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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Understanding Public and Money
Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn and T.J. Hockenson all should soak up targets that went to Justin Jefferson, but don't forget about Brandon Powell. The 28-year-old Florida product was heavily involved after Jefferson got hurt last week, finishing with four catches on six targets for 43 yards. I like him to catch at least three passes Sunday versus the Bears' weak pass defense.
Provided the Vikings haven't chosen to mail it in, they are still the value side in this game, even minus star WR Justin Jefferson. Minnesota won both matchups last year by 23 combined points while allowing just 35 total points to the Bears. Chicago finally broke through in its last performance but that's far from a guarantee that it will build off that win.
Hold off on that eject button in the Windy City, as the Bears finally figured out a way to turn Justin Fields loose last Thursday in Landover. All good news and a brief reprieve, for the beleaguered combo of HC Matt Eberflus and OC Luke Getsy, who might have finally deduced that Fields is better off making plays on the move, perhaps making it easier to look downfield for big-play wideout DJ Moore, who torched the Washington defense for 230 yards worth of receptions in Chicago’s 40-20 win. With opponents now focusing on Moore, Fields might be expected to find more holes in enemy stop units and push the Bears toward a fifth straight over result.
Quality versus quantity missing. The Vikings take the field minus peerless WR Justin Jefferson. The Bears are shorn of virtually their entire RB room, with three of them out, notably top rusher Khalil Herbert. QB Justin Fields was vastly improved last week but, without a ground game, he could regress. Vikes QB Kirk Cousins is talented enough to figure out a Plan B without Jefferson. Chicago's recent win should not obscure the fact that it dropped the previous 14 games outright.
This is getting jacked all of a sudden w/o Justin Jefferson so I'm hitting it. Yes, I do mean Over.
Apologies, accidentally picked Under when clearly didn't mean that (appreciate heads up). All these props in our system are overwhelming. I almost did a punter prop! Will just repeat what I said: I actually made the horrific mistake of not starting DJ Moore in my main fantasy league in Week 5 when he went nuts against Washington. Naturally I lost. Just didn't trust Justin Fields enough yet but now I do after back-to-back great outings. Moore has topped 100 yards in three of his past four and the Vikings can't stop anyone. I am including rushing because it's only 2 more yards and the Bears are in bad shape at tailback injury wise, so maybe Moore get a reverse or jet sweep or two.
This line would've made sense leading into Week 4. But DJ Moore just exploded for double his projections in Weeks 4 and 5. The Vikings aren't exactly an intimidating defense, allowing 244 passing yards per game. There are close to zero options on the ground for Chicago this week. Look for the Bears to air it out to Justin Fields' only true target.
There will be a trickle down effect to Justin Jefferson's injury. While there are certainly bigger targets who will feel this impact more, this is still an under reaction for Josh Oliver's line. Jefferson has 30% of this offense's target share. Oliver can expect to get around 5% of that to add to his already 6%. We should see a decent amount of 2 TE sets from the Vikings as they look to keep this ball on the ground without their star. This allows a lot of opportunity on the field for Hill, our model projects him for 16 yards.
Although most fantasy analysts seem skeptical about Osborne's production ceiling amid the injury loss of Justin Jefferson, his performance history suggests he'll absorb his share of the 114 receiving yards (Jefferson's average) up for grabs during the star's absence. Minnesota's coaching staff and QB Kirk Cousins have exhibited trust in him. Last year against Chicago when Jefferson was rested early in advance of the playoffs, Osborn had 5 catches for 177 yards. He also clipped this number just last week with 5 receptions for 49 yards.
With the Vikings losing Jordan Jefferson, that takes a significant portion of their passing game away from Kirk Cousins. He'll have to quickly develop the trust with a talented rookie in Jordan Addison quickly. On the other side, the Bears defense found something in how they pressured Washington and they can pressure Cousins in the same way; and they will.
The Vikings are in trouble with Justin Jefferson (hamstring) now on IR. In his absence, expect them to rely more on Jordan Addison. The rookie has already provided some valuable stat lines, recording at least 52 receiving yards in four of five games. Combine the potential for added targets with a matchup against a Bears team that has given up the second-most passing yards per game in the league and Addison could blow past this over.
Justin Fields has performed much better the last two weeks, which has left DJ Moore with some stellar stat lines. He posted 130 receiving yards against the Broncos in Week 4, then followed it up with a whopping 230 receiving yards against the Commanders in Week 5. Now he will face a Vikings team that has allowed the most receptions and the most receiving yards in the league to opposing wide receivers. Expect another big day from Moore.
The Vikings shouldn't be favored over anyone by three points on the road as a team that 1) doesn't stop anyone and 2) always gets involved in pretty wild, close games. The Bears catching a full field goal at home with a mini bye after their blowout of the Commanders last Thursday look like a very good bet to keep this game close enough and maybe even pull off the win.
Justin Jefferson can only account for so many points. This total has come down from 47 points, and it feels like an overreaction to injury. The Vikings' true problems have come from red zone mistakes made by Kirk Cousins. Its not sustainable to continue to make that many red zone interceptions, the regression to the mean will actually be playing better. Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson are still strong play makers against a Bears defense who is allowing 30+ points to anyone willing to try. Not to mention, the Bears have put up 68 points the past 2 weeks, and will have to air out the ball against a strong Vikings run defense.
The Vikings get a soft landing spot for unveiling a pass offense without Justin Jefferson, as the Bears just gave up nearly 400 passing yards to the Commanders. The Chicago secondary has a chance to be much healthier this week, with multiple starters returning to practice Wednesday. A potentially windy game could also help the Chicago defense out if passing is more difficult than usual. The Chicago run offense can still be effective centered around Justin Fields and D'Onta Foreman if Roschon Johnson can't go. I have Chicago just a half-point out of the basement in my power ratings, yet I think this line should only be Vikings -1.5, so I like the value at +3, which is available at FanDuel as of Thursday.
Guess I have to back my Bears once this season. They will not face Justin Jefferson and the Chicago offense is rolling all of a sudden, plus Justin Fields & Co. are on a mini-bye having played Thursday in Week 5. Only DK still has +3. Half unit.