The Eagles beat the Giants by six two weeks ago in a game they largely walked through, and Philadelphia was a 7-point favorite at New York a month ago (won 48-22). So excuse me if this line comes off a bit strange, even if Jalen Hurts may not be 100%. (He’s not on the injury report and got an extra week of rest.) The Giants haven’t won at Lincoln Financial Field since 2013, and while they have an incredible cover streak as an underdog this season (11-2 ATS), the Eagles are just a far superior team in most phases – including up front. Look for Philadelphia to contain Daniel Jones and get plenty of pressure on the surging quarterback.

Interesting that this has dropped from as high as 45.5. Do I expect Jones to carry 17 times last like week? Definitely not but he is facing the NFL's No. 1 pass defense so he should be taking off plenty with good coverage on pass plays. During the regular season, Philadelphia allowed the seventh-most QB scrambles and fifth-most yards per scramble (9.2 yards).

As we noted in picking the Giants +8, Jalen Hurts' shoulder is still less than 100 percent. It's his throwing shoulder, so why wouldn't we go under? I expect a heavy dose of Miles Sanders and Boston Scott on the ground against a Giants defense that struggled against the run. The SL Model has Hurts finishing with 227 yards passing. If the Eagles are up big in the second half, which I don't expect but obviously possible, he will be out of there ASAP. Hurts has topped 245.5 just twice in his past eight outings.

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported today what I think we already knew: Jalen Hurts is still not 100 percent off that shoulder injury, so we have to take 8 here as one hit could knock him out. Guess you could say that about any QB, but it seems especially true here.

The health of Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is a concern, which might inspire an even more run-heavy attack aimed at limiting his exposure. On the flip side, Philadelphia's run defense has been its weakness, and it's likely the Giants will try to stay ahead of the chains by establishing both Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones in the run game. Look for time-consuming drives by both clubs to limit possessions and send this game Under the total.

The Giants have been made into a winner thanks to good coaching with a plan. The long-term goal to get them to this spot is happening. They're battle-tested with a running QB in Daniel Jones who last week went off with a 78-yard rush performance coupled with 301 yards of passing and two TD passes. He rushed for 91 yards in a Week 17 performance. The Giants have covered each of the last five weeks. They covered the number better than any team this season going 14-4 ATS. I bet the Giants because I haven’t seen the Eagles cover in their last four games. I’m betting that they can’t just flip the switch and be the Super-Eagles from Week 14 when they buried the Giants. I’m on the Giants to cover.

Injuries limited Goedert to just 12 games this season. In those 12 games, he finished with at least 48 receiving yards seven times. He just missed that threshold against the Giants in Week 18, catching six of seven targets for 46 yards. The Giants were torched by T.J. Hockenson for 129 yards in the Wild Card Round, and allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends during the regular season. Look for Goedert to exploit that weakness.

I expect this game to be an old-fashioned NFC East grinder, as opposed to a shootout. While Eagles QB Jalen Hurts doesn’t carry an injury designation, I expect him to be somewhat limited with the rushing efficiency and perhaps a little rusty. Not to mention, the NYG defense is healthier, particularly in the secondary. Both teams are likely to try and establish the run, particularly the Eagles against NYG’s porous run defense. I see some time -consuming possessions, running of clock on both sides and a few more punt formations than expected.

Jones is coming off arguably the best game of his career against the Vikings and as a result we are getting an inflated line against the Eagles. New York's signal caller has only eclipsed 230 passing yards just twice in the regular season and that was against the Vikings and Lions who are two of the league's worst coverage units. Now he faces an Eagles pass defense that is 1st in passing DVOA and surrendered the fewest passing yards in the NFL this season (179 yards per game). I expect the Giants to shift to a much run heavier game plan and as a result limit passing volume. This is a big ask for Jones who averaged just 200 passing yards per game.

The Giants are hoping third time's the charm against the Eagles, and the run game figures to be a key component of Brian Daboll's gameplan. Philly has allowed the fourth most rush yards to QBs all year but on far fewer attempts than other teams in the top five, giving up nearly 6.5 yards per carry. Jones found time versus an awful Minnesota pass defense to rush 17 times last week in the upset win, and the Giants should go back to the well and generate first downs with his legs this week. All it takes it one big rush to help this get over, and the Eagles have been susceptible to that, including Tyrod Taylor posting a 32-yarder in the first meeting. I think Jones tops 50 yards here.

Dallas Goedert drew seven targets in Week 18 versus the Giants, though he failed (just barely) to clear this yardage total. I'm expecting a bigger night Saturday with a healthier Jalen Hurts. The Giants rank 31st in coverage grade versus tight ends, per PFF, and just got shredded again by T.J. Hockenson. They also blitz at the highest rate in the NFL. That leads to quick throws to the tight end. Go Over 47.5 receiving yards.

The Eagles rolled in the first meeting between these teams by leaning on rushing attack and creating pressure on Daniel Jones, who was sacked seven times. The Giants did a great job planning around that pressure in the rematch and kept Davis Webb relatively clean, and they'll be executing that gameplan with better personnel this time around. Philly's defense is vulnerable against the run, and I expect Brian Daboll to have some schematic wild cards up his sleeve. Jalen Hurts (likely) and Lane Johnson (certainly) will be playing at less than 100 percent, and we saw in Week 18 that Hurts' injury caused the Eagles to struggle more on third down and in the red zone than usual. If the Giants can win in those situational metrics again, this should be a close game.