The 49ers are in a value spot at this key number, which finally moved to +3 after hanging around at +2.5 for most of the week. The only loss the Eagles suffered with Jalen Hurt under center was to the Washington Commanders, who ran the ball effectively and forced Philadelphia into four turnovers. It goes without saying that San Francisco has much better personnel than Washington, and a full field goal is the value side in what rates to be an air-tight grinder.

Jalen Hurts looked plenty healthy as the Eagles demolished the Giants in the divisional round. But facing the 49ers' defense -- which has allowed the fewest points and yards while racking up the most interceptions -- is another challenge entirely. San Francisco will slow the pace, and Philly's ferocious pass rush, with a grinding attack. The 49ers can toss the ball to Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel to move the chains versus the NFL's 23rd-rated rush efficiency defense. Brock Purdy has been more than a game manager; his agility and ability to extend plays will be critical Sunday. Kyle Shanahan is 7-1 ATS in the playoffs, his lone pointspread loss coming in the Super Bowl. This game should be a pick'-em, so I really love getting San Francisco to +3 (-120).

For 49ers backers, patience has paid off. A line that seemed stuck at +2.5 has gravitated toward three, which could make a difference in a tight game. Against Dallas, Brock Purdy handled the nerves that often afflict rookie QBs in the postseason. He threw for no TDs, but a star-studded offense with RB Christian McCaffrey, TE George Kittle and Swiss army knife Deebo Samuels allows for conservatism. The starkest statistical difference between the squads is rush defense. The Niners allow 3.4 yards per carry, second fewest in the league, in contrast to the Eagles' 4.6. Hard to tell if Philly QB Jalen Hurts has fully recovered from a shoulder injury. The Eagles might limit the runs that separates him from his peers.

Always a risk on Watkins picking this up on one catch, but he had as many targets last week against the Giants as I did and has topped this receiving number once since Week 15. Watkins has posted 14 or fewer receiving yards in eight of his 13 games with tight end Dallas Goedert active.

The 49ers have activated RB Tevin Coleman to the active roster, which sure makes it sound like Elijah Mitchell is in danger of missing this game injured. That has to lead to more carries for McCaffrey. The SL Model with Mitchell in the lineup had McCaffrey with 14.8 carries for 72 yards and Mitchell with 9.6 for 48. The Niners perhaps normally wouldn't use McCaffrey as much as a runner to avoid wearing him down, but they would have next week off ahead of the Super Bowl. I thought about over Deebo Samuel rushing yards too ...

Lot of juice here so it may get to four catches for Kittle. Since Brock Purdy took over as the starter, Kittle has at least four in every game but one. The Eagles have been allowing 4.1 receptions to tight ends this season. If Elijah Mitchell is banged up as it appears and perhaps has to leave the game, that would mean Purdy in theory probably throws a bit less to McCaffrey as he would be needed more as a rusher.

After a quiet game last week against the New York Giants, I expect a much bigger performance from Philly's WR1. AJ averaged nearly 90 receiving yards this season and has had at least 70 receiving yards in six of his previous seven appearances. The 49ers are very stout up front and I believe the Eagles will look to attack SF through the air and as a result, AJ will wind up with a big target share. I think Philly will look to exploit their biggest mismatch and it wouldn't surprise me if Brown exceeds 100 yards in this game, which is also why I like his alt lines as well.

While I would argue these are the sharpest lines we've seen all year in the NFL, I think this is a good spot to speculate. Jalen Hurts injured his shoulder back in week 15 against the Bears and since then has 18 rushing attempts for only 47 yards (2.6 YPC). The 49ers surrendered only 213 rushing yards to opposing QBs this season (fifth fewest in the NFL). I believe Hurts and the Eagles game plan will be to attack SF through the air and as a result may limit rushing volume for Jalen. I consider this more of a lean but I do think Jalen will lean on his arm more than his legs in this matchup.

Despite the offensive weapons on both teams, this could be a low-scoring affair. They both have excellent defenses. The 49ers allowed just 16.3 points per game during the regular season, while the Eagles allowed 20.2 points per game. Last week, the 49ers limited Dak Prescott to 206 yards despite him having 37 pass attempts. As good as Hurts has been this season, he has thrown for at least 252 yards in just five games.

