The Chiefs have been a poor cover team this season, while the Jaguars are surging at just the right time. Still, it took a lot for Jacksonville to come back in the wild card round, and plenty of emotions were spent in that rousing home victory. Now it faces a Kansas City team that already beat it by 10 earlier this season in Arrowhead Stadium. That game featured three Chiefs turnovers, JuJu Smith-Schuster getting knocked out cold and the Jags recovering an onside kick. We already know Andy Reid is nails when his teams are healthy and rested coming off a bye. This time, KC has its full complement of playmakers, an improving defense, homefield advantage (possibly for the only time in these playoffs despite being the top seed) and an opponent that cannot seem to stop anyone through the air. I have the Chiefs as 12-point favorite, giving considerable cushion at this line despite it surging a full point.

The rookie Pacheco has become the clear main guy from a running perspective in the Kansas City backfield as Jerick McKinnon now is used largely as a receiver. Pacheco has topped this number in eight of his past nine games -- he had 107 yards in the first meeting vs. the Jags.

Kansas City was 20th in passing DVOA during the regular season and there's the clear blowout factor possibility as if the Jags get down big like they did last week, Lawrence is going to be passing on nearly every play. He had 288 yards vs. the Chargers in the Wild Card comeback and 259 in the first meeting with the Chiefs.

Last weekend’s Wild-Card playoff round was a haven for Overs at the wide receiver position. That wasn't the case at running back, as the majority went under their receiving props. One team I expect to translate their regular-season success to the postseason is Kansas City. Look for Jerick McKinnon to continue to have an uncanny impact out of the backfield, compared to what he provides in the run game. Take his over receiving yards.

The Jaguars' late push to get into the postseason, and last week’s victory against the Chargers, corresponded with Evan Engram’s success. In fact, he has at least 62 receiving yards in four of his past six games. Yet, Engram has always had a tendency to disappear when it matters most. Kansas City held him to three catches for 14 yards in their November meeting. Take the under.

These clubs met in the regular season, and the Chiefs prevailed 27-17 despite a rather lackluster performance. They turned the ball over three times and allowed Jacksonville to hang around for most of the game. The Jags couldn't capitalize and, with much more on the line Saturday, look for the rested Chiefs to give an inspired and urgent performance. Jacksonville has been a great story and has a bright future, but last week's epic comeback against the Chargers will stand as the apex of its breakout season.

Our SportslineAI is predicting Christian Kirk to have 6.1 receptions, and it makes sense, as Kirk’s regular-season high in targets (12) and receptions (nine) came against the Chiefs. This is a bet that the Jaguars are down early and will have to throw the ball more often than not. The books agree with that premise, as the line for Trevor Lawrence’s completions this week (23.5) is the third-highest for QBs, after Mahomes and Burrow. Lawrence is going to be passing a bunch, yet Kirk’s reception line isn’t too inflated.

I did not do well on totals in the Wild Card round, but the weather does not look very offense friendly in Kansas City on Saturday late afternoon/evening with temps in the 30s and potential snow showers. The Jacksonville defense played really well down the stretch in the regular season and actually played quite well last weekend -- Trevor Lawrence simply kept putting that unit in bad field position in the first half. These clubs combined for only 44 points in KC earlier this year when weather wasn't a factor. There is a fairly heavy public lean on the under, which makes me nervous, but it has hit in six of KC's past seven at home. Not sure if I will have a side play.

There’s a 52% chance of rain in Kansas City with temperatures at 38 degrees. The way I see it is Jacksonville is playing at its best and they’re on a free roll after the massive comeback last week. In a way, it all started with the Chiefs in Week 10 when the Jags were getting +10 and lost 27-17. They had just beaten the Raiders in Week 9, pushed at the Chiefs, beat the Ravens, and lost to the Lions but haven’t looked back since. They’ve been in the playoffs since Week 12. Six straight wins, all under the pressure of must-win games. We’ve learned so much since the first meeting so is it fair to say the Jaguars are only a point better than when they last met? The Chiefs are great, but the number catches them often -- just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10. I’m taking the points with the Jaguars.

With the Jaguars playing catchup against the Chargers last week, Kirk was targeted 14 times. That enabled him to finish with eight receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown. He was targeted at least eight times in 10 games during the regular season, finishing with at least 65 receiving yards in eight of them. The Jaguars should have to throw a lot to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and company, so a heavy target share should help Kirk push past this total.

This is a great matchup for Kelce. The Jaguars not only allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game during the regular season, but they allowed the fourth-most receiving yards in the league to opposing tight ends. When Kelce faced them in Week 10, he caught six of seven targets for 81 yards and a touchdown. Patrick Mahomes should look his way early and often as the Chiefs look to advance, making the over the way to go.

This is a rematch of a Week 10 game where the Chiefs won by 10 points and Mahomes had his season-high in rush attempts against a Jaguars defense that has allowed the third-most rushing yards in the league. Mahomes has broken the 20-yard mark 10 times this season, but he really turns on the jets in the postseason, where he's had at least 29 rushing yards in six of his last nine playoff games. He should have no problem throwing all over Jacksonville, but there will be a few times where he sees a first down ahead of him by running the ball and he'll take that low-risk outcome over risking a pass, helping him to top this total.

The Jaguars are much better than the version that showed up in Kansas City in Week 10 and lost 27-17. However, it's hard to ignore how dominant the Chiefs were in that game. They averaged 7.8 yards per play to Jacksonville's 5.2 and won by double digits despite being minus-3 in turnover margin and getting surprised by an onside kick. Chris Jones was unblockable. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce faced little resistance. Not that the Chiefs need extra motivation, but Jaguars safety Andre Cisco delivered two vicious hits that weren't flagged. One knocked JuJu Smith-Schuster out with a concussion. Jacksonville has committed 12 turnovers in the last five games. If the Jags turn it over a couple times in Kansas City, the NFL's best team should win going away.

This spread falls into the dangerous no-man's land. The Chiefs are a likely winner; the Jaguars are fully capable of being competitive. Let's rely, however uneasily, on a rule of thumb: If you are confident that a team will win straight-up and the line is in single digits, give the points. Doing so with Kansas City is backed by some data. Jacksonville's soft spot is third-down defense, with a No. 29 ranking, and K.C. thrives in such scenarios. The SU records of coach Andy Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes coming out of bye weeks: 28-5 and 9-1. The case can be made that the Chiefs have underachieved, in light of its 5-9-1 ATS record as a favorite. The belief here is that the bye will allow K.C. to refill its tank while the Jaguars' could be close to empty after last weekend's mind boggling comeback.

The Chiefs won the first meeting between these teams by 10, but that was with a minus-3 turnover margin (including two lost fumbles) and a 486-315 edge in yardage. They should've won by more, and they'll be up against a team lucky to advance after a minus-5 turnover margin. The Jaguars defense is 22nd in pass yards per play, 29th on third down and 24th in the red zone, so expect the Chiefs to score a bunch of points. Trevor Lawrence will need to be much sharper than he has been the last two weeks to give his team a chance, and even then the Chiefs could still win by 10 points. I'd play this one up to Chiefs -9.5