While I hoped for stronger value with the Packers, they are still the play at under a touchdown. Green Bay is not only coming off the bye, San Francisco is playing on just six days rest, increasing that advantage. This will be the 49ers sixth road game in their last eight, while the Packers are 3-0 ATS as a favorite of six or less at home and 8-0 overall at home this season. Aaron Rodgers has come through without his playmakers against better competition already this season, yet on Saturday night, they’ll all be in the lineup sans MVS. In a battle with Jimmy Garoppolo, Green Bay should be able to take advantage with a turnover or two that will ice it late. Hopefully not for the last time this season: Back the Pack.

San Francisco is coming off a great win against the Cowboys, where we saw the versatility of its offense on full display. The 49ers should have some success here in that regard. However, their defense will be challenged throughout by the passing attack of the Packers, more than it was against the Cowboys. That should be enough to make this one about a touchdown difference.

Given QB Jimmy Garoppolo’s various ailments and lack of experience playing in an icebox, the 49ers were going to stick to the ground anyway. Now, with temperatures possibly in the single digits and snow in the forecast, San Fran could play this one under a 10-foot-high ceiling, as few times as they will throw. With pass-rusher master Nick Bosa (concussion) cleared, counterpart Aaron Rodgers could look mortal. His completion percentage sinks when under pressure. Forget A-Rod’s 14-6 Over record in the playoffs. This could be a throwback game to the Bart Starr era, when 24 points might assure a win.

I’m hopping off the 49ers trolley I've been riding at Green Bay, where the Packers are 8-0 this season. I have concerns about Jimmy Garoppolo’s shoulder and his thumb after an errant throw almost cost them the game last week at Dallas. I think the Packers start fast and put Jimmy G at a disadvantage of having to come back. What I like most about the Packers here is that they’re 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS against 2021 playoff teams this season, including the 30-28 win at San Francisco in Week 3. Take the Packers to cover.

It's the sixth road game in eight weeks for the Niners, who are banged up and on a short week. Green Bay is rested and totally healthy. This feels absolutely like the Divisional Round last year when a warm-weather California team (Rams/Niners) with an untrustworthy QB (Jared Goff/Jimmy Garoppolo) lost by two TDs at chilly Lambeau Field. I generally don't go this high on the ML, as it's certainly possible that GB wins by fewer than 6 points, but I'm parlaying with the Under -- which I got early this week at 47.5. I don't expect a ton of points with a low of minus-1 in Green Bay.

Right now, San Francisco is my pick to win the Super Bowl, so I love the 49ers at this number. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are sensational, and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is playing winning football. San Francisco also is playing strong defense, which you can't say about Green Bay. The Packers have been prone to give up points. I'll happily take the 49ers.

I'm just a sucker for betting the 49ers as underdogs and fading them as favorites. It's a solid plan that's worked well for me, as they're 25-17 ATS as underdogs under Kyle Shanahan compared to 16-24-1 ATS as favorites. Also, these two met earlier in the season, with Green Bay winning 30-28 in San Francisco. While playing at home gives the Packers an added advantage, I don't think they're so much better than the Niners that they should be favored by this much. So I'm going to take San Francisco and then cross my fingers and hope the inevitable Jimmy G mistake doesn't kill me.

These two teams met in the regular season, with the 49ers rallying back from an early 17-0 deficit to take the lead with less than a minute left before the Packers nailed a game-winning field goal. That game came before the evolution of the 49ers rushing attack, and with Green Bay 30th in yards per rush allowed, they could have a lot of trouble slowing down Deebo Samuel and Co. on the ground. But the Packers are getting healthier on the O-line and on defense, and coupled with a great homefield advantage and the best QB in the game, I feel they should be laying seven even against a team playing well on both sides of the ball.

The last time the Packers faced an elite ground game, they surrendered 219 rushing yards to the Browns at Lambeau Field and failed to cover in a narrow win. I'm expecting something similar Saturday night. Elijah Mitchell gained 85 of his 96 yards after contact versus the Cowboys; he didn't play in the regular-season matchup (30-28 Green Bay win). Now he and Deebo Samuel, who was barely used as a running back then, are facing a Green Bay defense that gives up 4.9 yards per carry. Of course I'm concerned with Jimmy Garoppolo's shoulder and thumb injuries, but he is practicing fully and will play. Grab the points as we get an NFC playoff thriller.

Jimmy Garoppolo might have grown up in Illinois, but I'm not trusting him in a cold-weather game and it's going to be a frozen tundra Saturday night at Lambeau Field. As of now, the low for Saturday is 2 degrees with wind chills well below zero -- winds from the northwest at around 10 mph and the occasional 20 mph gusts. There's a 30% chance of snow, too. This total already has dropped a full point at some books.