Mahomes has a median of 39 attempts. His team needs this one, Buffalo plays fast, and Pacheco is out. Let’s go over

Since we have a new OC in Buffalo Cook has 16 and 17 carries respectively. I’ll pay to find out if he will regress to 11 or less. Like his yards and pass props too

The Chiefs' defensive effort last week was massively disappointing, but it was likely a blip from a unit that held the best offenses it has faced this season to 17.5 points on average. Most important for Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes is that Rashee Rice as emerged as a reliable pass catcher, which should serve the offense well down the stretch. Plus, Travis Kelce is primed for a bounce-back performance. Not having Isaiah Pacheco is an issue, but Jerrick McKinnon has often thrived when given extra carries. The Bills are on an 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS streak away from home (their only road win was at Washington), and Buffalo is 0-2 ATS as underdogs this season.

Since the Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, running back James Cook has gotten 33 carries in two games. The Chiefs are bottom-5 against the run, giving up 4.8 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Cook has cleared this prop total in five of his last seven games. In what should be a tight contest, look for Cook to rush for 50-plus yards.

Buffalo is 6-6 and ranks 11th in the playoff race in the AFC. This is as must-win as it gets, but that doesn't mean the Bills will win, especially playing the best team in the AFC on its home field. The Chiefs are still the defending champs, with a team that I think is as good or better than last year's. Kansas City at 8-4 still has a lot to play for, and its home field is one of the loudest in the NFL. If these two rosters were even, the Chiefs should be -3. Buffalo did win at K.C. last year, but that was a revenge game from the 2022 playoff loss. I'm taking Mahomes to come through with a big win.

The Patrick Mahomes-Josh Allen duels have been lopsided -- and not in the direction you might think. Allen's dominance is reflected in the interceptions count -- four for the Chief, none for the Bill. Given K.C.'s relative offensive malaise, the absence of injured RB Isiah Pacheco is a two-for-one loss; he ranks fifth in NFL rushing and has 33 receptions. The Chiefs' defense, stout all season, has regressed the past two weeks. Buffalo comes off a bye, a scenario in which it is 6-0 straight-up under coach Sean McDermott. Saddled with a 6-6 record, the Bills figure to play with a sense of desperation.

Shakir has been over this total in 5 of his past 6, so why the under now? I'm concerned his playing time will nosedive with strong tight end Dawson Knox coming back to the Bills offense this week. Since Knox's departure, both Shakir and Dalton Kincaid have emerged as reliable targets in the Buffalo offense. But Kincaid offers much more versatility as a big-bodied target for Josh Allen -- he's had a much higher target share and a much higher route per dropback rate than Shakir in each of their past five. Kincaid should stick around, Knox will work as both an extra blocker and receiver, and Shakir will play only in obvious passing situations where he'll contend for targets with everyone.

No Isiah Pacheco for the Chiefs means their run game is down to Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon. Edwards-Helaire hasn't been right since his rookie year and McKinnon is just as much a contributor as a receiver as he is as a rusher. And this figures to be a high-scoring game regardless, so odds are Mahomes will have to throw a bunch. Here's a fun fact: Mahomes has thrown at least 38 passes in each of his past four meetings against the Bills including the playoffs. I'm expecting a fifth such occasion this week and would play this up to 36.5 attempts.

Since making the change at offensive coordinator, the Bills have become more run-centric and Cook gets plenty of action. He has at least 20 touches in the two games with Joe Brady calling plays and coming out of a bye on the road, knowing INTs will kill then and facing the NFL's 28th ranked run defense, I see Cook over 20 touches east. He averages 5 a carry and makes things happen in space in the screen game. I will put this 100+ in alt markets and in some SGPs. Him getting 50 on the ground and through the air doesn't feel like a stretch to me at all. He's hit 100 or more scrimmage yards in three straight games.

The Bills have had one of the most balanced and conservative offenses since they parted ways with offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Cook has averaged 16.5 rushing attempts and has been the focal point of Buffalo's offense despite difficult matchups against the Eagles and Jets. That won't be the case Sunday, as Cook and the Bills take on a sub-par Chiefs run defense. Kansas City's defense is 31st in EPA allowed per rush and 32nd in run stop win rate. I expected this number to open in the mid-50's, so this is one of my favorite props on the board for Week 14.

We've been riding this prop for a while and they aren't giving plus money anymore, but this is still a nice price. His legs are a decent part of their offense and his tackles can be iffy and he is ready to go. All these drops balls must have him thinking just take off and run for the first down. He has 6 rushes or more in four of his 6 home games, and is over this in three of the last four games and had 4 carries in the other game. Josh Allen will be running around too and these two will be trying to outdo the other.

I think Week 12 was a harbinger of what's to come for Allen running the ball down the stretch. They held back on the designed runs and option stuff but it's always there and Allen is showing more willingness to take off and go since they made the coordinator change. It's must-win times, and KC is 28th vs. the run. Allen ran 9 times for 81 yards in Week 12, and he is over this total in four of the five road games this season. We've seen Mahomes lean more into the run game in recent weeks and Allen will be just as eager to extend drives with his legs.

Josh Allen off a bye with the season on the line, makes me think about his scrambling prowess. Allen has a rushing TD in five of the last six games, with six total TDs in that span. He's coming off a season high in rushes and two rushing TDs at Philly. Their regular run game tends to bog down a bit in the redzone and James Cook isn't a finisher and would you go to Latavius Murray over Allen with a drive on the line? Me neither. KC's run D is bad and Allen could give them fits.

I love the fight that the Bills showed against the Eagles a few weeks ago. Coming off of the bye, they'll be tough. On the other side, a heartbreaking loss in Green Bay really highlighted some of the ongoing issues with the Chiefs. I expect them to lean on their run game and defense in a close one.

Travis Kelce has been averaging 81.9 receiving yards in his last ten games, even though he had two recent sub-par performances. Kelce gained 444 receiving yards (88.8 per game) in his past five meetings against the Buffalo Bills. In the past, the Bills' teams had healthier players on their defense. According to my model, he is projected to achieve at least 79 receiving yards. Play Over 68.5 receiving yards!

The Chiefs suffered an early scare vs. the Raiders before realizing who they were, and that's a team that's a tier above the Bills and playing at home here. The offense looked good against Vegas and Rashee Rice is emerging as the No. 1 receiver Patrick Mahomes has desperately needed. The Chiefs defense has been shaky over the last two weeks on the road but held Miami and Philadelphia under 300 yards at home in the two games prior. They can have similar success here, neutralize the Bills pass rush and get enough stops on defense to win. This line should be on the other side of 3.

While in years past this would be an automatic over both teams have found it difficult to attack downfield and as a result KC and BUF have had far more conservative offenses. NE and BUF mirror each other in a lot of ways and have been running the football more than ever and I expect that to be the case on Sunday night as James Cook and Isaiah Pacheco have both been effective and as a result, their roles in the offenses continue to grow. I believe we see both teams implement a balanced approach and we see a lot of long drives rather than explosive downfield passing.