The Eagles can beat you at all three levels offensively with a two-headed running game, field-stretching wide receivers and one of the tight ends in football over the middle. They have been the most complete team all season. They're playing at home. And they have a defense that will give Brock Purdy fits in the pocket similar to how the Cowboys did a week ago. The 49ers, meanwhile, are starting that rookie QB on the road in one of the sport's toughest environments. And while they also have an ultra-talented roster on both sides, they won't be able to slow Philadelphia offensively and create as many opportunities via turnovers as they did against Dallas. If the Eagles can score, the Eagles can win -- and at under a field goal, I like their chances.

This total may keep ticking down so we'll grab it now. We saw a pretty good defense in Dallas largely shut down Niners rookie QB Brock Purdy, and the Philly defense is much better -- especially against the pass and in regards to pressure (whopping 75 sacks on the year). Purdy had a brutal 39.6 passer rating vs. Cowboys pressure. On the flip side, it should be tough for that terrific Philly rushing offense against the San Francisco defense that ranked No. 2 against the rush and hasn't allowed even a 70-yard rusher on the season. The 49ers (300.6 YPG allowed) and Eagles (301.5 YPG allowed) ranked 1-2 in total defense during the regular season.

Dallas Goedert was heavily involved last week, catching five passes for 58 yards and a touchdown in Philly's blowout of the GIants. Now he faces a San Francisco defense with elite linebackers and safeties, a unit that allows just under 40 receiving yards per game to the tight end position. In the divisional round, Dalton Schultz managed five catches on 10 targets for 27 yards. Look for Jalen Hurts to rely more on his stellar wideouts than his awesome tight end, owing to this particular matchup. Go Under 45.5 receiving yards.

The 49ers are coming off gutting out a 19-12 win against the Cowboys, their lowest point total in a Brock Purdy game. Now they'll travel cross country to face the only defense with a better sack rate than Dallas, and it's by a wide margin. That's not a situation where I'd expect Purdy to succeed, and we haven't really seen what he looks like running the offense when down more than a few points. While I think Philly's offense is good enough to have some success against the 49ers defense, I also don't see a big point total on their side. This may be similar to last week's 49ers game, just with San Francisco on the losing end this time.

I ultimately picked the Eagles to cover because of three factors: 1) Home-field advantage; 2) A pass rush that led the league with 70 sacks and had four players with double-digit sacks; and 3) The 49ers starting a rookie quarterback, Brock Purdy. No rookie quarterback has ever started a Super Bowl, and Purdy appeared rattled at times against the Cowboys on Sunday when San Francisco scored 19 points, its worst offensive output with him behind center this season. Also, this season Purdy faced just two opponents on the road: Las Vegas (a 37-34 win in overtime) and Seattle (a 21-13 win). I think this situation is too big for the rookie quarterback. Meanwhile the Eagles are who I thought they were for most of the season. Philadelphia covers, with the score around 34-17.

The Brock Purdy story has been amazing and it's why a team should draft a QB every year no matter what even if in Round 7 (you listening Bears?). You never know when you may strike gold. Purdy will be the fifth rookie quarterback to start a conference championship and none of the previous four won it. In reality, Mr. Irrelevant has played just one road game as a starter: Week 15 in Seattle. Yes, the Niners were in Las Vegas in Week 17, but that was half 49ers fans if not more. It will be a completely different environment in Philadelphia, which owns the NFL's No. 1 pass defense (and nearly set an NFL record in sacks) and made Daniel Jones look inept in the Divisional Round.

This is expected to be a close game between two stacked rosters, but the location and QB makes all the difference here. Brock Purdy finally looked shaky for much of the Cowboys game and it limited the 49ers to field goal tries rather than TDs. The Eagles have the strongest pass rush in the league and have allowed 200 net passing yards just once in the last seven games. With Purdy going on the road in this massive pressure situation, don't expect much from the 49ers offense. The Eagles offense had no issues in the first half against the Giants despite health questions entering the game around Jalen Hurts and Lane Johnson, and they should be able to get to 20+ points and cover here.