Lions' snaps last week, and he's played the majority of snaps in 4 of 5 games since David Montgomery came back from injury. It's easy to see why: he's much more explosive than Montgomery and nearly as physical. Don't get me wrong, having Montgomery there definitely creates some risk -- he's out-carried Gibbs in 3 of those 5 games, but Gibbs is averaging 5.6 yards per carry in his past 5. The best part about all this is that the Broncos run defense has allowed 5.3 yards per rush in its past five games and 5.5 yards per carry on the season. With the Lions offensive line close to full strength, this sets up for the perfect short-week home-game situation.

Was waiting to see how close to 2:1 this might get, and this is close enough. Denver is the better team right now, the more complete team, and the more confident team. I'd prefer the fading Lions more on the road than at home. Broncos brand of TOP=based bully ball plays well on the road and as a dog. Denver has allowed 2nd fewest offensive TDs since Week 7; Lions allow 28.7/G since then (31st). Russ is the better 4th qtr QB and protects the ball better. Sean Payton has this team believing and finding ways to win games. Lions look like just the opposite. We keep riding the Broncos ML train.

These two sides are headed in completely opposite directions as the season nears its conclusion. The Lions are not the Lions of September and October, with the defense looking ordinary since midseason and Jared Goff regressing back to old bad habits at QB. Detroit is a couple of plays away from a four-game losing streak and succumbed meekly to the Bears last week. Meanwhile Denver has developed a nasty edge since midseason, especially a now-punishing defense, while the Russell Wilson-to-Courtland Sutton connection looks good for a TD every week. Getting what looks like the better team at the moment at this sort of price on the Money Line is too good to ignore. Play Broncos on ML

How much timeshare each back gets continues to be tough to figure. Bottom line with Goff a turnover machine lately and the passing game out of sync and Detroit's defense a major problem, how is this not a heavy run game? Dan Campbell and Sean Payton trying to out road grade the other. Broncos last vs the rush and Montgomery is over this in 4 of 5 games since returning from injury. Toss up for me between the carries and rushing yards but I'm leaning yards with Gibbs maybe cutting into the attempts.

He is going to see plenty of the ball and we've been burned too many times before playing the rushing side or the receiving side, depending on the match-up. Broncos defense is horrible against the run and with Montgomery also a big presence, we're going scrimmage. He's third in NFL in scrimmage yards and averages 5.7/touch. Broncos 32nd in YPC allowed. So much potential for explosion plays to put us way over this. Playing at 100+ in alt markets.

They are giving us too much return not to keep riding this. Has hit 10 times this season and again last week. It's not opening at +225 anymore but the Lions pass defense is sagging and this is the guy Russ looks to when it all matters. It's hit in the 7 of the last 8 games. Sutton's target share and overall role in the offense wouldn't suggest this kind of TD output ... but who are we to doubt it at this point? He has 10 TDs and no one else on the team even has 5. Have to keep riding it. Will be perfect conditions in the dome, His height is a problem for DBs.

This is the worst possible spot for the Broncos. Even though they've won six of seven, they're playing their third straight road game on a short week. They continue to be extremely conservative in an effort to limit mistakes. That will make it hard to keep up with a Lions offense that usually clicks at home. Denver gives up an NFL-high 5.1 yards per carry, which sets up well for David Montgomery (4.8 ypc) and Jahmyr Gibbs (5.4 ypc). Russell Wilson would love to pick on corner Jerry Jacobs like every other QB has, but the Lions finally benched him for Kindle Vildor. Jared Goff is much better at home (99.6 passer rating, 69.8 completion percentage, 7.7 yards per attempt) than on the road.

This number of 47 won’t last. Grab it now. Denver is now officially a very tough D and Detroit has lost it’s mojo on offense. When Denver has the ball expect a rock fight with plenty of rush att and few deep shots. Under.

Since righting its defense in Oct, DEN has not played a road game 46 and 3 of the last 4 are under 39. They are 2nd in NFL in offensive TDs allowed Since Week 7 (11), and they still struggle to top 21 points themselves. They are under in 7 of 8 and in all none of their last 8 games are over 46. Lions are leaning even more into running the ball and that's where Denver is vulnerable. I'll take that. Goff is coughing u the ball killing drives and DEN is the No. 1 takeaway team in the league. Russ wins games throwing for under 225 yards, DEN is just 26th in the RZ and Sean Payton not averse to 35 runs, either.