I’ve admittedly been back and forth on this game, primarily waiting for the line to shift. Instead, it remains stagnant with kickoff approaching. While the home teams in this rivalry generally have the advantage, Dak Prescott has largely been successful against the Eagles (8-3 ATS). The Cowboys’ attacking defense could make life difficult for Jalen Hurts, who is clearly dealing with a knee issue preventing him from being as electric as usual. The Eagles have struggled against the pass this year, and I maintain their only notable win (vs. Dolphins) came due horrendously uneven officiating. Philadelphia is one of the two best teams in football, but Dallas should prevail with a needed win Sunday.

Who have the Cowboys really beaten this season (and both losses are away)? Yes, Dak Prescott has owned Philly of late but he has only faced off against Jalen Hurts once. Hurts has won 11 straight regular-season games vs. teams that enter with a winning record, among the longest NFL streaks ever. We'll risk the push instead of a moneyline play.

If you think this leans to a high-scoring game and you are inclined to think Dallas will continue to struggle to run the ball, and Dak is dropping back a bunch, well this match-up has to stand out. Eagles really struggle in the slot and Lamb does his best work there. Attacking Philly over the middle is the way to go. Bank on at least one or two explosive plays in the mix to get us over.

There are two great receivers for the Philadelphia Eagles but lately we've only seen one. I think that changes a bit today as A.J. Brown will simply command a ton of well deserved attention. With Jalen Hurts likely staying in the pocket more to protect his knee, I expect plenty of targets to both of his primary receivers and I expect him to take some shots downfield to DeVonta Smith in the highest projected total of the main slate.

The pattern stays the same with the Cowboys, who turn into a fantasy owner's favorite team several times each season when invariably running up a score against bad opponents (yes, Rams, you qualify as much right now). But we have seen too much of Dak Prescott in recent years to expect him to rise to the occasion in a real crucial game (witness the complete disappearing act a few weeks ago vs. the 49ers at Santa Clara), as this one is for the Cowboys if they harbor dreams about being anything other than a wild card team in the NFC. Play Eagles

Lamb is starting to heat up. He dominated the Rams last week, catching 12 of 14 targets for 158 yards and two touchdowns. After having just one 100-yard performance over the Cowboys’ first five games, he has at least 117 receiving yards in back-to-back contests. The Eagles have allowed the third-most receiving yards in the league to wide receivers, making this a great opportunity to take the over for Lamb.

If the Cowboys are to make Sunday's game against the Eagles close, they'll need a big day out of their #1 wide receiver. Lamb is Dallas' primary slot receiver and oh by the way, Philadelphia has allowed the most receiving yards to slot receivers this season, including 95 to the Commanders' Jamison Crowder last week. The Eagles are hemorrhaging yards to opposing WRs, in part because of game flow, so I fully expect Lamb to cross the 80 yard mark on Sunday.

The home team is on an 8-1 ATS run in this series, and I like that to continue Sunday. Philly will get Jalen Carter back, while Cowboys left tackle Tyron Smith (neck) remains iffy. He did not practice again Thursday. His backup, Chumo Edoga, is dealing with ankle and knee injuries. I've been betting a lot of teams right before their bye, as it tends to be an extremely focused spot. Philly has gone 7-0 SU and ATS in its last seven before a regular-season bye. Dallas' last three road performances haven't been impressive: a 3-point win over the Chargers, blowout loss at San Francisco, 12-point loss at Arizona. Lay the field goal.

The Philadelphia Eagles have had difficulties defending wide receivers this season, allowing the most fantasy points in this category. To take advantage of this weakness, CeeDee Lamb will likely be lining up in the slot. Running against Philly's defense is challenging, as they only allow an average of 65.5 rushing yards per game. As a result, Dak Prescott will probably focus on passing and throwing the ball frequently. My model projects for 81 yards.

Swift has been firmly entrenched as the Eagles RB1 since Week 2. He is averaging 81 rushing yards per game since then and averages a very healthy 4.9 yards per carry. Swift, who handled 16 of 18 Eagles rushing attempts last week, has eclipsed this line in six of his last seven games. The Dallas defense has been mostly great but has been a bit vulnerable to opposing running backs. Dallas has a ferocious pass rush and leads the NFL in nearly every pass-rushing metric. In order to mitigate that, I expect the Eagles to take a balanced approach and that we'll see Swift handle 14-17 rushing attempts. Look for Swift to get plenty of opportunities in a game that projects to be highly competitive.

It’s crazy this didn’t hit last week with, somehow, a Tush Push fumble. Won’t happen again. Hurts may look a little less than perfect physically, but we know he is up for it whenever needed in short yardage and he was in great form last week at Washington. Huge game with all hands on deck and no reason to pass on the most money short yardage play in football around paydirt. He didn’t reach up 32 career rushing TDs by taking weeks off from getting attempts around the goal line.

The Eagles are the league's last remaining one-loss team, but they're not playing like it. Jalen Hurts' injury is sapping his rushing ability, a key component of the Eagles offense, and the team ranks 24th in interception rate. That's not ideal going up against a Cowboys defense that's first in interception rate and has dominated multiple games this season. The biggest concern for the Eagles is their pass defense, and Dak Prescott looked fantastic last week. Dallas is playing better on both sides of the ball right now, so I'll take the full field goal here, even in Philly.