The Lions are the far better team on both sides of the ball here, even if they are down a couple playmakers. The Panthers have already notched two double-digit road losses and now go against a defense that should limit them further offensively than either of those prior opponents. Do I find comfort in taking Detroit to win by double digits in any game? No. Is it the right play Sunday? Yes.

The scrappy Panthers outplayed Minnesota most of the way last weekend and should have another opportunity for a close game Sunday. The Lions are without top WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and explosive rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs. Those losses will be felt, while Carolina is a little healthier than it was last week. Look for a one-score game.

Rookie Bryce Young has broken slowly out of the blocks, but his QB rating has improved each week. Against Detroit's shaky defense, he can take another step. He'll need to be on his toes against a rugged Lions pass rush. The Lions likely will miss two key injured players on offense, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and RB Jahmyr Gibbs. Carolina coach Fran Reich has failed to cover in just two of eight games as an underdog of at least a touchdown. A 10-point spot would be welcome, but this one appears stuck in single digits.

The way to attack the Lions’ defense is through the air. They have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game in the league, but they are middle of the pack in terms of passing yards allowed per game. The Panthers have already been relying heavily on Thielen, who has received at least eight targets in each of the last three games. He posted at least 54 receiving yards in each of those games, so give me the over here.

After sitting out Week 3 with a thigh injury, David Montgomery compiled 121 yards and three touchdowns on the ground in Week 4. He had 32 rushing attempts against the Packers, marking the second time in three games that he carried the ball at least 21 times. With Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) having been downgraded to doubtful Saturday, Montgomery could blow past the over on his rush attempts prop.

Interesting number considering Montgomery has topped this in each game and went WAY past it in two. Backup Jahmyr Gibbs likely will be used more as a receiver this week with Amon-Ra St. Brown probably sitting.

Sanders' playing time hit a season low 43% as he continued losing work not only on 3rd downs but also in the second-half to Chuba Hubbard last week. Sanders also seems impacted by a groin injury that kept his practices limited both this week and last week. His rushing average has dropped from 4.0 in Week 1 to 1.5 in Week 4. Detroit is great against the run, shedding just 2.9 yards per rush to opposing running backs, which ranks in the top three. Know how many running backs have had 60 total yards against Detroit this year? Answer: One -- Bijan Robinson had 60 on the dot.

What am I missing? The excellent rookie has easily topped this number in three straight and now the Lions might be without Amon-Ra St. Brown so that could lead to more targets for LaPorta.

The Lions are massive favorites against a Carolina team that has no juice offensively, and the gamescript should work against Jared Goff having a big passing day. The only one of Carolina's games where the opposing QB topped this number featured Andy Dalton at QB for the Panthers and was a shootout. Carolina's defense has seen the third fewest pass attempts in the NFL, and the Lions have run the ball more than they've thrown it. Goff's final numbers here should be similar to the Packers game where he had 210 yards on just 28 attempts.

The three games Bryce Young has started for Carolina have followed the same pattern, with the Panthers unable to score but the defense keeping them in each game. Carolina has just five offensive TDs in four games, but only two in Young's three starts. Detroit is capable of putting up 30+ points and doing the bulk of the work to get this over the total, but this profiles more like the workmanlike 20-6 win over the Falcons in Week 3 where the Lions were up 10 at halftime and went more conservative in the second half while letting their defense take care of business.

This is a pure mismatch: the Lions built this team in the trenches. Their stout offensive line will nullify the Panthers best defensive strength (the line). And the Lions defensive line will be a big-time problem for the Panthers offensive line. Homefield advantage isn't necessarily "a thing" the way it was in years past but Ford Field will be rocking with a bunch of Lions fans smelling blood in the water at 3-1 and wanting to see their team dominate at home fresh off a mini-bye and a butt-kicking of the Packers. Jared Goff is going to get Jameson Williams back earlier than expected, giving Detroit a vertical threat to go with the tough underneath weapons.

The Lions allow 3.0 yards per carry, and over the past two weeks they've notched 12 sacks. They smothered a limited Packers' offense last Thursday, and now they've got extra rest to prepare for Carolina rookie Bryce Young, who ranks 30th with a 75.0 passer rating. This will be Young's second road start. In his first road start, at Atlanta, he needed 38 attempts to produce 146 passing yards. He was intercepted twice in the 24-10 loss. Detroit's balanced offense is clicking and might get a few snaps from newly-reinstated wideout Jameson Williams. Look for Detroit to register its third straight dominant win.

The Panthers defense is coming off a solid game despite their injuries with just 14 points allowed, but the offense did nothing against a suspect Minnesota defense. Detroit's defense is much better, ranking fourth in yards per play, and they dominated two less questionable offenses the last two weeks. The Panthers defense is 29th in yards per rush, so this feels like a game Detroit can dictate with the run and keep the backdoor closed against a struggling Bryce Young. I have this line projected at Detroit -11 and love the value laying single digits.