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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
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Texans rookie wideout Tank Dell should be heavily involved Sunday, as starting wideout Robert Woods is out. Dell drew four targets and had three catches before suffering a concussion against the Falcons in Week 5. He's still averaging six targets over his last four games.
This battle of the top two rookie QBs should produce some fireworks. Not only will they be motivated to outperform each other, but the Panthers have the NFL's worst scoring defense and Texans have allowed their share of production to capable offensive units.
This should be decent spot for top overall pick Bryce Young and the Panthers to get their first win against an upstart Houston club that is a little overvalued in this line. The Panthers are well-rested off a bye and Young will be motivated to show he was worthy of the top pick as his counterpart, Houston's CJ Stroud, has gotten plenty of praise for his breakthrough season.
These two rookie QBs each had arguments as the best in the draft, and I expect both to bring their A game today. The Panthers have given up 37-plus points in three of their last four games, and while all of those came against top offenses, Houston has been very good in the passing game all year. The Carolina offense should have a new look with Thomas Brown calling plays, and though Houston has held four straight opponents to 21 points or less, they gave up 400-plus yards in three of those games. Both teams should get to the 20s and push this over.
I think the Panthers get their first win this weekend. Bryce Young has been far better in his last three games than he was in his first two starts. The last three games featured two road games at Miami and at Detroit with the third at home versus Minnesota. In the last three games he completed 65% of his passes for 6.0 yards per pass, four TD's with two interceptions. In his first three games he completed 59%, 4.2 yards per pass, two TD’s and 2 Ints. The Panther defense is allowing 16 less points per game at home than on the road. Houston has wins over New Orleans, Pittsburgh and at Jacksonville. Their losses were at Atlanta, at Baltimore and the Colts.
Tank Dell had a bye last week and sat out with a concussion the week prior, but he is back and in a great spot against a very vulnerable Carolina secondary. Prior to the injury, Dell hit this number in 3 of 4 games thanks to being a primary downfield target for CJ Stroud. Tank Dell's target and air yard share is elite for a WR2 and while I expect Nico Collins to also enjoy some success, I'm targeting Tank Dell on Sunday.
Tank Dell is having an impressive rookie season and will be returning to Houston's lineup today after suffering a concussion in Week 5. Dell is likely to assume an every down role and may even see a bump in targets considering Robert Woods will be inactive as well. This is an excellent matchup against a Panthers secondary that has given up the second most explosive plays in the league this season and is banged up as well. Look for Dell to make a big impact.
Both of these teams have holes on defense and that's particularly true with the Panthers who can't seem to stop the run or the pass (and are particularly injured in the secondary). The Texans have inefficient options at the RB position and I expect CJ Stroud to exploit the secondary with young weapons Nico Collins and Tank Dell. I also expect a slightly more efficient Bryce Young against a beatable Texans secondary. Both teams coming off a bye should also produce greater efficiency on the offensive end.
Can't pass up on a plus money bet like this. CJ Stroud has hit this in 4 of his last 5 starts. Carolina shouldn't give him too tough of a time as they allow the 9th most passing touchdowns in the league. This game will be ignited by a little extra motivation as both rookies look to prove themselves. I don't see Stroud letting off the gas in this spot.
Houston QB C.J. Stroud has buried fellow early draft pick Bryce Young of Carolina -- as well as many others -- in the Rookie of the Year race. He can put an exclamation point on it against a secondary torn asunder by injury, even after a Panthers bye week. The Texans' defense has surrendered just 14.3 ppg in the last four outings, so a Carolina switch in play-calling might not pay immediate dividends. Carolina is the lone team that has yet to cover. It likely will need a spread larger than this one before it happens.
Did the Panthers blow it taking Bryce Young over CJ Stroud? Too early to tell ... but heck yes so far. This will be the first game in the common draft era to feature the Top 3 picks of the same year's draft in those two and Will Anderson. I mean, the Panthers aren't going 0-17 right? HC Frank Reich handed over offensive play-calling during the bye week. Can't hurt. Houston has struggled offensively in two of three road games. Feels like a 23-20 game, which so happens to be the SL model's forecast.
I've been waiting to bet on the Carolina Panthers without Frank Reich's play-calling. Offensive coordinator Thomas Brown has taken the reins, and the Houston Texans have no idea what the Panthers' offensive will look like. The Texans have a negative yard differential (outgained 430-297 in defeating New Orleans before their bye week), while the Panthers are a sneaky good team despite their 0-6 record. Carolina has a solid third-down defense, ranking fourth in the league, and an efficient red zone offense, ranking tenth. On the other hand, the Texans are struggling in third-down defense, ranking 27th, and opponent passer rating, ranking 20th. Moreover, betting on winless home underdogs after their bye week has been very profitable.
This should be Bryce Young's best game. He has a more innovative playcaller now in Thomas Brown, the former Rams assistant who took over those duties from Frank Reich during the bye. He can build off two somewhat promising performances versus the Lions and Dolphins in which he threw for 464 yards and four touchdowns with two interceptions. And he's facing a Texans pass defense that plays predominantly zone. Young ranks 10th in completion percentage against zone coverage, compared to 38th against man. Finally, right guard Austin Corbett -- Carolina's best offensive lineman -- is slated to make his season debut following his recovery from a torn ACL. Grab the points.
These two teams come off a bye that should benefit both rookie QBs, but the Panthers made a more fundamental change that matters: giving OC Thomas Brown playcalling duties. Expect a step up for a Carolina offense that has struggled this year but gets to face a Texans defense that hasn't allowed more than 21 points in four straight yet gave up more than 400 yards in three of those games. Carolina was competitive in two home games but struggled to stop elite offenses in last three on road, which makes defense's stats look worse than they are. I don't think Houston, expected to be a basement team before the season, deserves to lay even three points yet, as much as I like them.
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